Thursday, October 27, 2016

Corlew on the Air

Rep. Kevin Corlew, running for re-election in House 14, is on the ad. See his TV ad here.  “As your state representative, I'm fighting to guarantee every working family can earn a living wage.”

Baker on the Air

See Judy Baker’s first TV ad here.  With less money than Sen. Eric Schmitt has, Baker’s ad is a “two-fer,” both a positive for herself and a negative at Schmitt.

Schmitt on the other hand has released two positive ads, and presumably will hit Baker here in the final weeks as well.

New Hawley Ad

Josh Hawley release a contrast ad.  See it here.  The contrast is that he’s a conservative outsider and his opponent is a career politician.

New Greitens Ad

The new Eric Greitens ad says that Chris Koster got caught “red-handed” in a corruption case.  See it here. Also it calls him a career politician…

And

Dems ask SEC to look into Greitens’ mysterious $2M donor to SEALs for Truth – in case it violates federal laws.  See Jason Hancock’s article about it here.

$2 Million Checks

In the large contributions today there’s $2M from the Republican Governors Association to Eric Greitens.  This is on top of the $4M that came in last week.  While polling continues to show a Chris Koster lead, they appear to believe a late come from behind win is possible for Greitens.

And RAI Services – the corporate name for tobacco company RJ Reynolds – spent $2.6M on the tobacco tax increase.

And

David Humphreys sent another $500K to his Accountability Committee.

Follow the Money: House Republican Campaign Committee

The most reliable way to follow the House races is to watch where the money is flowing.  The House Republican Campaign Committee provides the most reliable indicator of vulnerable incumbents, battleground open seats, and spots where the GOP thinks they might be able to stretch their super majority even farther.

House 14 – Rep. Kevin Corlew turned aside a primary challenger backed by David Humphreys, and now faces Democrat Martin Rucker II.  Rucker has a name.  He was a star football player and his father was a state representative.  He’s personable – and this is a Democratic district.  However the reason it’s a Democratic district in Republican hands is because of Corlew.  He’s a strong campaigner, and he’s represented the district well.  HRCC investment: $51,350.

House 17 – Mary Hill is the Republican who knocked off Nick King in the primary (again thanks to help from Humphreys).  Now she’s defending the seat against Democrat Mark Ellebracht.  Ellebracht gave King a good run last time.  HRCC investment: $55,958.

The Columbia area has a pair of hot state rep races.  I imagine Donald Trump doesn’t play well here, and I wonder if that is making these more likely to turn Democratic this cycle.

House 44 – This is Rep. Caleb Rowden’s seat; he’s running for Senate.  Republican Cheri Toalson Reisch might be too Republican for this district.  Her Democratic opponent is Tom Pauley. HRCC investment: $91,183.

House 47 – Rep. Chuck Basye has meandered into a few controversies in his time.  And Dems are talking up their candidate Susan McClintic.   HRCC investment: $72,330.

In House 65 (St. Charles) newcomer Tom Hannegan (Anne Zerr’s old seat) prevailed in a spirited primary and now faces former Rep. Kenny Biermann who is a door-knocking fiend.  This is Anne Zerr’s seat.  It’s Republican, but more moderate Republican. HRCC investment: $51,353.

St. Louis County is slowing turning blue, but Republicans aren’t giving it up without a fight.  The marquee race in this county is House 94 where every two years Cloria Brown and Vicki Englund tangle.  So far, the Dems have come out on top during presidential years and the Republcians have won off-cycle elections. Will the pattern continue? HRCC investment: $41,004.

House 90 – Rep. Deb Lavender ran four times before winning, and now Republicans are trying to knock her off with a credible candidate, Mark Milton.  However I think this district has turned too blue for them to win it back. HRCC investment: $10,250.

House 70 – Democratic Rep. Bill Otto vacated to run for Congress.  This is Dem leaning district, and the Democratic candidate Byron DeLear is working very hard.  Mark Matthiesen is running for the Republicans.  HRCC investment: $20,500.

In Jefferson County there are only two races that are getting the money and attention of HRCC.  In some cases incumbents in this previous hotbed area just got a pass this cycle.  Presidential cycle turnout is usually more favorable to Dems, but with the Donald on the ballot who knows how it will influence JeffCo.

House 112 – Rep. Rob Vescovo is in a re-match with Robert Butler.  Butler is vehemently pro-labor and Vescovo voted for right to work.  Pre-election maneuvers had Butler suing to remove Vescovo because of unpaid business taxes.  The move failed, but it did raise the issue. HRCC investment: $22,650.

House 113 – Rep. Dan Shaul is running for re-election.  He faces a strong challenge from Karen Settlemoir-Berg.  She has more than matched Shaul in fundraising.  HRCC investment: $22,650.

In House 117 Republican Mike Henderson is running against Democrat Travis Barnes.  This is Linda Black’s seat.  She of course was a Democrat who changed parties to become a Republican.  The area is considered to be Democratic, but might be changing too.  Henderson looks like a good fit for the district.  HRCC investment $17,953.

In the bootheel which used to be all Democratic and now has turned entirely red, Democrats are making a play to run back time.  In House 149 Rep. Don Rone is being challenged by Brantley Atchley (HRCC investment $15,420), and in House 150 Rep. Andrew McDaniel is being challenged by Lena Samford (HRCC investment: $27,394).

In Springfield, HRCC has played heavily in House 135.  (I’ve been surprised not to see money flowing into House 132).  House 135 is Lincoln Hough’s seat.  He’s vacating to run for commissioner.  Hough barely won his initial election, and Dems think they can grab it back.  Republican Steve Helms faces Democrat Randy Alberhasky, an attorney who has shown strong fundraising.  HRCC investment: $106,280.

Otto Says He’s in “Dead Heat” With Wagner

I don’t know what polls Rep. Bill Otto is talking about in his long-shot challenge to Congresswoman Ann Wagner.

From his latest email fundraising blast… “As you know, the polls show us in a dead heat with longtime incumbent politician Congresswoman Ann Wagner. Bill is running a fantastic race and people are noticing. The St. Louis Post Dispatch is even saying they are afraid to wade into this race with an endorsement for either candidate because they don't know which way this one is going to go. Incredible, but true!”

Senior Program Bid

Missouri seeks new contractor to run its Senior Community Service Employment Program (SCSEP).

“SCSEP is a program that serves unemployed individuals age 55 and over whose income does not exceed 125% of the most recently published poverty guidelines and who have poor employment prospects, by providing part-time job training and placement, via use of host agencies.  Eligible participants are placed at host agencies, such as schools, libraries, community centers, senior/nutrition centers, and social service agencies.  This provides the host agency with a dedicated worker and provides the participant with on-the-job experience and an opportunity to re-enter the work force.  Participants are reimbursed the higher of the federal, state, local, or prevailing minimum hourly wage for an average of 20 hours of work per week….”

Bits

Missourians for Fair Taxation – supporting Amendment 4 to prohibit an expansion of the sales tax – has started a YouTube Channel with all their TV ads.  See it here.

AFSCME reports a non-committee expenditure on behalf of Chris Koster.  See it here.

Wall Street Journal reports: Tesla Motors posted its second quarterly profit as a public company and its best sales period on record, helped by the new Model X sport-utility vehicle. The Palo Alto, Calif., electric-car maker's shares rose in after-hours trading after it posted a profit of $21.9 million, or 14 cents a share, compared with a loss of $229.9 million, or $1.78 a share, a year earlier… Revenue shot up to $2.3 billion…

Congressman Billy Long skips debate.  See it here.

Committee Changes

Anne Zerr changed her committee to seek statewide office in 2020.  See it here.

John Brunner changed his committee to debt service.  See it here.

Ella Jones changed her committee to show that she’s running for mayor of Ferguson.  See it here.

Lee’s Summit Citizens for Responsible Government was formed. See the paperwork here. Tony’s KC writes that its purpose is to recall their councilman Chris Moreno.  See it here.

Bryan Harr formed a committee to run for alderman of the City of Wentzville as a Republican.  See it here.

Carlene May is the new treasurer of the Phelps County Republican Central Committee. See it here.

Help Wanted

Teach For America seeks Executive Director, St. Louis. “We are seeking an Executive Director to be the cultural and visionary leader in St. Louis, aimed at maximizing Teach For America’s local impact by holding rigorous accountability for reaching Teach For America’s breakthrough results at the local level within the St. Louis context. We aim to build a movement of corps members and alumni who are creating positive life change for thousands of students growing up in poverty. In this role, you will inspire and motivate your St. Louis regional team while creating a culture of excellence, urgency, and core value(s) alignment – balancing our short-term work and long-term efforts in the community.

To realize the vision of growing and deepening our impact, you will maximize our funding base of approximately three million dollars annually, will set the vision and direction for a corps of more than 80, an alumni base of over 500, and a staff of approximately 17 and will be a critical voice in the education reform movement taking place across the city…” See it here.

St. Louis Public Radio seeks Education Reporter.  “It's an especially great place for education reporters who can explain arcane policy problems in engaging ways, who love to connect the issues to the people impacted the most, and who can distinguish between public policy lip service and authentic attempts to change things…”   See it here.

Lobbyists Registrations

David Sweeney added Missouri Clean Energy District / Renovate America.

$5K+ Contributions

Vote Yes on 3 for Kids - $2,633,156 from RAI Services Company.

Greitens for Missouri - $2,000,000 form Republican Governors Association Missouri.

Committee for Accountable Government in Missouri - $500,000 from David Humphreys.

MO Petroleum Marketers + Convenience Store Assoc PAC - $160,000 from Xcaliber International LTD LLC.

Right to Vote - $70,000 from AFL-CIO.

Spire Political Action Committee - $50,000 form Spire Inc.

Operating Engineers Local 101 Political Fund - $50,000 from Engineers Political Education Committee.

Teresa Hensley for Missouri –  $35,000 from Democratic Attorneys General Association Missouri.

Teresa Hensley for Missouri –$34,649 from Missouri Democratic State Committee.

House Republican Campaign Committee Inc - $25,000 from Cloria Brown.

Teresa Hensley for Missouri – $25,000 from SEIU Missouri State Council PAC.

Missouri Democratic State Committee - $24,515 from Citizens for Stephen Webber.

Missourians for John Brunner - $22,000 from John G Brunner.

Associated Industries of MO PAC - $20,000 from Associated Industries of Missouri.

Koster for Missouri - $20,000 from Sheet Metal Workers International Association Local Union 36.

Parson for Missouri - $20,000 from August Busch III.

Koster for Missouri - $15,000 from Bartimus Frickleton Robertson.

Scott Sifton for Missouri - $15,000 from Eastern Missouri Laborers' Educational & Benevolent Fund.

Missouri Democratic State Committee - $15,000 from Scott Sifton for Missouri.

Missouri Democratic State Committee - $14,850 from Lennon for Boone.

Scott Sifton for Missouri - $14,268 from Missouri State Democratic Committee.

Koster for Missouri - $10,000 from David Johnson.

Friends of Todd Richardson - $10,000 from Anheuser-Busch Cos Inc.

SEIU Missouri State Council PAC - $10,000 from SEIU MO/KS State Council.

Citizens for a Safer Jackson County - $10,000 from KC Chamber of Commerce.

Citizens for a Safer Jackson County - $10,000 from BlueCross BlueShield of Kansas City.

Rizzo for Missouri - $10,000 from Friends for Gina Walsh.

Missouri Democratic State Committee - $10,000 from Sanders for Jackson County.

The Committee to Protect MO Families PAC Fund - $7,845 from Preserve Missouri’s Middle Class.

Citizens Against More Taxes - $6,100 from Warrenton Oil Company.

Missouri Democratic State Committee - $5,235 from Mary Nichols for State Rep.

Teresa Hensley for Missouri – $5,100 from UAW Region 5 Midwest States PAC.

Birthdays

Happy birthdays to Sen. Kurt Schaefer, Rep. Jay Houghton (the big 5-0), DESE’s Stacey Jones Preis, and Andria Simckes.