MOScout Daily Update: Wagner Out of Senate Race - Schmitt's Trumpy Web Ad - Election Day - CD-7 Rundown - Harris for US Atty? and more...
Wagner Rejects Senate Bid
Congresswoman Ann Wagner writes in a MOTimes op/ed (see it here) that she’s running for re-election. I am running for re-election to Congress because Missourians need a principled fighter who will hold the Biden administration accountable and stand up for what we believe and hold dear to our hearts.
What It Means
· It likely leaves Congresswoman Vicky Hartzler as the only top-tier female candidate in the race. That’s not a huge demographic advantage in a Republican primary like it is in a Democratic primary. But it is still helpful.
· It reinforces that one of the key objectives of the redistricting process for Republicans will be shoring up CD-2, making it more Republican. That, in turn, lessens the probability of St. Charles being entirely in one congressional district.
· It hurts Dems’ dream of flipping CD-2. Not only because the district will get redder in redistricting, but because their hope of a crazy right-wing candidate emerging from a crowded GOP primary has just vanished.
Driving the Day: Election Day
It’s Election Day in many municipalities, but the ballots will be thin. And turnout will likely be sparse.
Among the issues drawing attention…
· St. Louis Community College tax increase.
· Webster Groves’ controversial change to its zoning code.
· In Jefferson City, Proposition 1 is the renewal of the city’s capital improvement sales tax.
Where We Are on CD-7
With a bus tour fueling up for next week, Congressman Billy Long is expected to be announcing his bid for US Senate. Here’s a quick look at where we are for who might run for his congressional seat.
The best guess right now is a five-way, including three state senators…
· Sen. Eric Burlison – He’s a natural fit for the district with his conservative voting record. He’s not as exciting as Long, but who is?
· Sen. Mike Moon – one rumor is that he was “in DC last week for meetings.” It’s hard to imagine that, but if true speaks to the fact his candidacy should be taken seriously.
· Sen. Lincoln Hough – One of the most prolific fundraisers in the area. Folks wonder if he’s too moderate to have a legitimate shot in a Republican primary. It probably depends on how crowded the field gets.
· Dr. Sam Alexandra - One source says that “he has $300K in commitments.” If true, that’s a good start. It’s always helpful to not have a voting record.
· Joelle Cannon / Elijah Haahr – Both have been mentioned, but power couples don’t against each other. That’s how someone ends up on the couch…
OUT – I’ve mentioned these folks before, but have been told they’re not interested in running: Jack Goodman, John Russell, and Cody Smith.
Harris US Atty Front-Runner?
MOScouter tips… “Front runner for the US Attorney Eastern District MO position Reggie Harris has the blessing of Congresswoman Cori Bush and is now doing work for Circuit Attorney Kimberly Gardner until the appointment if approved by the President.”
Schmitt Web Ad
The pro-Eric Schmitt PAC, Save Missouri Values, released a web ad, that Politico says is backed by a modest five-figure buy.
See the video here. It’s shows Schmitt supporting Trump, filing the lawsuit try to change the presidential election results, suing the nation of China, etc.
· It’s tough sell to make Schmitt look Trumpy, but they’re going to go for it.
COVID Hospitalizations Hit 2,000
According to the state database, over 2,000 Missourians are now hospitalized with COVID. That included over 600 in intensive care units, and 295 on ventilators.
· This compares to a pandemic peak of about 2,850 in the hospital and 680 in ICUs.
August Budget Numbers
With the first month of the new fiscal year behind us, it worth reprinting this note that’s on the budget numbers. This will be another funky year of tracking revenue…
Due to the COVID pandemic, the 2020 income tax filing deadlines in April and June were moved to July 15, 2020. As a result, approximately $783,800,000 in income tax receipts were shifted from FY20 in to FY21. Therefore, the comparison of FY21 to FY22 will be negatively impacted throughout FY22.
· Missouri state revenues look fine despite ugly looking comparisons.
Gas Tax Safe From Referendum
MissouriNet reports that “A group called Americans For Prosperity-Missouri is no longer pursuing its attempt to overturn a Missouri gas tax hike. Jeremy Cady, with the libertarian-conservative leaning group, confirmed the decision.”
· It underscores what a herculean task organized labor undertook to reverse the right to work legislation years ago. It’s not easy to marshal the resources for a referendum. And we never did see an organizing campaign committee established to take on the gas tax.
Rosenbaum Interviews Parson
The mighty Jason Rosenbaum interviewed Governor Mike Parson in a wide-ranging interview. Listen to it here.
· Parson says he’s unconvinced that mask mandates work to slow the spread of COVID.
· He rejects the idea of a special session to thwart Medicaid Expansion.
· He wonders if the legislature should take up recreational marijuana language rather than leave the process up to a potential initiative petition.
· And he names Kit Bond as one of the greatest Missouri statesmen.
MHA Names Doolittle Next CEO
Press release: “The Missouri Hospital Association Board of Trustees has selected Jon D. Doolittle as its next President and CEO, after an extensive national search. Doolittle comes to the association after 11 years at Mosaic Medical Center – Albany, in northwest Missouri. He succeeds Herb B. Kuhn, who will begin his retirement after leading the association as MHA’s President and CEO since September 2009. Doolittle will join MHA in late October…”
· MHA is a big force in the capitol representing the state’s hospitals – many times one of the largest employers in their area.
· Additionally, it ends up in the middle of some of the biggest issues (Medicaid expansion, COVID response).
· Outgoing CEO Herb Kuhn’s compensation, according to the organization’s 990, was over $1.2 million in 2019.
New Committees
Francis Howell Families was formed. It’s a PAC. Its treasurer is Vivian Gontarz.
$5K+ Contributions
MO Insurance Coalition PAC - $8,250 from CFM Insurance, Inc.
American Dream PAC (pro-Kehoe) - $10,000 from MACO Development Company L.L.C.
Invest in St. Louis Community College - $25,000 from Edward Jones.
Lobbyists Registrations
James Harris added Carvana.
Birthdays
Happy birthdays to Dan Engemann, Bev Randles, and Larry Wilson.