MOScout Daily Update: MOScout Final Forecast - $$$ into GOP Sen Campaign Committee - Cody Smith Hits $100K in Giving and more...

MOScout Updated Forecast

You can see my final predictions for next month’s election here.  Also there’s a different spreadsheet – with same info, just listing candidates’ names – here.

I am at +3 Dems in the House.  That’s five flips: House 13 (Marshall termed); House 35 (Cross termed); an upset in House 44 (Toalson); House 70 (Matthiesen), and House 135 (Helms). And I have Dems giving two back: House 97 (Revis), and House 118 (Harris termed), for a final net +3.

I see no movement in the Senate races.  Everyone holds.

One big takeaways: Jefferson County in this forecast is gone to Dems – locked up red.  Republicans take the final House seat – Ben Harris’ 118; he’s termed and Michael McGirl yard signs litter the hills of Potosi.  One Republican said that they saw the Kavanaugh bounce most pronounced in JeffCo.

GOP’s State Senate Campaign Committee Loads Up

A bunch of checks came into the Senate Republicans’ campaign committee yesterday. Nearly $200K, plus another $100K into a friendly PAC, Missouri Senate Conservatives Fund from Herzog Contracting Corp.

An insider tells me that there will be more checks in the coming days.  Republicans are reloading for the final round.  And they doubt that Dems will show similar strength, giving them the closing edge in the potentially close races of Senate 22 and Senate 34.

Dems and GOP both spent heavily earlier in the year in the battle over Senate 17 (Silvey retiring; Arthur won) which Dems flipped.  But the cost is that Dems – as the minority party – have had a harder time rebuilding their war-chest.  And their candidates have generally displayed lackluster fundraising.  The result has been an asymmetry of resources which is one reason why Dems won’t get any new Senate seats in two weeks in Missouri.

Smith HRCC Giving Hits $100K

Rep. Cody Smith contributed $14,500 to the House Republican Campaign Committee yesterday.  That brings his giving to HRCC to $100K, which very well may be a record for a freshman.  Smith is vice-chair of the House Budget Committee.

Rumorville: Lamping Recruiting Lager?

Two sources tell me there’s a rumor afoot that former Sen. John Lamping – who has made no secret of his desire for Governor Mike Parson to face a Republican primary – has been “pushing” former Sen. Brad Lager to enter the 2020 guv fray.

Lager has run twice for statewide before.  He lost to Democrat Clint Zweifel in 2008, and lost the Republican lieutenant governor’s primary (to Peter Kinder) in 2012.

Here Come the Hits

The final weeks the ads and mailers can get a little loose with the truth. 

In Senate 34, Martin Rucker gets “confused” with his dad.  See it here.

In House 50, an HRDD radio ad says that Michela Skelton “advocates for violent protest against police.”  See it here.

Smithfield to get Trump Dollars?

This got passed around yesterday.  It’s the Washington Post article about how Smithfield – now owned by a Chinese company – may get federal funds.  See it here.

A Chinese-owned pork producer is eligible for federal payments under President Trump’s $12 billion farm bailout, a program established to help U.S. farmers hurt by Trump’s trade war with China. Smithfield Foods, a Virginia-based pork producer acquired in 2013 by a Chinese conglomerate now named WH Group, can apply for federal money under the bailout program created this summer, said Agriculture Department spokesman Carl E. Purvis… [T]he possibility of money flowing to foreign-owned firms underscores the difficulty of trying to craft government programs that benefit only domestic firms. The international reach of companies makes it hard to ensure that federal dollars stay in U.S. hands, regardless of their intended target. The bailout program has also angered smaller hog producers, who expressed frustration that it appears likely to help large, international farms that already dominate the U.S. pork market…

Smithfield has a presence in Missouri.  Their lobbyist in Jefferson City is Jewell Patek.

eMailbag on Getting Hit for Being Chummy With Greitens

Martin Rucker II (in Senate 34) now has a radio ad out that ties Tony Luetkemeyer directly to Eric Greitens…

Help Wanted

Department of Economic Development seeks General Counsel.  “Serve as General Counsel for the Department Director on departmental matters including tax credits, economic development initiatives, projects and programs, policy matters and legislation; Provide legal advice on a wide variety of issues to business, community and workforce development program administrators and other department personnel; Provide guidance to department personnel to aid in compliance with federal and state laws regarding programs; Provide guidance to assist department personnel in compliance with laws affecting day-to-day operations of a government agency including procurement, open records and employment law; Perform complex legal research, analyze and prepare formal legal opinions in response to proposals, questions and issues presented to the Director, program managers, human resources, boards and commissions; Prepare and/or review documents related to the administration of various incentive programs, including applications, guidelines, contracts, loan, loan guarantee and grant agreements; Draft Department legislation; draft and file administrative rules for Department; review legislation and determine the impact to Departmental operations and programs…”  See it here.

Events

Rep. Steven Roberts fundraiser at Cafe Napoli, Clayton – 5PM

Lobbyist Registrations

Travis Brown, Steve Tilley and Thomas Robbins added Heartland Hyperloop Inc.

Dave Berry, Travis Brown, Deanna Hemphill, and Tracy King added City of St. Louis DBA The Fly314 Coalition.

Dave Berry deleted National Restaurant Association, Sports Capital Holding LLC, and Kiel Opera House.

Travis Brown deleted Signature Health Services, Sports Capital Holding, LLC, St. Louis Blues Hockey Club, Missouri Ambulatory Surgery Center Association, Scottrade Center, and Kiel Opera House.

$5K+ Contributions

Missouri Senate Conservatives Fund - $100,000 from Herzog Contracting Corp.

SaferMO.Com - $10,000 from Springfield Area Chamber of Commerce.

SaferMO.Com - $10,000 from Hallmark Cards Inc.

SaferMO.Com - $10,000 from Kansas City Power & Light.

Find the Cures - $15,000 from Bradley Bradshaw.

SaferMO.Com - $550,000 from Heavy Constructors Association.

IBEW Local Union #545 PAC Fund - $9,150 from MSCEW PAC.

Missouri Senate Campaign Committee - $10,000 from Association of Dental Support Organizations.

Missouri Senate Campaign Committee - $12,500 from August Busch III.

Missouri Senate Campaign Committee - $20,000 from Drury Development Corporation.

Missouri Senate Campaign Committee - $25,000 from Hegeman for Senate.

Missouri Senate Campaign Committee - $25,000 from Romine for Senate.

Missouri Senate Campaign Committee - $100,000 from Rex Sinquefield.

Missouri Senate Campaign Committee - $7,500 from United Health Group Inc.

Missouri Senate Campaign Committee - $25,000 from Uniting Missouri PAC.

Accountability PAC - $10,000 from Roy Pfautch.

Safer Families for Missouri - $11,400 from Shamberg, Johnson & Bergman.

MO Republican Party - $25,000 from Jed Manocherian.

CWA-COPE Political Contributions Federal Committee - $16,750 from Communications Workers of America- COPE PCC.

Raise Up Missouri - $11,000 from United Food and Commercial Workers International Union.

MOVE Ballot Fund - $6,825 from Raise Up Missouri.

KCFOP PAC - $25,000 from Kansas City Fraternal Order of Police Lodge 99.

Committee To Elect Jeff Roorda - $5,001 from Jeff Roorda Revocable Trust.

UFCW Active Ballot Club-Missouri Federal Committee - $9,000 from United Food and Commercial Workers International Union Active Ballot Club.

UFCW Active Ballot Club-Missouri Federal Committee - $20,100 from United Food and Commercial Workers International Union Active Ballot Club.

House Republican Campaign Committee Inc - $10,000 from Association of Dental Support Organizations.

Supporters of Ashley Guadado Thrasher - $10,000 from Buchanan County GOP.

House Republican Campaign Committee - $5,001 from Sharpe for Rep.

House Republican Campaign Committee - $90,000 from Rex Sinquefield.

Citizens for Jerry Nolte - $10,000 from Jerry Nolte.

Birthdays

Happy birthdays to SuperLawyer Chuck Hatfield, Sen. Jay Wasson, Brian Wahby, Jon Galloway, and Craig Stevenson.