Monday, October 3, 2016

Walker Accuses Roberts of Sexual Assault

Friday night, Tony Messenger broke an explosive story of incoming Rep. Cora Walker accusing incoming Rep. Steven Roberts Jr of sexual assault.  See it here.

Pull Quote: Walker said the alleged assault took place either the evening of Aug. 26 or the early morning of Aug. 27 at an apartment in the city of St. Louis. She had gone there to meet Roberts to discuss how they might work together in the upcoming legislative session, Walker says. The two will be the only black lawyers in the Legislature.  Walker said she met Roberts at the apartment about 9:30 p.m. She woke up in a bed there the next morning. “I had no recollection of why I was still there,” she said. Walker said she had two glasses of wine and remembers nothing after the second glass….  Roberts’ attorney, Scott Rosenblum, said he was aware that an allegation had been made. “Whatever encounter occurred was completely consensual,” Rosenblum said. “I have viewed documentary evidence to support that.” 

Roberts is a former assistant prosecuting attorney in the office of Circuit Attorney Jennifer Joyce. He was fired from his position in October 2015. Earlier that year, he had been investigated but not charged for an alleged incident at a bar involving a female college student. Roberts denied any wrongdoing.

And

Walker has asked Speaker Todd Richardson not to seat Roberts until the investigation is completed.  See that letter here.  Richardson’s response: “The kind of conduct alleged cannot be tolerated in our state and will not be tolerated in the House of Representatives.  While the House has no jurisdiction over non-members, we will monitor the criminal investigation closely and continue to have a zero tolerance policy for sexual assault, misconduct and harassment.”

Meanwhile Minority Leader Jake Hummel’s statement attempted to nudge Roberts: “As the situation develops in the coming weeks, the accused must determine whether attempting to serve in the Missouri House of Representatives under these circumstances is in the best interests of himself, his family and his constituents.”

This is a National Story

Both Washington Post (see it here) and NY Daily News (see it here) ran stories.  More will be coming.

Also

Some folks I spoke to believe that Roberts will decide to withdraw from the general election. We’ll see.  If that happens then there’d be a special election for House 77.

 

MOScout Poll

The latest Missouri Scout poll of statewide showed Democrats making some gains.  See the poll hereChris Koster has built a double digit lead over Eric Greitens now.  I expect that the margin narrows from here as Greitens steps up his television buys.

A month ago, Koster only had a 4-point lead.  And within the cross-tabs it appears that women have been a key driver of Koster’s expanding margin.  A month ago he and Greitens split women evenly.  With this poll Koster opened a ten-point lead over Gretiens among women.

Russ Carnahan pull up to even with Mike Parson in the lieutenant governor’s race.  A month ago he stood at a three-point deficit.

Jay Ashcroft still leads Robin Smith with just a slight – inconsequential – contraction.  His lead is now five-point down from six points last month.

In the state treasurer’s race, Eric Schmitt’s nine-point lead from a month ago is now just four-points.

And Teresa Hensley was the only Democrat not to pick up ground.  Josh Hawley’s six-point lead from a month ago held.

Million Dollar Donors

The Democratic Governors Association and the Republican Governors Association each gave their respective candidates $1 million at the quarter deadline.

 

Galloway 2024?

Consider this beyond-the-horizon extrapolation…  Let’s say current polling holds.  It shows Chris Koster as the only Democratic statewide candidate winning, with Republicans sweeping the rest of the statewide ticket.

If that holds, it puts Nicole Galloway as the only statewide Democrat besides Koster.  She’d be in the position to be the leading Democratic candidate for governor in 2024 – if she survives her 2018 re-elect.

 

New Hawley Ad

Josh Hawley’s first general election ad doesn’t look like much of a pivot.  There’s a subtle reframing from constitutional conservative to constitutional attorney.  See it here.

And

One Republican, who says he’s not voting for Hawley, distrusts all the national money and the ambition of Hawley (and Greitens).  “The day after the election he’ll be running for U.S. Senate…”

 

New TV Contracts

Russ Carnahan is prepping to go up on the air.  See contract here.

And in House 47, Susan McClintic is buying TV.  See contract here.

 

Koster Gets Crossover $$$

Last week in the large contributions was a $5K check to Chris Koster from former GOP Sen. Marvin SingletonSee his bio here.

 

Desperately Seeking Algorithms

The Department of Social Services is seeking bids for Program Integrity Solutions.

From the request for proposals… The state agency is not identifying enough Medicaid fraud, waste, and abuse.  Too much time must be spent manually analyzing reports.  The reports may not have any outliers or anomalies or suspicious activity, but it takes state agency personnel to determine whether the outliers, anomalies, or suspicious activity exist or not.  Reports have to be opened and reviewed every month after the upload of claims data.  

The current FADS [Fraud Abuse and Detection System] system has no automatic fraud detection triggers or alerts… Existing algorithms run in the current FADS system are not showing a good return on the invested time and energy expended on analyzing the data.  False positives are common with the current system…  There is no risk-based scoring or reason codes to quickly shift personnel where the worst cases or riskiest activity is occurring…  There is no monitoring for abnormal activity of an individual Provider, unique to his or her own behavior.  The state agency’s current software does not learn the billing patterns or treatment patterns of each Provider nor does it self-calibrate with the Provider’s new transactions… There is no functionality to take the broad population of claims and uncover hidden patterns of fraud.  The current FADS software has no data mining engine using clustering, classification, and association techniques for pattern discovery.      

 

MEC Fines

The Missouri Ethics Commission fined Steve Pelton $2,300 for inaccurate reports. See it here.

They also fined Berry Parks $2,300 for inaccurate reports and not filing them on time.  See it here.

They also fined Dan Coffey $2,000 for not correctly reporting expenditures it made while fighting the earning tax vote in Kansas City.  See it here.

 

Bits

New Jersey increases their gas tax by 23 cents to pay for roads.  See it here.

 

Real Clear Politics is hosting a forum on Sunday (2PM at Clayton’s Ritz Carlton).  Post-Dispatch’s Christopher Ave, Public Radio’s Jo Mannies, ABC’s Jonathan Karl and Real Clear’s Sean Trende.  Speaker include Roy Temple, John Hancock, Congressman Lacy Clay and Congresswoman Vicky HartzlerSee it here.

 

Former Congressman Dick Gephardt is mentioned in a Politico piece about federal lawmakers turned lobbyists who represent foreign countries.  See it here.

 

eMailbag on PDMP Article

I didn't like seeing the PDMP Politico article referenced [last week].  The chief failure of the article is that it’s not a panacea, but it is a part of the solution.  While that’s mentioned, it’s not the gist of the story.  The reporter did a mediocre job. There’s a lot of empirical evidence that supports the notion that PDMPs are making a difference and are an important tool in the toolbox in the fight against prescription drug abuse… Linking the article to your site feeds into fear and will make it harder to pass a much needed PDMP in MO.

 

Today’s Events

Powered by Mary Scruggs’ indispensable events calendar:

Rep. Tim Remole Golf – Heritage Hills Golf Course – Moberly – 8:30AM.

 

$5K+ Contributions

Democratic Governors Association Missouri - $750,000 from Democratic Governors Association.

Democratic Governors Association Missouri - $250,000 from Democratic Governors Association.

Parson for Missouri - $10,000 from Friends of Todd Richardson.

MO Cattlemens Association PAC - $35,001 from Missouri Cattlemen’s Association.

Committee to Elect Gary Myers Judge - $14,000 from Sally Myers.

Property Casualty Insurers Association of America Political Account - $6,865 from Property Casualty Insurers Association of America.

Greitens for Missouri - $5,001 from Justin French.

Missouri Senate Campaign Committee - $10,000 from Citizens for Riddle.

Ashcroft for Missouri - $7,500 from Gerald Cook.

Missourians for Fair Taxation - $1,394,000 from Missouri Association of REALTORS.

Democratic Governors Association Missouri - $21,000 from Democratic Governors Association.

Teresa Hensley for Missouri - $25,000 from IBEW PAC Voluntary Fund.

SEIU Missouri State Council PAC - $105,000 from SEIU MO/KS State Council.

Smith for Missouri - $10,000 from CHIPP Political Account.

Missouri Senate Campaign Committee - $20,000 from Friends for Munzlinger.

Smith for Missouri - $5,085 from Clement Smith.

Scott Sifton for Missouri - $30,000 from Eastern Missouri Laborers’ Educational & Benevolent Fund.

Scott Sifton for Missouri - $16,370 from Missouri State Democratic Committee.

McDaniel for State Representative - $25,000 from David Humphreys.

Missouri Health Care Association PAC – Missouri Health Care Association - $45,325 from Missouri Health Care Association.

Schmitt for Missouri - $10,000 from International Association of Fire Fighters Local 42 Political Action Committee.

Greitens for Missouri - $25,000 from Gerald Cook Jr.

Greitens for Missouri - $50,000 from Digital Monitoring Products.

Greitens for Missouri - $50,000 from Jerry Cook.

Greitens for Missouri - $25,000 from Emerson’s Missouri Responsible Government Fund.

Greitens for Missouri - $10,000 from Ameren Missouri PAC.

Greitens for Missouri - $10,000 from David Hogan.

Greitens for Missouri - $10,000 from Brian Hogan.

Greitens for Missouri - $5,001 from Midwest Products Group Inc.

Greitens for Missouri - $15,000 from Kansas City Power & Light.

Greitens for Missouri - $750,000 from Republican Governors Association Missouri.

Schmitt for Missouri - $10,000 from Mark Gardner.

Citizens for Cystal Quade - $10,000 from Strong Garner Bauer.

Schmitt for Missouri - $10,000 from Rockwood Management Corporation.

Schmitt for Missouri - $10,000 from Anheuser Busch Companies.

Russ Carnahan for Missouri - $10,000 from MO NEA PAC.

Russ Carnahan for Missouri - $5,100 from U.A.W. Region 5 Midwest States PAC.

Russ Carnahan for Missouri - $20,000 from Eastern Missouri Laborers' Educational and Benevolent Fund.

Russ Carnahan for Missouri - $50,000 from Eastern Missouri Laborers' Educational and Benevolent Fund.

Russ Carnahan for Missouri - $25,000 from Missouri State Council of Machinist PAC.

Russ Carnahan for Missouri - $10,000 from Western MO and KS Laborers' District Council – PAC.

Citizens for Stephen Webber - $100,000 from CHIPP Political Account.

Koster for Missouri - $50,000 from Michael Ketchmark.

Koster for Missouri - $100,000 from LIUANA PAC.

Koster for Missouri - $50,000 from UA Political Education Committee.

Koster for Missouri - $11,000 from International Association of Fire Fighters Local 42 PAC.

Koster for Missouri - $10,000 from Maune Raichle Hertley French & Mudd LLC.

Koster for Missouri - $25,000 from Missouri State Council of Machinist PAC.

Koster for Missouri - $75,000 from SEIU Missouri State Council PAC.

Koster for Missouri - $50,000 from Communications Workers of America.

Citizens for a Safer Jackson County - $10,000 from International Association of Fire Fighters Local 42.

Greitens for Missouri - $10,000 from George H Walker III.

Greitens for Missouri - $5,500 from Laurie Cadieux.

Rizzo for Missouri - $25,000 from Carpenters Heal in the Political Process (CHIPP).

Citizens for Stephen Webber - $30,000 from Eastern Missouri Laborers' Educational and Benevolent Fund.

Republican Governors Association Missouri - $1,000,000 from Republican Governors Association.

Koster for Missouri - $99,000 from Missouri Democratic State Committee.

Koster for Missouri - $1,000,000 from Democratic Governors Association Missouri.

Friends of Saul - $25,000 from David Humphreys.

Scott Sifton for Missouri - $10,000 from Committee to Elect Jake Hummel.

Scott Sifton for Missouri - $16,711 from Missouri State Democratic Committee.

 

Birthdays

Happy birthdays to Sen. Maria Chappelle-Nadal, Rep. John Rizzo, Josh Foster and Zora Mulligan.