MOScout Weekender: MOScout Poll Shows Galloway Lead, Amendment 2 Solid - Hallway Sees Small Dem Gains - Who Won the Week and more...

Notes from the Parson Prop D Tour

From a MOScouter with good seats…

Governor Mike Parson got abundant positive press coverage. Rolla, Hannibal, St. Joseph, Cape Girardeau, Joplin – outstate conservative media markets where he stressed Prop D’s 66 percent statewide funding increase for county roads and city streets. He stood alongside fellow conservative Republicans in their hometowns – Senate President Pro Tem Ron Richard in Joplin, Speaker Todd Richardson and Sen. Doug Libla in Poplar Bluff, Sen. Brian Munzlinger and Rep. Craig Redmon in Hannibal, Sen. Wayne Wallingford and Reps. Kathy Swan and Donna Lichtenegger in Cape Girardeau, Sen. Dan Hegeman in St. Joseph. The crowds were bipartisan – KC Council Member and former Democratic Senator (and mayoral candidate) Jolie Justus was on the front row at the Northland Chamber of Commerce.  And across the state, St. Louis Mayor Lyda Krewson and St. Louis County Executive Steve Stenger praised Parson’s leadership on infrastructure. The $6 million in new recurring street and bridge money for the City of St. Louis and the new recurring $16.6 million for St. Louis County and its municipalities didn’t hurt, either.

The most impressive show was Friday morning at the corporate headquarters of Clayco, the big construction company, where mayors, corporate movers including Kathy Osborn of the Regional Business Council, and hundreds of sign-waving, cheering union members gave Parson applause and ovations. “There hasn’t been a similar broad coalition like this in my memory. Parson starts the tour standing with Dan Mehan at the Missouri Chamber of Commerce annual conference, and he ends the week with union hardhats rolling out the red carpet because Prop D will create thousands of good jobs. The Parson honeymoon continues and it’s amazing,” said one long-time observer.

And This

“[Parson’s] informal, likable style was a hit in both urban and rural areas... The new governor is a regular guy who seems more like your friendly neighbor than a politician.”

MOScout Weekly Poll: Statewides and MMJ

Amazingly over 1,000 people listened to the long questions about medical marijuana and responded to this week’s poll. 1,215 likely 2018 General Election voters… Margin of Error is +/-2.7%.  See the full poll results here.

The news from this poll: Nicole Galloway is opening a small lead.  And there’s some separation of the MMJs with Amendment 2 looking good while Amendment 3 in trouble.

TOPLINES

Q: The candidates in the General Election for United States Senate are the Republican Josh Hawley, the Democrat Claire McCaskill, the Libertarian Japheth Campbell, the Green Party candidate Jo Crain, and the Independent candidate Craig O’Dear. If the election were held today, for whom would you vote?

Josh Hawley: 47%

Claire McCaskill: 46%

Japheth Campbell: 2%

Jo Crain: 1%

Craig O’Dear: 1%

Undecided: 2%

Q: The candidates in the 2018 General Election for State Auditor are the Republican Saundra McDowell and the Democrat Nicole Galloway. If the election were held today, for whom would you vote?

Saundra McDowell: 42%

Nicole Galloway: 46%

Undecided: 12%

Q: Amendment 2 - Shall the Missouri Constitution be amended to: -allow the use of marijuana for medical purposes, and create regulations and licensing/certification procedures for marijuana and marijuana facilities; -impose a 4 percent tax on the retail sale of marijuana; and -use funds from these taxes for health and care services for military veterans by the Missouri Veterans Commission and to administer the program to license/certify and regulate marijuana and marijuana facilities? This proposal is estimated to generate annual taxes and fees of $18 million for state operating costs and veterans programs, and $6 million for local governments. Annual state operating costs are estimated to be $7 million.

Yes: 53%

No: 38%

Undecided: 9%

Q: Amendment 3 - Shall the Missouri Constitution be amended to: -allow the use of marijuana for medical purposes, and create regulations and licensing procedures for marijuana and marijuana facilities; -impose a 15 percent tax on the retail sale of marijuana, and a tax on the wholesale sale of marijuana flowers and leaves per dry-weight ounce to licensed facilities; and -use funds from these taxes to establish and fund a state research institute to conduct research with the purpose of developing cures and treatments for cancer and other incurable diseases or medical conditions? This proposal is estimated to generate annual taxes and fees of $66 million. State governmental entities estimate initial implementation costs of $186,000 and increased annual operating costs of $500,000.

Yes: 38%

No: 51%

Undecided: 11%

Q: Proposition C - Do you want to amend Missouri law to: -remove state prohibitions on personal use and possession of medical cannabis (marijuana) with a written certification by a physician who treats a patient diagnosed with a qualifying medical condition; -remove state prohibitions on growth, possession, production, and sale of medical marijuana by licensed and regulated facilities, and a facility's licensed owners and employees; -impose a 2% tax on the retail sale of medical marijuana; and -use funds from this tax for veterans' services, drug treatment, early childhood education, and for public safety in cities with a medical marijuana facility? State government entities estimate initial and one-time costs of $2.6 million, annual costs of $10 million, and annual revenues of at least $10 million. Local government entities estimate no annual costs and are expected to have at least $152,000 in annual revenues.

Yes: 41%

No: 46%

Undecided: 13%

MOScout’s Hallway Index: House Races

I asked the group of building denizens to give me their read of how the House races will shake out this cycle.  They almost entirely of the mid set of a small to modest pick-up for Dems, echoing the general sentiment I hear that a “blue wave” won’t lead to huge upsets here in Missouri.

How will State House races shake out this cycle?    27 responses….

Slight GOP pick-up (1-3 seats):  0%

Breakeven:   3.7%

Slight Dem pick-up (1-3 seats):  63%

Modest Dem pick-up (4-7 seats): 29.6%

Strong Dem pick-up (8+ seats):  3.7%

Sample of comments

Slight Dem

Probably pick up a few seats but this year is definitely a missed opportunity for Dems.

Modest Dem

On the low end of moderate Dem pickup.  All comes down to if the GOP Kavanaugh bounce dissipates or not.

Stellar GOP fundraising will blunt the impact of the “blue wave.” Predicting Dems will flip 9 seats but only net 6 with the GOP flipping 3 of their own.

And

No comment at this point as voters will move 10 days within the election. Too early still.

Updated MOScout Forecast

I’ve made some changes to my forecast spreadsheet. (See the spreadsheet here).  The biggest change is to move Senate 22 from tilt Dem to tilt GOP.  That’s based on a few data points: MOScout poll showed Paul Wieland with a solid lead; Hallway is bullish on Wieland’s chances; and Republicans tell me their polling in JeffCo is solid.  They think it’ll all (House races as well as Senate 22) be red on the Election night map.

Among House races are minor adjustments.  Derek Grier (House 100) moves from Safe GOP to Likely.  Dem candidate Helena Webb working hard.  Moving Cornejo (House 64) and Conway (House 104) seats both from Lean GOP to Likely GOP as I’m thinking that St. Charles won’t be among the places we see a blue wave in Missouri.

And

I always “lock” my predictions in two weeks before election.  That means Tuesday I put out my final predictions (read: guesses).

Boozed and Snoozed?

Kansas City Star reports that “Kansas City Councilman and 2019 mayoral candidate Quinton Lucas was arrested on suspicion of DUI early Friday morning in downtown Lawrence.  Lawrence police said they responded around 11:30 p.m. Thursday evening to the area of 8th and Massachusetts after a report of someone unconscious in a parked vehicle. After investigating, Lucas was taken to Douglas County Jail, where he was released on a personal recognizance bond and ordered to appear in Municipal Court next month… [Lucas ]posted this statement on his Facebook page… ‘Last evening, I attended a university event and a post event gathering. I consumed alcohol. At 10:45 pm, I decided to leave. When I got to my car I decided that I was not prepared to safely drive home to Kansas City. I decided to behave responsibly and wait in my car until it was safe to drive. Apparently, while waiting, I dozed off. I never moved or attempted to drive my car…’”

Who Won the Week?

Josh Hawley – Lots of small things going right.  GOP finds inspiration in Supreme Court confirmation process, good debate performance, lots of third-party ads, tiny lead in MOScout poll….

Mike Parson – Getting dinged by former Greiten-ites for pushing a tax increase, but the new governor is doing what he thinks is right – instead of what’s best for his next political move – and he’s having fun doing it.

Amendment 2 – This week’s poll shows that the New Approach ballot initiative is headed for passage while its nemesis, the Bradshaw proposal, is sinking.  Ballot position helps, but also voters probably like the lower tax rate in NA’s version.

HRCC – Breaks old fundraising record in a year where Republicans aren’t real excited.

Scott Turk – The former staffer is still pulling down $5K a month as a campaign worker for Greitens for Missouri?  Ride the gravy train ‘til it stops young man….

Get the downloadable PDF of Who Won the Week here.

Lobbyist Registrations

Frederick Donald Koonce and Brian Scott Miller added Missouri National Guard.

$5K+ Contributions

MO Energy Dev Association State Line Political Committee - $33,333 from Ameren Missouri.

Find the Cures - $11,725 from Bradley Bradshaw.

Missouri Voter Project Federal Committee - $10,000 from David Roberts.

Property Casualty Insurers Association of America Political Account - $8,774 from Property Casualty Insurers Association of America.

Amendment2IsABigLie.Com - $145,234 from Bradley Bradshaw.

Amendment2IsABigLie.Com - $8,475 from Bradley Bradshaw.

SaferMO.Com - $10,000 from Missouri Asphalt Pavement Assn.

SaferMO.Com - $10,000 from Blue Cross Blue Shield KC.

CLEAN Missouri - $20,000 from Langdon & Emison LLC.

CLEAN Missouri - $15,000 from Edelman & Thompson LLC.

CLEAN Missouri - $10,000 from SWMW Law.

CLEAN Missouri - $10,000 from Brown & Crouppen PC.

CLEAN Missouri - $7,500 from O’Brien Law Firm PC.

House Victory Committee - $5,001 from Citizens for Crystal Quade.

House Victory Committee - $10,000 from Peter Merideth for MO Progress.

Jeffco Watch - $25,000 from Alliance for Economic Progress.

Friends of the St Louis Zoo - $200,000 from Centene Management Company LLC.

CLEAN Missouri - $500,000 from National Education Association.

Keep Government Accountable - $25,000 from United Auto Workers V Cap.

House Republican Campaign Committee Inc - $10,000 from Isle of Capri Casino Boonville.