Thursday, August 11, 2016

Looking at the IP Signature Numbers

A look at the numbers of signatures submitted by the various initiative petition efforts yields a few conclusions.

First, there seems to be a rule of thumb for collecting signatures in Missouri to avoid CD 4 (Hartzler) and CD 8 (Smith).  None of the campaign attempted to reach the threshold amount in those districts; they all focused on the other six districts.

Second, of the remaining district, CD 5 (Cleaver) is clearly the hardest. Less than one-third of the signatures submitted from CD 5 were considered valid by the SOS.  All campaigns struggled with their validity rate in CD 5, and they must have realized this because they all over-collected in that district by a wide margin.  The most successful was the contribution limits campaign which had a 37% valid rate on their CD 5 signatures.  Both tobacco campaigns and the marijuana campaign were all under 30%.

For comparison here are the average validity rates for the other districts:  CD 1 (56%), CD 2 (78%), CD 3 (84%), CD 6 (81%), CD 7 (72%).

One observer hypothesizes that CD 5 is so much harder because “you have the people coming over from Kansas and vice versa and also after redistricting, that district is sort of jacked up…”

Third, looking at the expenses in the campaign finance reports, and making back of envelope calculations offered a ballpark guess at how much campaign spent per signature.

It appears that the medical marijuana were able to enlist a huge volunteer effort.  Their cost per valid signature was under $2.  This compares to $5/signature for the convenience stores’ cigarette tax and the contribution limits IP, $8/signature for the realtors’ IP, and $10/signature for RYH4K’s cigarette tax.  Of course with marijuana missing their target in one district, the savings of using volunteers may end up not being worth it.

Finally, the marijuana campaign needs to find an additional 2,242 valid signatures among their submitted signatures in CD 2 to reverse the SOS’s non-certification.  Their validity rate in CD 2 was the lowest among the campaigns at 73.86%.  Finding the necessary extra signatures would life their rate to 79.36% which is a tough lift, but it’s still below the contribution limits validity (82.96%) rate and the RYH4K validity rate (79.81%) in CD 2.  So it’s definitely possible.

We’ll see…


Two Tobacco Increases?

This may be an unimportant question since voters have rejected all tobacco tax increases in the past, but two reporters look at what would happen if both the constitutional initiative petition (Raise Your Hands), and statutory initiative petition (convenience stores) pass in November.

KC Star’s Jason Hancock writes, “If both the early childhood and transportation tobacco tax increases are passed by the voters, both would go into effect. Missourians rejected tobacco tax increases in 2002, 2006 and 2012….”  See it here.

But the mighty Jason Rosenbaum writes that, “a spokeswoman for Kander said if both initiatives pass, it would be up to the courts to decide which one would go into effect…”  See it here.

Who’s right?  Well, maybe both?  They would both go into effect, and then surely lawyers for cigarette companies would start litigation, at which point who knows where it would end up…



It’s unclear if this is the campaign website for the convenience stores’ statutory tax increase proposal, or if it was just a placeholder campaign that’s been abandoned.

It’s called Improve MO Roads – because the revenue would go to roads.  See the website here; the Facebook page here; and Twitter account (with one tweet and one follower) here.


Republican Governors Association

In the large contributions (below), the Republican Governors Association added $1 million to their Missouri account.  They’d previously put in $500K.  Clearly, they’re revving up for the big November battle.


Kander Blunt Ads

Here a rundown of US Senate ads.

Jason Kander introductory ad… “Streets of Afghanistan” (See it here).  It highlights his service in Afghanistan and willingness “to sacrifice for his country” as opposed to politicians in Washington who “only care about themselves.”

Here is the joint Kander / Democratic Senate Campaign Committee ad… “Question” (See it here).  It casts Blunt as a Washington fixture whose career is “working great ” for him. It cites his pay increases, cost of his house ($1.6 million) and his family all employed as lobbyists.

Roy Blunt’s latest ad… “Right Direction” (See it here).  It ties Kander to Hillary Clinton, saying they’re supporting the “same failed policies holding America back.”  It makes Kander the incumbent in so much as he supports the policies of the incumbent president.  Yes, it hits him on Obamacare.


Kander for USTR?

Politico mentioned Jason Kander as a possible U.S. Trade Representative if he should lose and Clinton would win.  See it here.

Pull Quote:  Union officials who could hold the key to putting Hillary Clinton in the White House want her to break the mold for the job of U.S. trade representative by choosing someone more concerned about strengthening American manufacturing than negotiating new trade deals… If past practice holds, it could be more than a month after the election before either Clinton or Trump announce their pick for USTR, as the new president focuses first on filling the higher-profile positions of secretaries of state, defense, treasury and commerce…. That’s because filling a Cabinet is often a balancing act between finding the most qualified individual and other factors, such as rewarding supporters, ensuring diversity and sometimes even finding a spot for a fellow politician suddenly out of a job… A slew of Democratic Senate candidates might need a job if their election bids fail, Reinsch said. They include Reps. Loretta Sanchez in California, Patrick Murphy in Florida and Ann Kirkpatrick in Arizona, New Hampshire Gov. Maggie Hassan, Missouri Secretary of State Jason Kander, former Nevada Attorney General Catherine Cortez Masto and Katie McGinty, a former chief of staff for Pennsylvania Gov. Tom Wolf.


Follow-Up on Delta Outage

One MOScout reader points out… Delta issue was not a power outage. They reversed their statement after Georgia Power stated there was no power outage to any customers in the Delta HQ. Delta then stated the problem was on their end with their computer systems not with a loss of power from their utility.  See it here.


DEA To Expand Marijuana Research?

Washington Post reports that the Drug Enforcement Administration will make only minor changes to marijuana policy today.  See it here.

Pull Quote: The agency will announce one policy change that could increase the amount of research conducted on marijuana, the officials said. The DEA will expand the number of places allowed to grow marijuana for studies of its value in chronic pain relief, as a treatment for epilepsy and other purposes. Currently, only the University of Mississippi,which holds an exclusive contract with the National Institute on Drug Abuse, is federally licensed to grow marijuana for research purposes.

One MOScout reader asks: “Will Mizzou go to pot?”


Endorsent Watch

Chris Koster announced the endorsement of the MNEA (Missouri National Education Association), and the Missouri Soybean Association said they’d be making their gubernatorial endorsement tomorrow.  We’ll see if they follow the Farm Bureau and Corn Association in endorsing the Democrat.


Today’s Events

From Mary Scruggs’ indispensable events calendar:

Rep. Craig Redmon Golf – Norwood Golf Course – Hannibal – 9AM.

Missouri State Fair begins.


$5K+ Contributions

Baker for Missouri - $10,000 from UFCW Local 655 Elect Political Fund.

Republican Governors Association Missouri - $1,000,000 from Republican Governors Association.

Ashcroft for Missouri - $10,000 from Drury Development Corporation.

Citizens to Elect Jamilah Nasheed - $7,500 from Allelodyne LLC.

Parson for Missouri - $10,000 from William Danforth.

Lewis & Clark Ozarks Mountain Forum - $15,000 from James Penn.

Lewis & Clark Ozarks Mountain Forum - $15,000 from Peter Herschend.

Russ Carnahan for Missouri - $10,000 from UFCW Local 655 Elect Political Fund.