MOScout Weekender: Poll on KC Mayor's Race - Who Won the Week - Hallway Worries about Rowden 2020 and more...

Driving the Day

Missouri Republican Party meets today.  Kay Hoflander will be formally voted in as the new party chair.

Berri Passes

Brett Berri passed away this week.  From his bio:  Brett W. Berri earned a Bachelor of Arts degree in Journalism from George Washington University in 1985. A native of the St. Louis area, Berri returned for law school and graduated from Washington University School of Law in 1988… Berri relocated to Jefferson City to serve as a law clerk to the Honorable Andrew Jackson Higgins of the Missouri Supreme Court. After a year with the Court, he went on to work at the Office of the Secretary of State for more than ten years… In 1998, Berri took a year’s sabbatical from the office during which he earned a Masters’ Degree in Public Administration from Harvard University’s Kennedy School of Government. He finished his tenure with the office as legislative liaison. In 2001, Berri went to work as an Assistant Attorney General under former Attorney General Jay Nixon, serving as legislative liaison, and also working on special litigation, including a variety of administrative and appellate work.  In January 2009, Berri became legislative liaison for the Office of Administration under the new administration of Governor Nixon. He served in that capacity until Governor Nixon appointed him to a six year term at the Administrative Hearing Commission in July of 2015.

Look for funeral arrangement here.

MOScout Poll: KC Mayor’s Race

See the full results here.

Survey conducted January 23 through January 24, 2019. 555 likely 2019 Municipal Election voters participated in the survey.  Margin of Error is +/-4.2%.   

Q: Do you approve or disapprove of Sly James’ job performance as Mayor of Kansas City?

Approve: 60%

Disapprove: 23%

Not sure: 17%

Q: Do you approve or disapprove of the Kansas City City Council’s job performance?

Approve: 32%

Disapprove: 41%

Not sure: 27%

Q: Shall the City of Kansas City impose a sales tax authorized by Section 67.1305 of the Revised Statutes of Missouri for a period of 10 years at a rate of 3/8% to be used for economic development purposes through funding Pre-K instruction for four and five years olds the year before they enter kindergarten, funding improvements to early childhood centers, and investing in the City’s early childhood workforce?

Yes: 41%

No: 46%

Undecided: 13%

Q: Possible candidates in the 2019 election for Mayor of Kansas City are Alissia Canady, Phil Glynn, Jolie Justus, Quinton Lucas, Steve Miller, Jermaine Reed, Scott Taylor, Scott Wagner, Clay Chastain, Roi Chinn, and Henry Klein. If the election were held today, for whom would you vote?

Alissia Canady: 10%

Phil Glynn: 5%

Jolie Justus: 15%

Quinton Lucas: 5%

Steve Miller: 4%

Jermaine Reed: 8%

Scott Taylor: 7%

Scott Wagner: 6%

Someone else: 7%

Undecided: 34%

MOScout’s Hallway Index: Senate Seat to Flip?

I asked the hallway walkers which state senate district they thought was most vulnerable to flipping parties in 2020. 27 replies…

RESULTS

1. Senate 1 Sifton (termed)… 29.6%

2. Senate 3 Romine (termed)… 0%

3. Senate 15 Koenig… 25.9%

4. Senate 17 Arthur… 14.8%

5. Senate 19 Rowden… 29.6%

Sample of Comments

Senate 1: Although SD1 is slightly D, Republicans are better at running campaigns in general and will have access to far more resources. If Marsha Haefner jumps in she will be very tough to beat.

Senate 17:  It all depends on candidate recruitment, but in a year where Trump is on the ballot and RTW is in the rear-view mirror I would expect this seat to be really competitive. I think it only helps Rs take it back if the Dems nominate a super liberal. With the tariffs this heavy union district will still be Trump friendly. And before someone responds “Arthur won by 20 points” that was a very unique special election when D enthusiasm was through the roof and Rs had no reason to show up with Grietens taking away any enthusiasm that had been left.

Senate 19:  If our current political trends continue, the 19th district could again be vulnerable. And Rowden, now being a part of leadership can get tagged with nearly any issue the democrats want to choose.  Then again being vulnerable and the Democrats actually putting together a winning plan are two VERY different stories.

[Rowden] is a great senator but if the Trump backlash is bad enough in Columbia he is in trouble. However, Dems could easy screw it up by recruiting poorly.

Change Election with Dems riding a wave of sorts (won’t be as big as in other areas, but Dems will overperform in 2020), plus being in leadership puts folks in tough spots sometimes. Dems will pour everything they have at Rowden and get a trophy kill.

Who Won the Week?

Mike Parson – The governor’s fundraising team has put their foot on the pedal.  His candidate committee has about $1 million cash on-hand, while the pro-Parson PAC is probably nearing $2 million. 

Mary Elizabeth Coleman – Coleman was the first rep to present a bill in House General Laws Committee.  And though she faced a tough line of questioning from opposing party, she handled it well and the bill was voted out unanimously.

Robert Ross – Looks to be the early favorite in Senate 33.  Possibly signing up Axiom as his consultant, while establishing a third-party PAC, Ross is making all the right moves.

Peter Merideth – Cuts through the crap in the House Budget committee by explaining that “don’t worry, the money will be there in April” means Missourians will be hit with a $500 million unexpected tax wallop in April.

David Wood – Among the meek new faces in the House Budget Committee, Wood was almost alone in expressing the frustration that DOR didn’t do their job.  They didn’t dig in enough to correctly understand how the tax law changes would impact Missourians. 

Find a downloadable version here.

Lobbyist Registrations

Jay Hahn added Missouri Coin Operators Association.

Gary Burton, Chris Liese, James Foley, and Andrew Foley added Missouri Coin Operators Association on behalf of Hahn O'Daniel LLC

Steven Tilley and Thomas Robbins added MO Hemp Trade Association.

Brett Ewer added CrossFit Inc.

Jeremy LaFaver added Empower Missouri.

Nikolas Dylan Shores added Missouri Secretary of State’s Office.

Ryan Johnson added United for Missouri.

Tracy Kelly Kimberlin deleted Tracy K. Kimberlin.

Michael Anthony Evans, James Faul, and Ronald Gladney deleted Missouri State Building and Construction Trades Council and Certain of its Affiliated Locals.

$5K+ Contributions

Civic Progress Action Committee - $13,000 from Centene Management Company LLC.

Civic Progress Action Committee - $13,000 from Enterprise Holdings Inc. PAC.

Uniting Missouri PAC - $7,500 from Gold Rush Amusements Inc.