MOScout Weekender: Parson Cuts Budget - Double Hallway Index! - Poll on Senate 27 and more…
Parson Line-Item Vetoes
Governor Mike Parson signed next year’s budget. The fiscal year starts on Monday. Missouri Independent’s Rudi Keller gives a run-down here.
Parson vetoes a long list of earmarks. See that list here.
It’s a lot of relatively small items. I’m not trying to downplay the impact a couple million dollars can have, but within the context of a $50 billion budget, it’s a lot of small potatoes.
Nearly half of Parson’s total $1 billion in cuts came from pushing back spending on renovations to the capitol.
Among the reasons that Parson articulated for his spending cuts were to pay for SB727…
· The omnibus education bill expected to cost $400 million annually.
· Increased spending on the education “foundation formula,” anticipated to grow by $300 million annually.
Remington/MOScout Poll: Senate 27
Survey conducted June 24 through June 27, 2024. 311 likely 2024 Republican Primary voters
participated in the survey. Survey weighted to match expected turnout demographics for the 2024 Republican Primary Election. Margin of Error is +/-5.1% with a 95% level of confidence. Totals do not always equal 100% due to rounding. Survey conducted by Remington Research Group on behalf of The Missouri Scout. See full report here.
Q1: The candidates in the Republican Primary for Missouri State Senate are Jacob Turner, Jamie Burger, and Christina Dodson Dinkins. If the election were held today, for whom would you vote?
Jacob Turner: 8%
Jamie Burger: 24%
Christina Dodson Dinkins: 27%
Undecided: 41%
Q2: What is your opinion of Missouri Right to Life?
Favorable: 72%
Unfavorable: 12%
No opinion: 16%
Q3: Generally speaking, do you think it’s better to expand charter school options or keep resources focused on existing public schools?
Expand charters: 33%
Focus on existing: 44%
Not sure: 23%
Q4: Generally speaking, should your representatives fight for Republican values even if it means gridlock, or should they be willing to compromise with Democrats to get something done?
Fight: 58%
Compromise: 32%
Not sure: 10%
MOScout’s Hallway Index: Next Senate Floor Leader
I asked lobbyists, “Who's most likely to be the Senate Floor Leader next session?” 22 replies…
RESULTS
1. Jason Bean… 22.7%
2. Travis Fitzwater… 27.3%
3. Tony Luetkemeyer… 13.6%
4. Curtis Trent… 9.1%
5. Someone else… 0%
6. Way too early to guess… 27.3%
Sample of Comments
· [Way too early] Gotta see what happens in these primaries
· Travis and Curtis are unlikely to run against each other.
· [Luetky] Only one of the three declared strong enough to do the job.
· [Way too early] Remember how no one was talking about O’Laughlin for Floor Leader in June 22? It’s WAAAAAAAYYYYYYY too early.
· Fitzwater is the best fit for the job. Don't know if that band of lunatics will go that route though.
· If it is him then everyone gets a chance in two years at both top spots. That becomes attractive to enough folks to vote for him.
· Curtis Trent will be the next Senate Floor Leader after Bean.
· Primaries will impact who serves as the next FL.
Special Hallway Index: Biden Exit Ahead?
I asked lobbyists, “Will Joe Biden be the Democratic presidential nominee?” 29 replies…
RESULTS
1. Definitely… 10.3%
2. Probably… 27.6%
3. Probably not… 58.6%
4. Definitely not… 3.4%
Sample of Comments
· It’s been simmering for some time that Biden was too old but no one did anything. Dems can no longer deny the obvious but the damage has been done and there’s probably not time to fix it, particularly if Biden doesn’t want to step down.
· I think they scramble to find someone else, but this is what you get when you don’t have robust primaries.
· Unfortunately, we are stuck with him on the ticket
· Probably, because there’s no real path to replace him. The Dems cannot push Kamala aside for a white dude, ie Gavin Newsom.
· I think he’ll be replaced, which changes the races in SD11 and SD17.
· This should scare every Republican candidate. Abortion and a competent Democratic presidential candidate will tank every competitive rep and sen seat. Careful what you wish for.
· After the polling hits Monday morning in the swing states, I think it’s likely the First Lady sees the light - which is all the Dems are waiting for at this point.
· Inertia is so damn powerful in politics
· I gotta think not. For his sake, the country’s sake, etc, I certainly hope not.
· There will be a lot of handwringing but Biden is stubborn. Unless Jill and President Obama set in, no one will be able to convince him to stand aside. If he does, it will be a brawl because you can’t just easily pass over Kamala, the Bernie will want his shot and the establishment will want Gavin Newsome. Get you popcorn...
· He would have to step aside willingly and it’s hard to imagine him doing that or the people who rely on him for their positions of power to let him do that.
· We’ll soon see, but I don’t know if there is enough time and Kamala has lower ratings than Biden.
· One debate debacle doesn’t have a lasting impression until November
· This is clearly headed toward a brokered convention in August. The trick will be moving Kamala out of the way since her numbers are even worse than Biden. My short list: G. Whitmer, JB Pritzker (self funder), Gavin Newsom, Josh Shapiro and outside but great possibility Andy Beshear (all Governors).
· Who else do Democrats have? It’s so early in the election season. Biden’s gaffe won’t even be in folks memory by the start of August.
Who Won the Week?
“Who Won the Week” will return next week.
eMailbag Christofanelli Poll
Your respondent must have missed the notes mentioned in the memo. “Of note: This survey was conducted before any paid media was deployed by the Gladius PAC on behalf of Rep. Christofanelli.”
$5K+ Contributions
American Dream PAC (pro-Kehoe) - $25,000 from GJ Grewe Inc.
American Dream PAC - $20,000 from Collins & Hermann Inc.
Committee for Liberty (pro-Ashcroft) - $10,000 from Another Viceroy PAC.
Lincoln PAC (pro-Hough) - $10,000 from CRL (Lenexa, KS).
Ozark Gateway Leadership PAC (pro-Cody Smith) - $6,850 from Jennifer Monheiser.
Conservative Solutions for Missouri PAC (pro-Mary Elizabeth Coleman) - $11,525 from MO Majority PAC.
Brad PAC (pro-Hudson) - $7,600 from Another Viceroy PAC.
Conservative Leadership of the Ozarks (pro-Travis Smith) - $10,000 from Missouri Soybean Association.
Neighbors United (pro-Contreras) - $10,000 from Terry Bassham.
Ready to Lead (pro-Patty Lewis) - $10,000 from Operating Engineers Local 101 Political Action Committee.
H-PAC (pro-Houx) - $7,500 from PENN Entertainment Inc (Wyomissing, PA).
Independence PAC (pro-McMullen) - $25,000 from Rex Sinquefield.
Independence PAC - $40,000 from Conservative Justice PAC.
Missouri Alliance PAC (pro-Patterson) - $10,000 from Missouri Law Enforcement for Good Govt PAC.
Sander for Missouri - $54,321 from Christopher Sander.
Majority Forward (Senate Dems) - $84,787 from KC Neighbors for Progress.
Majority Forward - $50,000 from Razer for Missouri.
Majority Forward - $15,000 from True North PAC (pro-Arthur).
Majority Forward - $10,000 from AGC of MO PAC.
Majority Forward - $10,000 from Cheyenne International LLC (Grover, NC).
Operating Engineers Local 101 Political Fund - $540,000 from International Union of Operating Engineers- Local101 Political Action Committee.
Policy Over Politics 101 Separate Segregated Fund - $50,000 from International Union of Operating Engineers- Local101 Political Action Committee
Policy Over Politics 101 - $50,000 from International Union of Operating Engineers- Local101 Political Action Committee.
Missouri Energy Development Association Political Action Committee - $10,000 from Evergy Metro, Inc.
Birthdays
Happy birthdays to Rep. Philip Oehlerking, and Tim Green.
Sunday: Brent Evans, Pat Dougherty, and Jeff Porter.