GOP’s Senate 22 Poll

Republicans are circulating a polling memo which they say shows Rep. Paul Wieland in good position to seize Senate 22 for the GOP in November.

Here’s the text of the American Viewpoint polling memo:

The following outlines the key findings from a survey commissioned by the Missouri Senate Campaign Committee in Missouri’s 22nd State Senate District.  Interviews with likely November 2014 voters were conducted September 8-9, 2014.  The margin of error for the entire sample (n=300) is +/- 5.7% at the 95% confidence level.  Approximately 30% of interviews were conducted with a cell phone sample of those who can’t be reached on a landline. 

 

The political environment strongly favors Republicans in this district. 

 There is a 10-point GOP advantage on the generic State Senate ballot (44%-34%), indicating Roorda would have to greatly over-perform with Republican-leaning voters to win. 

 Direction of the state is terrible, with only 27% of voters saying things in Missouri are headed in the right direction and 58% saying things are off on the wrong track. 

 Even more concerning for Democrats is that Governor Nixon’s mishandling of Ferguson has greatly damaged his reputation in his own backyard.  His approve-disapprove ratings are only 37%-55%, down dramatically from 55%-39% in June. 

Even though Roorda has been on cable for several weeks and is better known at this point than Wieland, the race is essentially tied. 

 Wieland trails Roorda by only 2-points (33%-35%), with 28% still undecided. 

 Among those with an opinion of both candidates (25% of the electorate), Wieland leads 48%-46%. 

 Given the Democratic problems both in the state and at the national level, it’s very possible that Roorda’s base will be depressed and that is evident by the fact that Wieland leads 40%-33% among high propensity voters.  

 

Paul Wieland appears to have the wind at his back at this point of the campaign and once he begins the paid voter contact phase, should quickly overtake Roorda and recapture this district for Republicans.

 

Originally in September 19 MOScout.