Wednesday, October 11, 2017

The Coming Curtman Pivot

Near the end of Eli Yokley’s article about Attorney General Josh Hawley’s formal announcement of candidacy he mentions Rep. Paul Curtman.  Sounds like we’ll be seeing Curtman pivot to auditor very soon.  See it here.

Pull Quote:  Another potential Republican candidate, conservative state Rep. Paul Curtman, spoke kindly of Hawley during a Tuesday interview. “It seems like he’s got the entire spectrum of what makes up the Republican Party or conservative base backing him. He has what it takes to be a uniting candidate,” he said. Curtman said he is likely to make an announcement in the coming week about the exploratory phase of his campaign — but he hinted he may be looking at another race. When talking to Republicans in the state, he said, he discovered “a lot of support to run for state auditor,” the only other statewide contest on the ballot next year in Missouri against a Democratic incumbent.

Q&A #1: Who’s Frontrunner for GOP Auditor?

Short answer: no one.

David Wasinger will have the money and Paul Curtman will have the hearts of the rank and file and a grassroots army.  It may be one of those campaigns where consultants really do matter.  Can Wasinger employ his money effectively?  Can Curtman raise enough money to avoid being swamped by Wasinger?

And Haefner for…?

Meanwhile look at this enigmatic invite to a fundraiser next month.  It has Rep. Marsha Haefner running for Senate 1.  Perhaps it’s just being consistent with her current MEC paperwork.  But if that’s her plan, it scuttles the recent talk of a statewide race.  And it would mean she’d finish her time in the House, take two years off and run for the state senate seat in 2020.

Additionally the invite shows former Rep. Shelia Solon running for House 9 (Delus Johnson termed) rather than the rumored possible Senate 34 race.

Luetkemeyer Quarter Coming

Word is that Tony Luetkemeyer – running in Senate 34 – will exceed the whisper numbers when he reports his October quarter.  Look for a number north of $190K.  Of that only $5K will be his own personal loan.  This puts him in the elite group of newcomers who are showing very strong fundraising ability.

But – remember what I wrote yesterday: in the Amendment 2 era we’re going to see a lot more independent expenditure and a lot more PAC involvement.  As important as the reported number are the signs that a candidate has third-parties interested in their race.

To that end, Luetkemeyer’s report will have Stan Herzog on it, as a $2,600 donor.  That’s great, but it also means there may be deeper pockets helping his campaign down the road.

UM Lobbyist Saga

Yesterday Rudi Keller reported that “the University of Missouri System called off its search for a staff lobbyist Tuesday, ending a process begun three months ago to replace employees laid off because of budget cuts. In a news release, President Mun Choi said he would work with campus chancellors and contract lobbyists already being paid by the university to advocate for UM’s legislative priorities and rebuild fractured relationships.”  See it here.

Close observers of situation say the university had narrowed the initial field of fifteen down to two finalists.  They blame the university’s inability to pull the trigger on “personalities.”  Two camps developed, each opposed to one of the candidates.  Yesterday’s statement essentially means it’s a do-over for this process.  No one believes – or wants to believe – that the university would be foolish enough to forgo the critical position.

St. Louis County Dem Battles Ahead

St. Louis County Executive Steve Stenger looks to have a few home-front battles brewing.  For starters, some thought that his Democratic primary opponent, Mark Mantovani, might slink away after his campaign failed to catch fire.  Instead Mantovani appears ready to go it alone.  He’s reporting another $250K check from himself, added to his campaign at the quarter’s end.

And a tipster writes that Stenger is getting in deeper in County Council races….  “John Gaskin will be running against Hazel Erby for the County Council next year. He would be backed by Stenger who is anxious to regain control of the council. Gaskin is connected to the St. Louis County NAACP (while) Erby is part of the new majority on the County Council that formed this year. Three of the four Democrats on the seven-member Council do not get along with the Democratic county executive. Along with one Republican member they control the council….”

Bits

Last week, New Approach PAC (Brad Ketcher treasurer) amended their MEC paperwork to specify which initiative petition they’re focused on this cycle.  See the IP language here.

Morning Consult has Trump approval ratings in every state.  Missouri is still showing positive Trump favorability, though he is below 50%.  See it here.

Marco Guido's Terra Strategies ran the grassroots field campaign that reversed a soda tax in Cook County.  See it here.

eMailbag on NFL

With regards to looking into tax breaks for the Chiefs in light of Anthem protests, where has all the consternation been every time the fans at Arrowhead end the Anthem with "home of the Chiefs"? It is blasphemous for a black man to take a knee during the Anthem, but ok for a white man to change its words…

New Committees

David Linton formed a candidate committee (Linton For Missouri) to run for House 97 (where McCaherty resigned) as a Republican. His treasurer is Bill Alter.

From Linton’s LinkedIn, he worked at Ameren for 19 years until 2004 and since then has been at his own law firm, David C. Linton, LLC.

Beau Gooch formed a candidate committee (Committee To Elect Beau Gooch, Amanda Gooch Treasurer) to run for House 144 (Fitzwater to Parole Board) as a Republican.

Frank Miller formed a candidate committee (Frank Miller For Judge) to run for Associate Circuit Judge Cape Girardeau County as a Republican.

Lobbyists Registration Changes

Scott Penman, David Winton and Kaycee Nail added Operation Food Search.

Jason Zamkus added The Nine Network of Public Media.

$5K+ Contributions

Missouri Senate Campaign Committee - $25,000 from Committee to Elect Ron Richard.

CLEAN Missouri - $5,005 from Advocates of Planned Parenthood of the St. Louis Region & Southwest Missouri.

CLEAN Missouri - $43,658 from Missouri Jobs with Justice Voter Action.

Mantovani for STL - $250,000 from Mark Mantovani.

Mantovani for STL  - $5,500 from Lynda Castellano.

KC Transportation Transit and Tourism Committee (KC3T) - $10,000 from Bill Gautreaux.

KC Transportation Transit and Tourism Committee (KC3T) - $15,000 from Lewis Rice LLC.

KC Transportation Transit and Tourism Committee (KC3T) - $25,000 from American Century Investments.

Birthdays

Happy birthdays to Kenny Rothman, Jeanne Kirkton, Jamala Rogers and Jay Hardenbrook.