MOScout Daily Update: Treasurer Sweepstakes Update - Margie 2.0? - Senate 17 in Play? - Manzo for SOS and more...

Treasurer Sweepstakes Updated

Here’s the new “power ranking” of names mentioned as possible replacement treasurers, from most likely to least likely.  Marking off a few names: Vicky Hartzler and Sarah Steelman are said to be uninterested in the job; and Bev Randles are not under consideration by Team Parson.

1.      Brenda Talent

2.      Shamed Dogan

3.      Sandy Crawford

4.      Jeanie Riddle

5.      Kathy Swan

6.      Jean Evans

But

A couple of sources says that there’s at least a 50% chance that Parson’s appointment will be… someone not on this list.  In fact, they say he’s looking for an “out-of-the-box” choice.  While they’re still focused on bringing some diversity (most likely gender diversity) to the statewide ticket, they’re searching for a business or civic leader.

And

One MOScouter says they should drop the gender requirement and play a bit of Jeff City chess… “[House Budget Chair] Scott Fitzpatrick [is] eminently qualified and removes the governor’s biggest pre-session concern to having a successful year… this would be an Eric Greitens/Ryan Silvey stroke of genius…”

 

Margie 2.0?

The State Board of Education interviewed candidates for the position of DESE Commissioner yesterday.  See the Post-Dispatch reporting on it here.

The four candidates were: Roger Dorson, interim commissioner; Eric Knost, Rockwood School District Superintendent; Bill Nicely, Kearney School District Superintendent; and former DESE Commissioner Margie Vandeven.

Alisa Nelson reports that “MO Board of Education President Charlie Shields says a unanimous vote has been reached about a permanent educationer commissioner. No offer made yet.”

One education watcher thinks that means that it’s Vandeven.  Their thinking: “Here's the thing - Margie would not have allowed her name to be in the mix unless she was likely because she has a good gig now and wouldn't want to mess that up…”  She’s currently Director of Educational Partnerships for SAS.

One would think that the superintendents would be pushing for one of their own to take over.  But Vandeven seems to be respected by the board members who were appointed pre-Greitens.  Four of those are on the board now: Charlie Shields, Peter Herschend, Mike Jones and Victor Lenz.  That could form the basis for a consensus to return to Vandeven.

 

Senate 17 in Play?

One reader thinks that Senate 17 will be part of the Senate battleground districts in 2020.  I mentioned Republicans needing to defend Senate 15 and 19.  Senate 17 is held now by Dems after Lauren Arthur beat Kevin Corlew in a special election. 

He writes, “Arthur is most definitely vulnerable in 2020. She won a special election in a June off-year election. If that election had been in November, I believe the Republican would have won. With Donald Trump on the ticket and increased voter intensity on all sides- that will be a fight.  And if you look at Ridgeway and Silvey, they both won it 52-48 (with the exception of 2016 when Silvey didn’t have a real race.) It’s a tight district… and Arthur could get Corlew again or Jerry Nolte, who is fresh off a second countywide win for Presiding Commissioner. Credible either way…”

It’s a classic swing district, with a Dem tilt perhaps.  Trump did win it in 2016 (52.4% – 47.6%), but Jason Kander bested Roy Blunt (55.5% – 45.5%) and Chris Koster beat Eric Greitens (52% – 48%).

 

It’s Conservative, Not Renegade

I’m told that my previous writing about a possible faction within the Senate Republican Caucus misses the mark by labeling them as a renegade caucus.  Instead they see themselves as the conservative or ultra conservatives within the caucus.  Here’s are some data points why they shouldn’t be considered “renegade.”

·         Pro Tem Dave Schatz has been very solicitous of senators’ priorities.  They don’t see him implementing a top-down agenda.

·         The talk of Lembke staffing group of senators is just talk, nothing has happened.  In other words, there’s no infrastructure being built for these senators.

·         Their differences with broader caucus are issue-specific, relating mainly to economic issues.  There’s unanimity within the caucus on the social issues of guns and abortion.  This means while there may be some debate on emphasis or approaches on issues like taxes/tax incentives, it doesn’t necessarily represent a fracture.

 

Manzo for SOS

In the new committees (below), see that Dale Manzo has started a committee to run for secretary of state as a Republican.  Manzo runs Manchester Electric.  His campaign already has a website, Facebook page, and twitter account.  Among his 36 twitter followers…. Saundra McDowell.

 

Rumorville: Chambers for RGA ED?

One MOScouter says that there’s a rumor that Austin Chambers is in the running to be the new Republican Governors Association Executive Director…  We’ll see…

 

New Committees

Dale Manzo formed a candidate committee (Manzo For Missouri) to run for Secretary of State as a Republican.

Matthew Simpson formed a candidate committee (Committee To Elect Matthew Simpson) to run for Springfield Councilperson.

 

$5K+ Contributions

HealthPAC - $5,100 from SWMO Healthcare Committee.

XCaliber PAC - $7,500 from Lee Levinson.

XCaliber PAC - $7,500 from Bruce Taylor.

 

Birthdays

Happy birthdays to Matt Blunt, Rep. Dan Houx, and former Reps. Michael Vogt, Sharon Pace, and Myron Neth.

 

MOScout Schedule

There’ll be a morning update (probably short like today) tomorrow.  But then I’m off Thanksgiving and Friday with no Weekender (no poll, no Hallway Index, no Who Won the Week).  And then back on Monday as we get ready for pre-files and session coming sooner than you think….