Monday, October 9, 2017

MOScout Exclusive: O’Laughlin’s Senate 18 Opening Quarter

Cindy O’Laughlin will likely file her October fundraising quarter numbers today or tomorrow.  It will show nearly $60K raised in addition to the $100K loan she gave herself.  In a post-Amendment 2 environment, that’s a solid quarter for a state senate candidate.  Among her more prominent donors… Greg Hoberock ($2,600), Brad Lager ($2,600), Stan Herzog ($2,600), Tim Jones’ Leadership for America ($1,000), Aaron Baker ($1,000), Bill Eigel ($500), Kathy Chinn ($500), and Jane Cunningham ($250).

With about $155K in the bank, the odds are that O’Laughlin will have put some distance between herself and her rivals in terms of money raised.

Reps. Craig Redmon, Lindell Shumake, and Nate Walker have not filed their October quarters yet.  As of their July reports they had $28,258; 3,392; and $1,120 on-hand respectively.

 

Q&A #1: What’s the Battleplan in the Senate 8 Special?

Last weekend’s MOScout poll showed the Senate 8 special election (to replace Will Kraus) as a toss-up.  (See the poll here).  The two major party nominees, Republican Rep. Mike Cierpiot and Democrat Hillary Shields each received support from 36% of the voters, according to the poll.  Jacob Turk, the Independent candidate, had 16% and 12% were undecided.  Turk has made a name for himself in local Republican circles by running -unsuccessfully – against Congressman Emanuel Cleaver for many years.

This poll offered a few nuggets beyond the horse-race numbers.  First, more people are watching politics more closely now in the age of Trump.  But the engagement is higher among liberals/Democrats.

Second, Turk’s name ID doesn’t translate into strong awareness.  Most voters incorrectly identified the position for which he’s currently running.

And finally Turk is definitely taking votes – would-be Republican votes – from Cierpiot, the Republican nominee.

 

The battleplan for Cierpiot then likely to hit both Turk and Shields. He’ll try to pick off as many Turk voters as possible while ramping GOP intensity.  “Work your GOTV and depress the other side. Basic Special Election strategy.”

Some assume that Cierpiot will be the beneficiary of some deep-pocketed allies.  These could include contributions from the war-chests of term limited legislators like Pro Tem Ron Richard and Speaker Todd Richardson. Additionally someone like David Humphreys could help out through one of his committees.  It’s said that Richard doesn’t want Turk in the Senate because he may “join Schaaf” as part of the “rebels.”

Republicans will use their money advantage (one number mentioned was a budget around $750,000) for a few weeks of hard hitting attacks, and the question is how Dems respond.  Will they be more cautious “to pour cash into Shields when they have to protect folks like Jill Schupp next year?”

They would appear to have the McCaskill-Akin play perfectly teed up.  An independent expenditure saying that Turk is “too conservative” or “too much like Trump” could both siphon more votes from Cierpiot while energize their own Democratic voters.  Or at the very least it would create some confusion among GOP voters.

Republicans are banking that Democrats won’t be able to execute this strategy… “[The] problem Dems have is Dems, they are always so frigging bad at running races.  They put an amazing varsity team together under Kander and McCaskill but are just terrible is state legislative seats.”

Another Republican: “It could work, but with their limited resources, they probably… focus on boosting Shields and working GOTV.”

And

Multiple sources say that his poll is tectonic shift from a previous poll Republicans had done on the race.  That one had shown Turk running ahead with 33%, Cierpiot second with 26% and Shields at just 23%.

Republicans believed at that time – it’s not clear that this poll will change their mindset (though it may) – that Shields had a “ceiling” around 30%, meaning that she wasn’t the real threat.  Turk was the one upon whom they had to concentrate their fire.

 

Scooplette: Nonnemaker Exits Onder’s Office

Word coming out of the Republican Senate caucus is that Bob Onder’s chief of staff Ryan Nonnemaker is moving on.  Nonnemaker had previously worked for GoRail, and he staffed Jason Crowell before that. It’s a bit of a shocker because according to Senate-side observers the two seemed to share a good rapport.

 

Follow-Up on MHDC

Word is that the governor’s people are looking at the chessboard and rather ho-hum about former Sen. Jason Crowell getting Senate approval or not.

They note that according to statute the commission need 6 members for a quorum.  Kick off Crowell and the governor can simply sit out any meeting to deprive the commission of the ability to do business.

In other words, the governor can freeze MHDC without much effort.

 

Humphreys Profile

Springfield News-Leader has a profile of David Humphreys. See it here.

Pull Quote: Allies say Humphreys is whip-smart, deeply thoughtful, and just as generous to charitable causes in Joplin as he is to Republican politicians in Jefferson City and Washington, D.C. Detractors say he’s an ultra-rich bully who uses his money to buy votes and power…  He considers himself a libertarian “with no allegiance to a particular party” and seems more in line with Democrats on some social issues.  His grandfather worked as a butcher and a railroad laborer who came out of a hard-earned retirement to save an investment he had made in a roofing company. He founded TAMKO, the company Humphreys now runs, at age 69.  "Affluence is not a tradition on either side of my family," Humphreys said…  "I support gay rights," Humphreys told the News-Leader. "I support drug legalization in principle though I believe we need to see how legalization in places like Colorado evolves as we consider it as a policy issue. I do not like the idea of abortion but nevertheless I support a woman's right to choose."

 

Politico: GOP Hopefuls Must Have Mega Donors

Politico writes… GOP hopefuls' new must-have: Megadonors.  See it here.

Pull Quote: Missouri Attorney General Josh Hawley has not officially entered the race against Democratic Sen. Claire McCaskill — but the Club for Growth has already lined up a donor pledging to match donations of up to $5 million to support Hawley. The identity of the donor is unknown, but billionaire business executive David Humphreys has donated millions to Hawley in the past… Some Republican Senate strategists believe the early financial muscle-flexing could result in less crowded primaries, as the GOP prepares to go after 10 Democratic senators in states carried by President Donald Trump in 2016. In Missouri, Hawley’s support from two big names — Humphreys and longtime fundraiser Sam Fox — has effectively cleared the Republican field for his expected campaign against McCaskill…

 

Roberts Announces for Senate 34

Harry Roberts formally announced for Senate 34.

Press release: Buchanan County Presiding Commissioner, Harry Roberts, has announced his campaign for State Senate… In addition to being a small business owner and entrepreneur, Roberts is a proven conservative outsider with a record of making tough decisions. He has fought tirelessly for the conservative principles of limited government, by cutting spending and keeping taxes low… Harry Roberts and his family reside in St. Joseph Missouri. He was elected Presiding Commissioner of Buchanan County in 2014 and also serves as president of the Northwest Missouri Republican Club.

What It Means

This is not big news, Roberts has been baked into the Senate 34 cake for a while.  Tony Leutkemeyer is thought to have the governor’s support while Roberts may be attracting support from the Senate “rebels” who want a more independent-minded senator in this seat.

 

Finally

GOP bad boy Roger Stone is for medical marijuana.  See it here.

 

Today’s Events

Powered by Mary Scruggs’ indispensable calendar:

Columbus Day Observed – state offices closed.

MSGC Charity Golf – JCCC.

 

New Committees

Catalyst PAC was formed.  The treasurer is Katie Eaton, presumably the wife of Catalyster, Alex Eaton.  Catalyst is just the latest among the major lobbying firms to create a PAC to raise money.   This is part of the overall proliferation of PACs due to Amendment 2’s passage.

 

Lobbyists Registration Changes

Darrell Moore added Missouri Attorney General’s  Office.

Paul Snider deleted Kansas City Area Transportation Authority.

 

$5K+ Contributions

Missouri Energy Development Association Political Action Committee - $12,700 from Sire Missouri Inc.

New Approach PAC - $10,000 from Josh Ungaro.

New Approach PAC - $10,000 from Summit Meadow LLC.

Catalyst PAC - $15,000 from Emerson Electric Co.

Missouri Insurance Political Action Committee - $25,000 from Amerigroup Corporation.

Missouri Senate Campaign Committee - $10,000 from Monsanto Company.

Missouri Senate Campaign Committee - $10,000 from Right Choice Managed Care Inc.

Missouri Senate Campaign Committee - $10,000 from The Doe Run Company.

KC Transportation Transit and Tourism Committee (KC3T) - $10,000 from Kansas City Live LLC.

KC Transportation Transit and Tourism Committee (KC3T) - $50,000 from Western Missouri & Kansas Laborers District Council.

KC Transportation Transit and Tourism Committee (KC3T) - $10,000 from Barkley.

KC Transportation Transit and Tourism Committee (KC3T) - $25,000 from JE Dunn Construction Company.

New Approach PAC - $85,000 from The Smart Age LLC

House Republican Campaign Committee Inc - $10,000 from RAI Services Company.

New Approach Missouri - $50,000 from Larry Malashock.

New Approach Missouri - $100,000 from Drug Policy Action.

 

Birthdays

Happy birthdays to St. Louis Board President Lewis Reed, Ascension’s Caroline Battles, and Erin Elliott.