Monday, July 2, 2012
Senate 33: Franz Poll
Thanks to the peerless Combest this morning comes the SEMO Times article on a leaked Ward Franz poll. Read it here.
The not-great 376 sample has Franz with a narrow lead over former Rep. Mike Cunningham, and Rep. Don Wells in third.
This fits the perception of the race. But Franz’ cash lead is expected to allow him to build on his lead over the next month. That makes him the favorite.
Poll
Franz – 20.5%
Cunningham – 16.8%
Wells – 11.7%
Undies – 51%
Randoms
Missouri Club for Growth PAC endorsed candidates – 2012 House Primary
House District-31 Sheila Solon
House District-64 Robert Cornejo
House District-94 Cloria Brown
House District-106 Chrissy Sommer
House District-107 Ron Hicks
House District-129 Sandy Crawford
House District-131 Sonya Murray Anderson
House District-142 Don Bordwell
House District-148 Holly Rehder
South St. Louis County Gossip
Word from Senate 1 is that there’s a lot more ground activity from Rep. Scott Sifton’s campaign than that of Sue Schoemehl. And it’s thought that Sen. Jim Lembke would actually prefer Sifton as a candidate over Schoemehl. That’s because inside the Lembke tent, his exceedingly tight race against Joan Barry is considered to have been a result of the gender split. Therefore, Lembke should prefer a male candidate over a female candidate.
Tax and Spend Treasurer?
At his fundraiser last week, I got a preview of the line of attack that Rep. Cole McNary plans to use against incumbent Treasurer Clint Zweifel: “(Zweifel) voted to raise taxes 16 times when he was a state representative… he was Obama’s campaign chair in St. Louis.”
Cheapest Campaign Tactic Not Most Effective
In Senate 5, St. Louisians are receiving robo-calls from former fire chief Sherman George on behalf of incumbent Sen. Robin Wright Jones. George was fired by Mayor Francis Slay, who has endorsed Rep. Jamilah Nasheed.
54 Candles
“Team Carnahan invites you to a Local Foods and Brews 54th Birthday Celebration for Russ Carnahan, Sunday, July 8th, 2012, Stupp Center at Tower Grove Park, $54 or MORE”
KC’s Google’s Experiment mentioned in this morning’s Politico Playbook:
ERIC SCHMIDT, Google's executive chairman, interviewed onstage by Jeffrey Goldberg, on accelerating technological change: "We forget how poor-quality the mobile phones were 10 years ago, or even five years ago. We forget how bad the initial iPod was, versus what it is today. We forget how slow the PCs and Macs were ... [T]his improvement in performance ... means a continuing explosion in connectivity, bandwidth... Google is busy wiring up Kansas City [Mo. and Kan.] as a test with gigabit fiber. On a gigabit fiber, you can take every bit of content that you can consume and put it on in perfect HD quality. All the distinctions between television and radios and DVDs and so forth all go away. It's just bits coming in on the pipe. That's all technically possible now."
How much RGA $$$ will end up in MO? From this morning’s Politico Score:
The RGA will announce today that they raised $16.7 million in the second quarter of 2012, bringing their total for the first six months of the year to $29 million. For comparison, the RGA raised $8 million in the second quarter of 2008 and $15.1 million in the first half of 2008. Fundraising totals are also more than the $28.2 million they had raised at the halfway point of 2010, despite far fewer races than the 37 that year. They've now taken $73 million in for the cycle.
JMO - $3K On-line
This morning’s email blast in Senate 5 from Rep. Jeanette Mott Oxford: “Good morning, friends! As you can imagine, I haven’t been getting much sleep lately. The campaign is exciting and rigorous, but I’m loving (almost) every moment of it! Yesterday was especially wonderful… I woke up to an e-mail from ActBlue saying that “You’re Making a Difference!” and that we collectively raised over $3,000!”
Cash Dash
The long list of contributions at the end of today’s report is typical of the furious final days of a quarter. There may be some straggling reports today but this is the bulk. Here’s a rundown on what the various statewide offices and state senate races showed in $5K+ contributions this quarter.
Statewides
Governor
Jay Nixon – 53 checks worth $1,404,800.
Dave Spence – 12 checks worth $240,000.
Lieutenant Governor
Peter Kinder – 3 checks worth $30,000.
Brad Lager – 5 checks worth $667,500.
Susan Montee – 4 checks worth $50,000.
Beck Plattner – 1 check worth $10,000.
The other 6 candidates – 0 checks.
Secretary of State
Scott Rupp – 2 checks worth $20,000.
Shane Schoeller – 4 checks worth $210,000.
Bill Stouffer – 6 checks worth $66,809.
Jason Kander – 5 checks worth $43,000.
Attorney General
Chris Koster – 11 checks worth $422,436.
Ed Martin – 6 checks worth $301,000.
Treasurer
Clint Zweifel – 3 checks worth $22,000.
Cole McNary – 0 checks.
Senates
Senate 1
Sue Schoemehl - $35,500 (in-kind).
Scott Sifton – 2 checks worth $40,000.
Jim Lembke – 1 check worth $10,000.
Senate 3
Terry Varner – 0 checks.
Gary Romine – 2 checks worth 10,505.
Joe Fallert – 0 checks.
Senate 5
No checks.
Senate 7
Jason Holsman – 1 check worth $5,001.
Crystal Williams – 1 check worth $8,105.
Senate 13
No checks.
Senate 19
Kurt Schaefer – 2 checks worth $10,010.
Mary Still – 0 checks.
Senate 21
David Pearce – 4 checks worth $23,510.
Mike McGhee – 1 check worth $40,000.
Senate 25
Doug Libla – 2 checks worth $20,000.
Terry Swinger – 1 check worth $10,000.
Senate 27
Wayne Wallingford – 0 checks.
Ellen Brandom – 2 checks worth $65,000.
Senate 31
Scott Largent – 2 checks worth $17,500.
Ed Emery – 3 checks worth - $140,000.
Senate 33
Ward Franz – 2 checks worth $30,000.
Mike Cunningham – 5 checks worth $138,000.
Don Wells – 0 checks.
Lobbyists Registrations
From the Pelopidas website:
Rodney Boyd, Brian Grace and Kelvin Simmons added Auctor Corporation.
Andy Blunt and Jay Reichard deleted Support Popular Vote.
$5K+ Contributions
Citizens for Ed Emery - $40,000 from Missouri Club for Growth
Lembke for Senate - $10,000 from Missouri Club for Growth
McGhee for Senate - $40,000 from Missouri Club for Growth.
Sater for Senate - $10,000 from Missouri Club for Growth Board PAC.
Doug Libla for Senate - $10,000 from Missouri Club for Growth PAC.
Friends of Ellen Brandom - $40,000 from Missouri Club for Growth.
Friends of Ward Franz - $10,000 from Missouri Club for Growth.
Friends of Ward Franz - $20,000 from Ward Franz.
Citizens for Largent - $7,500 from Parson for State Senate
Parson for State Senate - $25,000 from Missouri Soybean Association.
Parson for State Senate - $50,000 from Lucas Cattle Company.
Rupp for Missouri - $10,000 from Missouri Professionals Mutual.
Rupp for Missouri - $10,000 from Cape Radiology Group.
Friends of Peter Kinder - $10,000 from Cape Radiology Group.
Friends of Peter Kinder - $10,000 from William Kapp,
Citizens for Brad Lager - $7,500 from Trailiner Corp.
Friends of Tom Schweich - $50,000 from Sam Fox.
Missourians for Ed Martin - $10,000 from Will Landers.
Democratic Attorneys General Association – Missouri - $25,000 from Coca-Cola North America.
Democratic Attorneys General Association – Missouri - $25,000 from E.I. Dupont De Nemours & Company
Democratic Attorneys General Association – Missouri - $25,000 from Facebook.
Democratic Attorneys General Association – Missouri - $15,000 from LeadsOnline.
Democratic Attorneys General Association – Missouri - $25,000 from Recording Industry Association of America Inc.
Democratic Attorneys General Association – Missouri - $50,000 from Visa U.S.A. Inc.
Democratic Attorneys General Association – Missouri - $25,000 from Zeneca Services.
Democratic Attorneys General Association – Missouri - $50,000 from Pfizer.
Democratic Attorneys General Association – Missouri - $25,000 from Anheuser Busch.
Democratic Attorneys General Association – Missouri - $25,000 from Altria Client Services Inc.
Missourians for Koster - $300,000 from Democratic Attorneys General Association.
Missourians for Koster - $20,000 from MO Drive Fund.
Missourians for Koster - $25,000 from Express Scripts Inc.
Missourians for Koster - $25,000 from Strong Garner Bauer P.C.
Missourians for Koster - $6,000 from Eastern Missouri Laborers’ Educational and Benevolent Fund.
Missourians for Koster - $6,000 from Western Missouri and Kansas Laborers’ District Council PAC.
Clint Zweifel for Missouri - $6,000 from Western Missouri and Kansas Laborers District Council PAC.
Clint Zweifel for Missouri - $6,000 from Eastern Missouri Laborers Educational & Benevolent Fund.
Montee for Missouri - $12,500 from Western Missouri and Kansas Laborers District Council PAC.
Montee for Missouri - $12,500 from Eastern Missouri Laborers Educational & Benevolent Fund.
Kander for Missouri - $6,500 from Western Missouri and Kansas Laborers District Council PAC.
Kander for Missouri - $6,500 from Eastern Missouri Laborers Educational & Benevolent Fund.
Jay Nixon for Missouri - $10,000 from Eastern Missouri Laborers Educational & Benevolent Fund.
Jay Nixon for Missouri - $10,000 from Western Missouri and Kansas Laborers District Council PAC.
Jay Nixon for Missouri - $50,000 from UA Political Education Committee.
Jay Nixon for Missouri - $7,500 from International Union of Painters and Allied Trades Political Action Together Committee
Jay Nixon for Missouri - $25,000 from NEA Fund for Children and Public Education.
Jay Nixon for Missouri - $10,000 from Triad Bank.
Jay Nixon for Missouri - $20,000 CHIPP Political Account.
Jay Nixon for Missouri - $15,000 from Smithfield Foods Inc.
Jay Nixon for Missouri – $10,000 from AgXplore International LLC.
Jay Nixon for Missouri – $10,000 from MACO Development Company LLC.
Jay Nixon for Missouri - $10,000 from Barry Aycock.
Jay Nixon for Missouri - $10,000 from Bruce Grench
Jay Nixon for Missouri – $7,500 from International Union of Painters and Allied Trades Political Action Together Committee
Jay Nixon for Missouri - $500,000 from Democratic Governors Association – Missouri.
Jay Nixon for Missouri - $25,000 from Simmons, Browder, Gianaris, Angelides & Barnerd, LLC
Slay for Mayor - $10,000 from Centene Management Company.
Slay for Mayor - $10,000 from McCormack Baron Salazar Inc.
Slay for Mayor - $10,000 from Steven Stogel.
Slay for Mayor - $12,500 from Ironworkers Political Education Fund.
Scott Sifton for Senate - $10,000 from Simmons Browder Gianaris Angelides & Barnerd LLC
Committee to Elect Jake Hummel - $15,000 from Simmons Browder Gianaris Angelides & Barnerd LLC
Lewis & Clark Regional Leadership Forum - $16,000 from Drury Development Corporation.
Missouri Senate Campaign Committee - $10,000 from Citizens for Jay Wasson.
Missouri Senate Campaign Committee - $10,000 from Dealers Interested In Government.
House Republican Campaign Committee Inc. – $10,000 from Drury Development Corporation.
House Republican Campaign Committee Inc. – $6,000 from The Good Folks For Cookson Campaign.
House Republican Campaign Committee Inc. – $10,000 from Friends of Todd Richardson.
Citizens for Morris - $8,000 Family Pharmacy Inc.
Citizens for Responsible Spending - $10,100 from Deffenbaugh Industries Inc.
Citizens for Responsible Spending - $6,985 from Deffenbaugh Industries Inc.
Citizens for Judge Hayes - $35,558 from Scott Hayes.
Cash Commentary
MO Club for Growth dispensed its senate primary checks. It generally looks like their endorsed candidates who are considered favorites got $10K, and those who are underdogs or in tough races got $40K.
Team Koster picked up a $300K check from DAGA (The national Dem AG Association); and Nixon received a $500K check from DGA (Dem Govs Association).
I expected a big final check to Lager from Stan Herzog. Didn’t happen.
Laborers sent their checks to their statewide candidates with LG candidate Susan Montee pulling down bigger checks than incumbent Gov. Jay Nixon.
In Senate 33, Rep. Ward Franz anted up $20K into his own campaign.
Birthdays
Happy birthday to Bruce Wylie.