MOScout Daily Update: Senate 15 Poll - Freedom Caucus: “Anyone But Lincoln” - Heartland LLC Attacks Eigel - Sinquefield Targets House Primaries and more…

Situational awareness: One week from the primary election… money keeps flowing into the Republican gubernatorial race with both Mike Kehoe and Bill Eigel recording $300,000+ fundraising hauls yesterday…

Remington/MOScout Poll: Senate 15

Looks like Gregory is opening a lead in Senate 15 after going up on TV.  Also be aware this is a Senate 15 poll.  So, the statewide questions (#2 & #3) are just giving a read inside this part of St. Louis County.

Survey conducted July 26 through July 29, 2024. 322 likely 2024 Republican Primary voters participated in the survey. Survey weighted to match expected turnout demographics for the 2024 Republican Primary Election. Margin of Error is +/-5.4% with a 95% level of confidence. Totals do not always equal 100% due to rounding. Survey conducted by Remington Research Group on behalf of Missouri Scout.

Q1: Candidates in the Republican Primary for Missouri’s 15 th State Senate District are Jim Bowlin, Mark Harder, and David Gregory. If the election were held today, for whom would you vote?

Jim Bowlin: 16%

Mark Harder: 17%

David Gregory: 31%

Undecided: 36%

Q2: Candidates in the Republican Primary for Governor of Missouri are Jay Ashcroft, Bill Eigel, and Mike Kehoe. If the election were held today, for whom would you vote?

Jay Ashcroft: 30%

Bill Eigel: 19%

Mike Kehoe: 25%

Someone else: 9%

Undecided: 17%

Q3: Candidates in the Republican Primary for Attorney General of Missouri are Andrew Bailey and Will Scharf. If the election were held today, for whom would you vote?

Andrew Bailey: 39%

Will Scharf: 27%

Undecided: 34%

Hospitals Hit Richey, Hudson

In the non-committee expenditures, the Missouri Hospital Association reports that they paid for advertising against Rep. Doug Richey ($32,500) running in the Senate 21 GOP primary against Rep. Kurtis Gregory, and against Rep. Brad Hudson ($52,500) running in the Senate 33 GOP primary against Rep. Travis Smith.  See the filing here.

·       Meanwhile, KY3 reports on a local hospital official coming to the defense of Smith after a mailer linking him to a pro-340B vote was explained as “healthcare for illegal immigrants.”  That issue seems to have popped up again during these primaries.

Heartland Conserva-whos?

Heartland Conservative Coalition LLC is responsible for $360,000 worth of negative ads against Bill Eigel.  But who’s responsible?

The filing for the expenditure shows the vendor to produce and place the ads is Axiom Strategies, but there’s no Heartland Conservative Coalition filed with the secretary of state’s office.  The address on their Missouri Ethics Commission filing is a Staples in Jefferson City.

·       See the hard-hitting ad here.

Sinquefield House Picks

In the 8-Day report of Missouri Priorities PAC gives us some insight who Team Rex is backing in House races.  The PAC was established back in 2018, but was reinvigorated a few weeks ago with a $225,000 contribution from Rex Sinquefield.  The PAC did some polling and then spent its money on direct mail pieces.  See the 8-Day filing here.

In addition to mailers for Reps. Phil Christofanelli (running in Senate 23) and Aaron McMullen (running in Senate 11), here’s who they supported…

House 154 – Mark Collins - $20,000

House 155 – Matthew Overcast - $20,000

House 141 – Melissa Schmidt - $18,000

House 108 – Mike Costlow - $16,666

House 128 – Christopher Warwick - $16,000

House 145 – Bryant Wolfin - $15,200

House 153 – Vincent Clubb - $15,000

House 123 – Lisa Thomas - $12,300

House 54 – Brandon Phelps - $10,200

House 64 – Tony Lovasco - $9,800

House 156 – Brian Seitz - $9,600

House 66 – Marlene Terry - $8,000

House 100 – Philip Oehlerking - $5,000

House 113 – Phillip Amato - $5,000

House 110 – Justin Sparks - $5,000

House 163 – Cathryn Loy - $3,200

Freedom Caucus Endorsements

The Freedom Caucus is releasing their endorsements.  See the full release here.

State Senate

District 31 – Rick Brattin

District 33 – Brad Hudson

District 21 – Doug Richey

District 23 – Adam Schnelting

District 29 – Mike Moon

State Representative

District 110 – Justin Sparks

District 157 – Mitch Boggs

District 002 – Mazzie Christensen

District 056 – Michael Davis

District 121 – Bill Hardwick

District 088 – Holly Jones

District 101 – Ben Keathley

District 156 – Brian Seitz

District 139 – Bob Titus

District 102 – Richard West

·       Their endorsement for LG: “Anyone but Lincoln Hough, one of the most liberal “Republicans” serving in the Missouri General Assembly!”

SOS Strategies

Looking at the 8-Reports of the eight Republicans running for secretary of state shows the different avenues each campaign is taking as they try to find the winning equation.

·       Valentina Gomez – Social media videos.

·       Shane Schoeller – Media buy.

·       Denny Hoskins – Cable TV and text.

·       Adam Schwadron – Leader publication inserts and advertisements.

·       Mary Elizabeth Coleman – Radio.

·       Jamie Corley – TV.

·       Dean Plocher – TV.

·       Mike Carter – Text messages, but yesterday he contributed $100K to this campaign.  Could he believe there’s a path with some extra juice?

Mellman Has Bell Leading

The Mellman Group released a poll which showed challenger Wesley Bell establishing a lead against incumbent Congresswoman Cori Bush, 48%-42%.  See the polling memo here.  “A lot can happen in the final two weeks of a race like this, but Bell clearly has the momentum in this contest.”

And

Making the rounds yesterday, this taped conversation between Bell and Bush in which he promised he wouldn’t run against her.  Listen to it here.  “I’m telling you right now. I’m telling you with my word. I am not running against you.  That is not happening.”

eMailbag on Dem Gov Race

If you think endorsements really matter you should check with “Governor” Vince Schoemehl.  In 1992, he had nearly all major endorsements and a lot of money. Fun fact: the deputy campaign manager of Mel Carnahan’s successful 1992 run was Roy Temple. Roy today is lead consultant on Mike Hamra’s campaign.  Does history repeat itself? Maybe not, but it rhymes.

Lobbyists Registrations

Jacob Scott added Missouri State Medical Association, Missouri State Orthopaedic Association, and Missouri Gastroenterology Society.          

$5K+ Contributions

American Dream PAC (pro-Kehoe) - $250,000 from Rex Sinquefield.

American Dream PAC - $50,000 from James Lincoln.

American Dream PAC - $15,000 from Emery Sapp & Sons, Inc.

BILL PAC (pro-Eigel) - $125,000 from Trial Lawyers for Justice (Bozeman, MT).

BILL PAC - $50,000 from Dickerson Oxton LLC.

BILL PAC - $45,000 from MO Republican Attorneys for Civil Justice PAC.

BILL PAC - $25,000 from Holman Schiavone LLC.

BILL PAC - $25,000 from Brian Carlton (Clarksville, TN).

BILL PAC - $25,000 from Claggatt & Sykes Law Firm (Las Vegas, NV).

BILL PAC - $10,000 from Illinois Cafe and Service Company (Des Plaines, IL).

BILL PAC - $10,000 from Harbor Point LLC.

BILL PAC - $7,500 from McCallister Law Firm.

Mike Carter - $100,000 from Michael Carter.

Citizens for Scharf - $20,000 from William Scharf.

Independence PAC (pro-McMullen) - $8,000 from Mighty Missouri PAC (pro-Vescovo).

Red Hawk PAC (pro-Dinkins) - $8,000 from Mighty Missouri PAC.

Freedom Incorporated - $45,937 from Lucas Kunce for Missouri.

AFC Victory Fund - $25,000 from Jeanne Sinquefield.

AFC Victory Fund - $25,000 from Rex Sinquefield.

MO Republican Attorneys for Civil Justice PAC - $10,000 from Myers Injury Law LLC.

Missouri Gaming PAC - $25,400 from Penn Entertainment Inc. (Wyomissing, PA).

Gromowsky for Prosecutor - $6,500 from HCA PAC.

Birthdays

Happy birthdays to Bruce Darrough, and Jennifer Carter Dochler.