Monday, June 20, 2016

Primary Guides

The MOScout Primary Guides are in the Special Reports.  For each primary there are candidate photos and biographies, as well as links to campaign websites and Twitter accounts, a summary of their April finance reports, and a brief analysis of the race.

See the Dem Senate Primary Report here.

See the Republican Senate Primary Report here.

See the Dem House Primary Report here.

See the Republican House Primary Report here.


These will be updated, so feel free to send me any corrections or suggestions you have.  I will publish an official “forecast” next week, and update that every week until two weeks before the primary when I stick to my final race predictions.


One recurring theme you will notice in the Republican House Primary guide is how many incumbent state representatives are facing primaries – with outside funding i.e. David Humpheys and Rex Sinquefield.  For Humphreys, his targeted list is nothing new as he’s seeking to oust or at least punish legislators who are obstructing changes he’d like to see in the state’s labor laws.

Sinquefield’s Missouri Club for Growth has a smaller target list, but it doesn’t vary much from Humphreys list, even though Sinquefield has never put a huge emphasis on labor issues.  He’s been more concerned with tax policy and education as engines of economic growth.


A Grietens Connection to LG PAC

KMBC’s Mike Mahoney reported on Friday of a possible connecting between the mysterious LG PAC and Eric GreitensSee it here.  Mahoney shows footage of a Greitens campaign event with LG PAC treasurer Hank Monsees chatting quite amicably with Gretiens.  The footage is just days apart from the establishment of the PAC which targeted John Brunner.

And while the PAC’s website hinted it would be attacking Greitens and Catherine Hanaway as well – the PAC has so far focused entirely on Brunner.

Brunner and Greitens has feuded, and Greitens had previously blamed Brunner for the equally mystery Patriots for America PAC due to a circumstantial connection.

It seems now they’re even.


Second Catherine Hanaway Ad

Catherine Hanaway’s second TV ad is titled “Lawlessness.”  See it here.  It conjured up the riots of Ferguson, the “lawlessness” at Mizzou and the climbing murder rates, and then offers Hanaway’s prosecutorial experience as the answer.

As noted on Twitter, it is now the second ad of Republican gubernatorial candidates to use image of Melissa Click as she was calling for “muscle.”


In the large contributions, Hanaway pulled in another six figure check – over $300K – from another Rex Sinquefield PAC.  This puts her Sinquefield total funding around $1.6 million.


The MOScout Poll

With about six weeks before the primary the latest MOScout polling showed a shuffling of the gubernatorial race – though all are pretty tightly bound.  So it’s still anyone’s game.

Bev Randles has a tiny lead on Sen. Mike Parsons for lieutenant governor; Sen. Kurt Schaefer holds a seven point lead on Josh Hawley.  Both those races have huge undecideds.

And John “Jay” Ashcroft maintains a monumental lead on Sen. Will Kraus that seems too steep for Kraus to be able to overcome.


Lobbyist 1: Shows you what TV can do for name ID. Peter Kinder not up yet, so he will bounce…

Lobbyist 2: John Brunner may have taken the lead, but the news in the poll is the collapse of Kinder. Eric Greitens is the big gainer with +10…



In the large contributions (below), Pro Tem Ron Richard donated his Humphreys contribution ($100K) to the Senate’s campaign arm. Speaker Todd Richardson did a similar maneuver last week.


Interesting article in the Washington Post saying that Donald Trump’s bad poll numbers are because the election is “becoming a referendum” on him.  See it here.  That really seems to be the key to this election with two unpopular candidates.  Each one will try to make the election a referendum on the other one.


And here is the Washington Post contrasting the tax policies and economic growth of California and Kansas.  It’s no spoiler to mention that Kansas has not seen the gains promised by those who think tax cuts are so miraculous they can be made without some thinking.  Kansas – now with two consecutive quarters of negative growth – is considered to be in a recession.   See it here.


Today’s Events

From Mary Scruggs’ indispensable events calendar:

Sen. Eric Schmitt Golf – The Landings at Spirit– Chesterfield – 9AM

Rep. Kirk Mathews Golf – Legends Country Club – Eureka – 9AM

Rep. Denny Hoskins Golf – Pertle Springs – Warrensburg – 9:30AM

House 82 candidate Donna Baringer Happy Hour – The Mack, 4615 Macklind Ave., St. Louis – 5PM.


Lobbyists Registrations

Steven Tilley and Shawn Rigger added One3led.


$5K+ Contributions

Missouri Senate Campaign Committee - $100,000 from Committee to Elect Ron Richard.

Missouri Senate Campaign Committee - $25,000 from Wieland Now.

Scott Sifton for Missouri - $5,001 from Barry Aycock.

Central Missouri Senate Republican PAC - $10,000 from Committee to Elect Ron Richard.

Citizens for Stephen Webber - $10,000 from The Simon Law Firm PC.

Citizens for Stephen Webber - $10,000 from Simmons Hanly Conroy.

Greitens for Missouri - $5,001 from Sidney Grossman.

Russ Carnahan for Missouri - $50,000 from CHIP Political Account.

United Food & Commercial Workers Local #655 Elect Political Action Fund - $6,403 from UFCW Local 655.

With Robin Smith in 2016 Committee - $20,000 from Simmons Hanly Conroy.

Missourians for John Brunner - $15,000 from William Kuechler.

Hanaway for Governor Inc - $50,000 from Herzog Contracting Corp.

Hanaway for Governor Inc - $335,116 from Missourians for Excellence in Government.

Citizens for Stephen Webber - $10,000 from Strong, Garner, Bauer PC.

Citizens for Stephen Webber - $10,000 from Langdon & Emison LLC.



Happy birthdays to Sen. Eric Schmitt, and Capital Cork’s Jami Wade.