MOScout Daily Update: Budget Week - Club Ad for Scharf - Eigel GOP Convention Takeover - Ashcroft Pledges Tax Cuts and more…
Budget Week
While the legislature is clearly behind their usual schedule, folks think that they’ll be able to meet the constitutional deadline to pass the budget by Friday.
First, the FRA tax renewal, upon which all budget math relies, will be voted out of the Senate Fiscal Oversight Committee this afternoon, and then come to the floor for third reading. The House should approve this without drama.
Then, presumably Tuesday, Senate Appropriations Chair Lincoln Hough will roll out the budget on the Senate floor. He and House Budget Chair Cody Smith have reportedly been hammering out differences over the weekend.
This is where things could go off the rails. Hough will have to explain all the changes, and the Freedom Caucus will likely engage in sharp questioning, and possibly some delay tactics. The Freedomers has been telegraphing all session that they want a smaller budget.
But the question is what will they try to achieve? They could make speeches and vote NO, define their position for voters, and leave it at that. Or they could threaten to throw the legislature into a special session by delaying the budget unless some specific demand is met – like reversing state employee pay or some other cost-saving measure.
Hough will likely argue that any changes are impossible because of the fragile compromise reached with his House counterpart. But there’s no love lost between Hough and the Freedomers. Anything discomfort they can bring to his week will be a joyous byproduct for them.
Finally, last week’s filibuster is still fresh in the mind. The Regular Republicans in the Senate had 18 signatures ready to PQ the FRA tax. I bet they’d be ready to take the same extreme measure if passage of the budget was endangered.
We’ll see…
Club Ad: De Facto Trump Endorsement?
One reader grabbed the Club for Growth’s pro-Will Scharf ad off the television. The entire ad is focused on Scharf’s role as President Donald Trump’s attorney.
What It Means
The Scharf PAC is going all-in on the Trump angle to sell Scharf to Missouri Republican voters.
Eigel’s GOP Convention Takeover
The Republican State Convention was held last weekend, and the big news was Team Eigel’s organizing efforts stormed the event.
Sophia Shore, Sen. Bill Eigel’s campaign manager for his gubernatorial bid, was elected the chair of the convention, beating out Eddy Justice.
Team Eigel’s take…
· The Trump endorsed slate for national committeeman lost by more than 350 votes! In other words, anger among the Party base is even more deep seated than the happiness with Trump. Think about that.
· It matches with consistent independent polling saying Eigel is crushing Kehoe and Ashcroft among Republicans that know all three candidates (the most active Republicans). If nothing else, the convention shows that the Party base is exactly where Bill Eigel is at and he is winning hearts and minds all over Missouri—from the cities to the smallest farming communities.
An alternative take…
The whole situation leaves me scratching my head about why Eigel thought his takeover was a good use of his campaign resources. Most candidates spend campaign resources on things that might actually help them win. Then there’s Bill Eigel, who devoted a tremendous amount of time and energy organizing a coup at the state convention… and all he accomplished was angering Donald Trump by defeating the Trump-endorsed national delegate slate and the Trump-endorsed incumbent RNC Committeeman and Committeewoman.
Camellia Peterson gives a blow-by-blow on Twitter. She notes that the Eigel-ites voted down the draft platform, but then were unable to agree on a replacement platform. (I’m not sure if that means that there’s no platform now for Missouri Republicans, or if the old 2020 platform is still in effect.)
Peterson’s bottom-line: The faction that had the anti-Trump convention majority did a good job of organizing and got some of what they wanted. It’s debatable as to how much significance there is to getting the slate/committee. I would say their #1 priority was the platform - and they failed in that. No amount of excuses and placing blame changes that…
Osage Casino Submits Signatures
Press release: The Osage River Gaming & Convention (ORGC) committee turned in over 320,000 signatures in their effort to bring a new gaming casino to the Lake of the Ozarks. If approved by the voters, this multi-faceted tourism resort will include a new gaming casino, hotel, convention center, food/beverage options, spa, and other attractions that will provide a year-round economic boost to the region…
What It Means
Potentially a very full ballot for voters… In addition, to all the races for offices, there are now possibly six questions for the bottom of the ballot…
· Amendment 1, approved by the legislature, would exempt childcare businesses from property tax.
· Four initiative petitions submitted signatures for the secretary of state’s office to approve: minimum wage increase, sports betting, reproductive rights, and Osage casino.
· And finally, the Republican majority plans to add IP Reform, whether the House version or Senate version, to the list as well.
No Tax Ashcroft
Secretary of State Jay Ashcroft Signed the a “No Tax Pledge” with Grover Norquist. See the video here.
Ashcroft says he’s “committed to phasing out the income tax and repealing Mike Kehoe’s 12.5¢ gas tax increase.”
· I suspect we’ll be hearing a lot about the gas tax when Ashcroft attack ads start airing in July.
Spicer Preps for Senate Run
Most people will wait until after the November elections to start prepping their 2026 campaign. Derrick Spicer is not “most people.” He’s a member of the Jefferson City Council, and last week he formed a campaign committee, Spicer for Missouri, to run for Senate 6, the seat held by Sen. Mike Bernskoetter. Bernskoetter is term-limited.
· Spicer also formed a political action committee, Spicer for Senate PAC.
New Candidate Filings
In House 25, where Rep. Patty Lewis withdrew to run for state senate, two Democrats have filed to run.
· Pattie Mansur - director of health policy at Reach Healthcare Foundation.
· Ben Schloegel – who appears to be a fireman and triathlete (you might wonder which “the chicks” dig more).
$5K+ Contributions
Friends Of Zach Williams - $10,000 from Zach Williams.
Lobbyists Registrations
Olivia Wilson added Promontory 150 LLC c/o Platform Ventures LLC.
Birthdays
Happy birthdays to Rep. Danny Busick.