MOScout Daily Update: Looking Ahead at Redistricting Battle - Political Gender Gap - Cleaver to the Rescue and more...
Don’t Miss Last Friday’s Update
If you were among the scores of last week’s “out of office” replies, click on Friday’s morning update here. It had a trio of stories: a new Republican campaign committee was formed to revise CLEAN Missouri’s redistricting plan before it takes effect in 2021; Jackson County Prosecutor Jean Peters Baker announced she’s running for Dem Party Chair; and Kirk Mathews resigned his House seat. We’ll start with the follow-ups to those items…
Follow-Up on Fair Missouri
Here’s what folks see as the likely path for the Republicans’ effort to revise the recently passed redistricting changes…
· First - There will legal challenges. While I find predicting judicial outcomes even more vexing than legislative outcomes, folks think that the redistricting portion will likely be standing after the all the legal bills.
· Second - The legislature will act even as the court challenges continue on a separate track. The Republican supermajority will put an alternative redistricting plan before voters in 2020. (The Census occurs that year, but won’t be complete until the end of the year. 2021 is the redistricting year to impact 2022 elections). While CLEAN Missouri prioritizes competitiveness in the drawing of the districts, Republicans want to emphasize “compactness” as the standard. That keeps the urban Democratic voters all bunched up into few districts.
This issue is a shrugger to your average voter, so Republicans will look to do what Dems did – add some ballot candy to the proposal. But they’ll have to be careful to stay on the right side of Hammerschmidt and not have “multiple issues” on the same proposal.
CLEAN managed to avoid Hammerschmidt by only proposing changes “in the legislative arena.” That’s the playbook Republicans are using and brainstorming around. For example, one idea floated would be to suspend legislators’ pay if they don’t pass the budget by the constitutional deadline.
Why This Matters A Lot
Despite the fact that most Missourians couldn’t give a rats about this issue, it has the potential to upset the work of the General Assembly. It would create an earthquake in the Senate with a Democratic filibuster and a Republican PQ tearing the body apart, and likely sinking other legislation with it.
Follow-Up on Mathews’ Resignation
CLEAN Missouri also contained changes to the wait period for legislators to register as lobbyists. It will increase from the current 6-month wait (after the end of your term), to two years. As a result, it’s expected that we will see more resignations. (It’s unclear whether Mathews’ resignation was made with an eye toward lobbying in the future).
CLEAN will take effect on December 6. That gives folks ten more days to resign under the old rules.
For many legislators – especially termed legislators – it’s not about “cashing out,” as much as it’s about keeping options open. This includes other public service jobs – for example, some positions in the executive branch – which would require one to lobby the legislature. CLEAN, unlike the Sauer Amendment, makes no exemption for public service.
eMailbag on Peters Baker Announcement
She said she’s “ready to get off the sidelines” and start helping the Dem party. How is that a message that will resonate with people who have been fighting their asses off the last 4 years or more? She’s likely a shoo-in for the job, but her announcement was condescending and insulting for everyone that has been working hard while she’s been “on the sidelines”.
Political Gender Gap
Somewhere during the holiday weekend, Axios wrote about the gender gap between Republican and Democrats in Congress. It quoted this article by AP’s Alan Fram.
West Virginia’s Carol Miller will be the only Republican woman entering the 435-member House as a newcomer in January. She’ll join what may be the chamber’s smallest group of female GOP lawmakers since the early 1990s — as few as 13 of at least 199 Republicans. Democrats will have at least 89. Numbers like those have Republicans searching for answers to the glaring gender disparity in their ranks — and fast. The concern is that Democrats’ lopsided edge among women voters could carry over to 2020, when President Donald Trump will be seeking a second term and House and Senate control will be in play. If the current trend continues, Republicans risk being branded the party of men… “Women don’t like the tweets,” said Sarah Chamberlain, president of the Republican Main Street Partnership, a moderate GOP group. “I don’t know how to tone down the rhetoric. If I could have a fantasy, one wish, that would be my one wish.”
Women backed Democratic candidates over Republicans on Election Day by a telling 57 percent to 41 percent, according to AP VoteCast, a wide-ranging survey of the electorate conducted by The Associated Press. Women broke by similar margins in the crucial suburbs, where Democratic victories in swing districts helped power the gains they needed to win House control. Men supported Republicans over Democrats, 51 percent to 46 percent. Strategists note the issue isn’t just about current personalities; it’s about party infrastructure….
In Missouri
The same trend applies…
Women make up a majority (6 of 10) of the Democratic Caucus of the Missouri Senate. Meanwhile just 12.5% (3 of 24) of the Republican Caucus will be women this January.
In the House, 14.6% (17 of 116) of the GOP Caucus will be women, compared to 40.4% (19 of 47) of the Democratic Caucus.
And
These number impact leadership roles. Both the upper and lower chambers’ Democratic caucuses will be led by women AGAIN.
Not Unrelated
This explains, at least partially, why Team Parson is so focused on appointing a woman to the vacant state treasurer position.
Cleaver to The Rescue
KSHB reports that “U.S. Rep. Emanuel Cleaver II on Friday helped pull a man to safety after a fiery head-on crash in Kansas City…” See it here.
Cleaver, D-Kansas City, drove past the crash around 11 a.m. near the Swope Dog Park in the 5000 block of East Gregory Boulevard. He “immediately rushed to the scene to help,” his office said in a statement. At the scene, Cleaver saw a man who was unconscious behind the wheel of a car. Cleaver and three other bystanders helped pull the man to safety, according to the statement. As two of the bystanders helped keep the man conscious, Cleaver tried to put out a car fire that had started after the crash. He left when paramedics arrived. The extent of the man's injuries was not immediately known. “I was just helping the same as every other person on the scene,” Cleaver said in the statement. “Tonight, my prayers will be for this man and his family during this holiday season.”
Lobbyists Registrations
Jay Reichard added Orexo US Inc.
Adam Albach added Missouri Department of Corrections.
Joseph Miller deleted Missouri Primary Care Association.
Thomas Robbins and Steven Tilley added Property Assessment Review, and Green Farms Missouri LLC.
Thomas Robbins added Sixteen Thirty Fund.
New Committees
Fair Missouri was formed. It’s a campaign committee. Its treasurer is William Greim Jr.
$5K+ Contributions
UAW Region 5 Midwest States Political Action Committee (PAC) (MO) - $6,000 from UAW Region 5 Exchange Account.
Fair Missouri - $150,000 from Republican State Committee.
Residents For Hazelwood Inc - $25,000 from Hazelwood Industrial Development Authority.
Birthdays
Happy birthday to Jane Dueker.
Congratulations
To Rep. David Gregory on his engagement to Paige Colleen Gruber. From Facebook… It’s official. I am honored to say I proposed to the most perfect girl in the world today. She said “Yes”