Moody on State Revenue

In notes to his clients, budget guru and lobbyist Jim Moody offers some insight into an interesting situation with the state revenues…

 

“The FY 2014 consensus general revenue estimate is $7.929 billion.  The consensus estimate was not revised after the end of FY 2013 even though FY 2013 revenues grew by 10.1%.  Actual GR receipts for FY 2013 were $8.082 billion, driven by huge increases in one-time capital gains receipts.  So FY 2013 GR receipts were greater than the FY 2014 consensus estimate.

 

 

“This may seem counter-intuitive, but Missouri can reach the current 2014 consensus estimate even if revenues decline by $153 million from FY 2013 actual receipts.  This would be a decline of slightly less than 2%.  So flat revenues are cause for concern, but they do not necessarily mean further budget withholdings.”

 

 

Originally in October 14 MOScout.