MOScout Daily Update: Early Voting Hits 30%+ in Some Battleground Districts - Vitae Foundation Buys $250K Anti-A3 Ads - Late Expenditures and more…
Quick Friday update…
Early Voting Hits 30%+ in Battleground STL Districts
According to the St. Louis County Board of Elections’ unofficial turnout dashboard, early voting has already delivered a significant number of voters to the ballot box in several of the battleground districts. Here’s the percent of registered voters who have already cast their ballots in these hot races…
Senate 15 (Gregory/Pereles) – 32.19%
House 94 (Murphy) – 26.37%
House 96 (Christ) – 30.57%
House 98 (Lavender open) – 29.16%
House 100 (Oehlerking) – 27.5%
House 101 (Kethley) – 34.37%
What It Means
Of course, there’s still two-thirds of voters to try to get to the polls on Election Day. But if you assume turnout will hit 70%, you’re nearing the point where half of those folks have already voted! That means late messaging and “closing arguments” are much less impactful.
And
While St. Louis County is the place where the actual numbers are available. This phenomenon appears to be happening across the state…
· News Tribune: Early voter turnout ‘double’ what election officials expected
· MO Indy: In Greene County… “I anticipate by the end of the no excuse absentee voting period that we will be somewhere between 20 and 25% turnout,” Schoeller said.
Vitae Adds $290K to Anti-A3 Effort
A couple of noteworthy contributions in the non-committee expenditure reports…
· The Vitae Foundation added $290,000 (including a $250,000 media buy) to anti-A3 effort. See the filing here.
· And the Farm Bureau is opposing A3, as well. It was among their positions advertised in their Show Me Magazine. See the filing here.
· Planned Parenthood Great Rivers Action spent $5,250 in late digital ads to help Joe Pereles in Senate 15. See the filing here.
More on MSCC Giving
Yesterday when I listed Republican senators whose PACs had given to the Republican campaign committee, I drew the list from the Missouri Ethics Commission’s large contributions. I heard from a couple of folks who noted some contributions or less hadn’t made that list…
Kurtis Gregory (Wonderdog PAC) - $10,000
Friends of Rick Bratton and True Patriot PAC - $10,000
Nick Schroer (NOVA PAC, Leadership for America) - $10,000
Mike Moon for Missouri - $5,000
Mike Henderson (Leadbelt PAC) - $5,000
Brad Hudson (Brad PAC) - $5,000
Jamie Burger (Bootheel PAC) - $5,000
Friends of Jill Carter - $5,000
What It Means
The Republican Senate Caucus is showing good buy-in across their sometime fractured composition. It signals a positive note for the upcoming session that they won’t be as divided as they have been. We’ll see…
24 Hour Expenditure Reports
House Republican Campaign Committee
House 12 (Pick-up attempt – Jamie Johnson) - $235
House 16 (Defense – Chris Brown) - $239
House 17 (Defense – Bill Allen) - $598
House 20 (Defense – McMullen open) - $290
House 34 (Pick-up attempt – Kemp Strickler) - $1,117
House 96 (Defense – Brad Christ) - $684
House 98 (Pick-up attempt – Lavender open) - $253
House 136 (Pick-up attempt – Stephanie Hein) - $283
House Democratic Campaign Committee
Governor – Crystal Quade - $629
LG – Richard Brown - $629
SOS – Barbara Phifer - $629
Treasurer – Mark Osmack - $629
AG – Elad Gross - $629
House 12 (Defense – Jamie Johnson) - $629
House 16 (Pick-up attempt – Chris Brown) - $629
House 17 (Pick-up attempt – Bill Allen) - $629
House 21 (Defense – Sauls open) - $629.
House 29 (Defense – Aaron Crossley) - $629
House 30 (Pick-up attempt – JP) - $629
House 34 (Defense – Kemp Strickler) - $629
House 47 (Defense – Adrian Plank) - $629
House 92 (Defense - Michael Burton) - $5,000
House 94 (Pick-up attempt –Jim Murphy) - $629
House 96 (Pick-up attempt – Brad Christ) - $629
House 98 (Defense – Lavender open) - $629
House 100 (Pick-up attempt – Philip Oehlerking) - $629
House 101 (Pick-up attempt – Ben Keathley) - $629
House 105 (Pick-up attempt – Schwadron open) - $629
House 133 (Pick-up attempt – Melanie Stinnett) - $629.
House 136 (Defense - Stephanie Hein) - $629.00
Lobbyist Registrations
Joseph Christian Miller deleted CHC Strategies.
$5K+ Contributions
Winning for Missouri Education - $333,333 from St. Louis Blues Hockey Club.
Winning for Missouri Education - $333,333 from Kansas City Royals Baseball Corporation.
Vote No on 3 - $25,000 from Dawn Lissner.
American Dream PAC (pro-Kehoe) - $10,000 from Thomas Strong.
Fearless PAC (pro-Pereles) - $50,000 from Majority Forward.
Protect our Kids PAC (pro-Schnelting) - $15,000 from Rex Sinquefield.
Missouri Alliance PAC (pro-JP) - $20,000 from August A Busch III.
Missouri Alliance PAC - $10,000 from Evergy Metro Inc.
Missouri Alliance PAC - $10,000 from Pfizer MO PAC (New York, NY).
Missouri Alliance PAC - $10,000 from Caesar’s Enterprise Services (Las Vegas, NV).
B PAC (pro-Williams) - $5,001 from Another Viceroy PAC.
House Republican Campaign Committee, Inc - $10,000 from Caesars Enterprise Services LLC (Las Vegas, NV).
House Republican Campaign Committee, Inc - $10,000 from Holly Jones for Missouri.
Missouri Senate Campaign Committee - $20,000 from Drury Development Corporation.
Missouri Senate Campaign Committee - $10,000 from The Wonderdog PAC.
Missouri Leadership Forum - $15,000 from Mark Stephens.
Committee to Support Jackson County Seniors - $20,000 from Kansas City Shepherds Center.