Monday, September 26, 2016

Post Dispatch Flip Flop Flips on Amendment 3

In a minute there is time / For decisions and revisions which a minute will reverse.

Is this any way to run an editorial board?

February 16, 2016, they’re in favor of RYH4K’s Amendment 3. (See it here).

April 24, 2016 they say they made a mistake and now they’re against it.  (See it here).

Now they’re back again saying they’re in favor of it.  (See it here).

It’s like they change their mind depending on who’s talked to them last.

With six weeks until Election Day, we might yet get one more opinion from the Post-Dispatch on this issue.  Stay tuned….

Veteran observer: I have never heard of a major newspaper being for something, then switching to be against (that's rare enough) and then reversing that stand. All in one election cycle.


MOScout Poll on IPs

This week we polled the ballot issues that voters will face in November.  See the full results here.

On Constitutional Amendment 1 – renewing the one-tenth of one percent sales/use tax for soil and water conservation and state parks and historic sites – voters approve by a wide margin 71% in favor and 16% opposed with 13% undecided.

On Constitutional Amendment 2 – campaign contribution limits – voters similarly approve.  There were 69% in favor; 16% against with 15% undecided.

The vote on Constitutional Amendment 3 – the RYH4K’s cigarette tax – is tighter.  Voters currently approve of the measure with 55% in favor; 39% opposed and 6% undecided.

Constitutional Amendment 4 – the “Taxpayer Protection” amendment which would prohibit any expansion in the sales tax – is the only issue right now that’s losing.  Only 21% are in favor; 53% are opposed and 26% are undecided.

And Constitutional Amendment 6 – the voter ID amendment – is favored by 59% of the voters; opposed by 36% and just 6% are undecided.

A few thoughts

First, of these five issues, only two of them showed any partisan splits.  The cigarette tax is viewed evenly by Republicans (47% in favor and 48% opposed) while heavily favored by Democrats (63% in favor and 33% opposed), and moderately favored by Independents (57% in favor and 35% opposed).  Perhaps this is symptom of Missouri Republicans general aversion to higher taxes regardless of the source of beneficiary.

And unsurprisingly, Voter ID also showed a partisan split.  Each party has used the issue in their own fundraising efforts.  81% of Republicans approve the measure while only 33% of Democrats do.  And 60% of Independents approve.  This issue also has the lower undecided vote of the issues polled this week.

Second, Amendment 4 looks like it’s in poor shape with only 21% approving.  One supporter says that their private polling has it in a stronger position.  But when it polled even worse the first time I looked at the issue months ago.  At that time, supporters told me the bad poll numbers were not a problem.  Resistance to the proposal starts high, they explain, and as voters are educated about the measure, they flip their position.  They plan to have plenty of money and resources to carry out the voter education.  If that’s true it will be a remarkable journey because I doubt any veteran has seen poll numbers start like this and end up with a successful vote on Election Day.


Over the weekend, the Republican State Committee passed a resolution in support of Amendment 4.


Baker Memo

A polling memo from Judy Baker’s camp says that Eric Schmitt is leading, but the game is afoot.  See it here.

From the memo: In a new poll released today by Baker for Missouri, conducted by GBA Strategies, shows the Missouri State Treasurer’s Race as an extremely tight race, with less than two months to go until Election Day, with Schmitt at 47 percent, Baker at 43 percent, within the margin of error of 4 percent.

While the presidential race will drive voter turnout, it is expected that the Missouri gubernatorial race will have a greater impact on the Treasurer’s race, and the number of ticket splitters revealed by this survey is very promising for Baker.

This race will come down to the ability of candidates for Missouri Treasurer to be heard in an extremely crowded political environment. The current strength of Chris Koster and Jason Kander, proves that Missouri voters are open to Democrats who can offer a compelling vision for the future that rejects the usual partisanship and gridlock of Missouri politics. Taking into account Baker’s opponent’s platform has a direct correlation to cut Missouri jobs and hurt Missouri businesses, should be clear indicators to voters that the only serious candidate for Missouri Treasurer is in Judy Baker.

Baker still has some room to grow within her base vote, but she already runs well ahead of Clinton among virtually every subgroup within the electorate.


Stenger Fundy

County Executive Steve Stenger held his 2nd annual fall fundraiser at Grant’s Farm on Friday night and brought in over $150K at the door as well as another six figures leading up to the event.  Stenger will report over $1 million cash on-hand after the 3rd quarter.  Nearly 700 attended, double the amount from a year ago.

Bold-names in attendance included:  Uber-lobbyists John Bardgett, Rodney Boyd and Lou Hamilton; labor leaders Pat White, Jeff Aboussie and John Stiffler; County Councilmen Pat Dolan, Sam Page and Mike O’Mara; Alderwomen Lyda Krewson and Donna Baringer; Rep. Deb Lavender; statewide candidates Russ Carnahan and Judy Baker; and business leader Tim Dorsey, Tom Minogue and Mead Summers.

Corporate sponsorships included AB, Centene, Express Scripts, Malinkrodt, Enterprise, Spire (Laclede Gas), Boeing, Emerson and Monsanto.

The highlight of the evening though was Stenger reliving his college days when he was lead singer in a band.  Stenger joined The Well Hungarians on stage for a set, cranking out some tunes from the 80s.


Erby Fundy

St. Louis County Councilwoman Hazel Erby, who recently announced she would be running for re-election in 2018, fundraiser Saturday.

In attendance: Democratic statewide candidates Chris Koster, Jason Kander, Russ Carnahan and Judy Baker. Also Baker’s primary Pat Contreras as well as Tim Person (on behalf of Dem AG candidate Teresa Hensley; Reps. Joe Adams, Rochelle Walton Gray and Sharon Pace; St. Ann Alderwoman Amy Poelker helping to make it somewhat bi-partisan as she’s the Republican candidate running against Sam Page; and Mayors Nathan Griffin of Wellston, Reggie Jones of Dellwood, James McGee of Vinita Park and Viola Murphy of Cool Valley.


Mosley Appeal Denied

Here’s the court order on Friday that ended Jay Mosley’s attempt to get Rep. Keith English kicked off the ballot in their state representative race.

Appellant has filed an appeal from a judgment entered on September 15, 2016 denying his petition challenging the qualification of respondent to seek office. Appellant filed the notice of appeal on September 16, 2016 with the circuit court, along with a motion to expedite the appeal. Appellant requested that this Court expedite the appeal and issue an opinion no later than September 23, 2016. The Circuit Clerk mailed the notice of appeal to this Court on Tuesday, September 20, 2016 which was received in this Court on Thursday, September 22, 2016. The motion to expedite was brought to the undersigned's attention at 3:30 p.m. on September 23, 2016. Appellant's motion to expedite appeal and issue an opinion by September 23, 2016 is denied. It was incumbent on appellant when he filed the notice of appeal in the circuit court to impress upon the Circuit Clerk of St. Louis County the urgency of the matter so that the clerk could immediately transmit the notice of appeal to this Court by fax or e-mail. By the time this Court became aware of the matter, it was too late to grant the relief requested in the motion. Moreover, the Court notes that no record or briefs have been filed and hence there is nothing on which to rely to decide the appeal.


DSCC: Life’s Been Good to Roy Blunt

The DSCC hits the Washington insider theme in their latest anti-Roy Blunt ad.  See it here.


Greitens No Respect from Brunner?

The tweet that sent Twitter a-twitter on Friday… John Brunner @JohnBrunnerMO: My friend Peter cares about Missouri. The only opponent that earned my respect and admiration…

See it here.



In the large contributions, I did my sums and came up with $380K into the Democratic Attorneys General Association Missouri from various corporate donors.  Presumably that money is headed to Teresa Hensley’s campaign.


Humphreys Contra Rizzo

Also in the large contributions, David Humphreys plunked $50K into the Republican Senate’s campaign committee that appears designated to keep Rep. John Rizzo from getting a completely free pass in moving to the Senate.  I think Rizzo’s a safe bet and this is money down the drain, but we’ll see…


From the in-box: Why doesn’t Humphreys just take RTW to the ballot?/ Am I missing something?

Anyone out there in MOScout land able to give this reader a good answer to that question…


Enterprise Out of ALEC

Post-Dispatch reports that Enterprise has dropped its ALEC membership.  See it here.  Pull Quote: Enterprise, based in Clayton, is the world's largest car-rental company. Bryant said the company joined ALEC to fight against state and local taxes on rental cars, "and had little if any engagement with the organization beyond that."


Presidential Debate Tonight

Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump will debate on national television tonight.  But the Washington Post says that “Trump is not proving to be the dramatic drag on down-ballot candidates that Republicans once feared.”  See it here.  The Kander-Blunt race gets a mention.


$5K+ Contributions

Citizens for Stephen Webber - $10,000 from Jake Hummel Campaign Fund.

Parson for Missouri - $200,000 from RSLC Missouri PAC.

RSLC Missouri PAC - $200,000 from Republican State Leadership Committee.

Friends of Mark Ellebracht - $15,000 from CHIPP Political Account.

Koster for Missouri - $10,000 from Zimmerman Tax Credit Exchange Fund LLC.

Ashcroft for Missouri - $10,000 from Gary Grewe.

Property Casualty Insurers Association of America Political Account - $5,247 from Property Casualty Insurers Association of America.

Greitens for Missouri - $10,000 from Chesterfield Grove Market LLC.

Greitens for Missouri - $5,001 from Sam Coryell.

Emerson’s Missouri Responsible Government Fund - $50,000 from Emerson Electric Co.

Koster for Missouri - $10,000 from Ameren Missouri PAC.

Koster for Missouri - $25,000 from Ameren Missouri.

Committee to Elect Ron Richard - $15,000 from David and Thelma Steward.

Vote Yes on 3 for Kids - $1,769,520 from RAI Services Company.

Campaign for Children, Youth, and Families - $10,000 from Hallmark Corporation.

Citizens for Stephen Webber - $10,000 from Missouri State Teachers Association.

Citizens for Stephen Webber - $20,000 from L.I.U.N.A Local 110.

Hawley for Missouri - $5,001 from Pfizer Inc.

Democratic Attorneys General Association Missouri – $10,000 from LegalShield.

Democratic Attorneys General Association Missouri – $10,000 from Kaplan Fox & Kilsheimer LLP.

Democratic Attorneys General Association Missouri – $15,000 from American Fuel & Petrochemical Manufacturers.

Democratic Attorneys General Association Missouri – $15,000 from Lieff, Cabraser, Heimann & Bernstein, LLP.

Democratic Attorneys General Association Missouri – $15,000 from Barrack, Rodos & Bacine.

Democratic Attorneys General Association Missouri – $15,000 from Property Casualty Insurers Association of America.

Democratic Attorneys General Association Missouri – $15,000 from Argentum Silver PAC.

Democratic Attorneys General Association Missouri – $25,000 from Sunovision.

Democratic Attorneys General Association Missouri – $25,000 from Altria Client Services LLC.

Democratic Attorneys General Association Missouri – $25,000 from Relix Inc.

Democratic Attorneys General Association Missouri – $25,000 from UPS PAC.

Democratic Attorneys General Association Missouri – $25,000 from Aflac Inc.

Democratic Attorneys General Association Missouri – $50,000 from AAJ PAC.

Democratic Attorneys General Association Missouri – $50,000 from Visa.

Democratic Attorneys General Association Missouri – $60,000 from Comcast Financial Agency Corporation.

Baker for Missouri - $6,500 from James Nutter Sr.

Parson for Missouri - $10,000 from Reece and Nichols Golden Key Realty.

Citizens for Steve Stenger - $10,000 from Rockwood Management Corporation.

Citizens for Steve Stenger - $27,500 from Robert Glarner.

Citizens for Steve Stenger - $27,500 from David Glarner.

Kansas City Missouri Republican Senate PAC - $50,000 from David Humphreys.

Missouri Senate Campaign Committee - $50,000 from Citizesn for Schatz.

Ashcroft for Missouri - $10,000 from Roy Pfautch.



Happy birthdays to Reps. Lauren Arthur, Justin Hill and Penny Hubbard, former Sen. Michael Reid, and former Rep. Walt Bivins.