MOScout Poll: State of the Statewide Elections

We polled late last week (September 20).  Here are top lines from 817 registered voters, likely to vote in November.  Margin of error +/- 3.4%.  I found a few things surprising, which is why you poll I suppose.  Highest among those surprises is the still tight McCaskill-Akin race.


1. What is the most important problem facing the State of Missouri right now, unemployment and jobs, government spending, education or health care?

Unemployment and Jobs 47.2%

Government Spending 18.4%

Education 17.2%

Health Care 17.2%


Jobs still dominant issue of the election cycle.



2. If the election for President was today, would you vote for Barack Obama, the Democrat or Mitt Romney the Republican?

Obama 44.3%

Romney 50.2%

Undecided 5.5%


Romney opening nice lead compared to our last poll six weeks ago.  Our 6-point Romney lead is slightly less than Real Clear Politics 7.3 average of other polls.



3. And for U.S. Senator, if the election was today, would you vote for Todd Akin, the Republican or Claire McCaskill, the Democrat?

Akin 47.5%

McCaskill 46.5%

Undecided 6.0%


Last time we had McCaskill up one point.  That means that despite all of Akin’s missteps and unforced errors we’re still neck-and-neck here.  I do suspect that McCaskill has been pulling some punches.  But with the passing of tomorrow’s deadline for Akin to drop that may change.


Furthermore, back in November 2011 where respondents were asked whether or not they would return Claire McCaskill to office.  29% said they would re-elect her, 26% said they would consider another candidate and 45% said they would vote to replace her.  That number may be firmer that I’d believed.  Regardless of Akin’s flaws, it appears that a significant number of Missouri voters still find reasons to support him.



4. And for Governor, if the election was today, would you vote for Jay Nixon, the Democrat or Dave Spence, the Republican?

Nixon 54.9%

Spence 38.3%

Undecided 6.8%


Spence needs his new attacks to move the dial in this race if he’s going to have a shot.



5. And for Lieutenant Governor if the election was today, would you vote for Peter Kinder, the Republican or Susan Montee, the Democrat?

Kinder 48.8%

Montee 40.8%

Undecided 10.4%


Lager’s negative attacks in the primary seem to have left no permanent damage to Kinder.



6. And for Attorney General if the election was today, would you vote for Chris Koster, the Democrat or Ed Martin, the Republican?

Koster 51.1%

Martin 39.2%

Undecided 9.7%


Koster has opened up a wide lead.  His cash advantage will make it hard for Martin to overtake him. Koster and Nixon are the only two in this survey over 50%.



7. And for Secretary of State if the election was today, would you vote for Shane Schoeller, the Republican or Jason Kander, the Democrat?

Schoeller 44.3%

Kander 36.9%

Undecided 18.8%


The lower profile of the secretary of state’s race is resulting in a lot more undecided even as we enter final stretch.  Top of the ticket undecided in 5-6% range.  These lesser races are 17-19% undecided.



8. And for State Treasurer if the election was today, would you vote for Clint Zweifel, the Democrat or Cole McNary, the Republican?

Zweifel 41.6%

McNary 41.7%

Undecided 16.7%


McNary holding tough in this poll.  But with far greater resources for the final push, one assumes that Zweifel converts more undecided.