Tuesday, March 22, 2016

Trumphobia

Could Donald Trump as presidential candidate sink Roy Blunt?  That’s the trust of an article in the Kansas City Star.  See it here.

Pull Quote:  A few months ago, it looked as if Republican Sen. Roy Blunt would have an easy time winning a second term.  But the combination of a viable Democratic challenger and a chaotic presidential primary that’s poised to put Donald Trump at the top of the GOP ticket could make Missouri’s U.S. Senate race more competitive than anyone had thought.

This year’s wildly unpredictable presidential election has created the possibility that Blunt will have to have to distance himself from his party’s standard bearer in order to defeat Democrat Jason Kander, say longtime Missouri political observers…. Still, Blunt, 66, has clear advantages in incumbency, fundraising and name recognition…

Could his candidacy put Congress into Democratic hands?  See a Politico article on that here.

Pull Quote:  Donald Trump is on the verge of two things once thought to be impossible: winning the Republican presidential nomination, and putting Republicans’ historically large House majority in danger. Democrats have for the past year discussed the GOP’s 30-seat majority as a long-term problem, solvable only by shrinking it over several successive elections. But Trump’s remarkable rise in the GOP presidential race, and the backlash he has already provoked among the broader electorate, has suddenly raised the prospect of a large November wave against Trump and the Republicans who would share the ballot with him.  The House GOP’s leading indicators — its most vulnerable members, like Reps. Bob Dold and Carlos Curbelo — are already sounding the alarm against Trump and his rhetoric on women, Hispanics and other groups. The party’s outside groups are preparing an intensified fundraising push to help defend the chamber. The respected Cook Political Report downgraded Republicans’ chances in 10 districts Friday. And though the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, which has been stung by overzealous predictions in past years, won’t say outright that the majority is in play, the party is clearly thinking about it.

Koster Fundraises Off Trump

From: Chris Koster <info@chriskoster.com>

Sent: Monday, March 21

Subject: Donald Trump is dangerous

Extremism, hatred and bigotry are not Missouri values.

Yet every single Republican candidate for Governor has pledged to stand with Donald Trump if he is their party's nominee this fall.

Their acceptance of Trump's extremism and unpreparedness to the presidency is dangerous for our country.

Together, Missouri will turn back Donald Trump -- and Missouri will turn back every so-called leader who signs on to Trump's reckless agenda.

Stand with me today to help stop Donald Trump….

Thank You,

Chris Koster

View From The Lincoln Days Circuit

From a Republican reader: There are 75 counties in Missouri that have Lincoln Day dinners or some variation thereof.  This is an annual fundraiser for the local GOP to help support local candidates, campaign headquarters, etc.

It’s also a “rite of passage” of sorts for statewide candidates. Easter weekend is a rest from the events, but there are 13 banquets scheduled for the next weekend. Candidates either attend or send surrogates. With five or more occurring at the same time, stand-ins often represent the candidates, if local organizers will allow it.

Most candidates are making the rounds. After the last MOScout poll showing Eric Greitens wasn't gaining traction, he started attending the events as well. His reception has been a bit chilly as most organizers are grasstops leaders that are wary of him as a Democrat-turned-Republican.

John Ashcroft is also keynoting many of the banquets, which doesn’t seem to have helped his son in straw polls.  Sen. Will Kraus seems to have a lead amongst party organizers.  John is even making fundraising calls for his son, but Ashcroft has half the campaign war-chest of his Republican rival. However, the last name will obviously carry a lot of weight on Election Day.

Sen. Dan Brown has been seen at very few events, perhaps showing he will not be the type of candidate that does a lot of traveling through the primary season.

After next weekend, only fifteen County Lincoln Days will remain. And candidates will return to a focus on fundraising and direct voter contact as the primary date begins to close in on us all.

New Candidate Filings

Jim Acton filed to run in House 51 as a Democrat.  He’ll face Republican incumbent Rep. Dean Dohrman.

Jim Cain filed to run in House 71 as a Republican.  The incumbent is Democratic Rep. Sue Meredith.  Cain ran against Meredith last cycle taking 40% of the vote.  See a bio of Cain here.

Steve Butz filed to run in House 81 as a Democrat.  He joins the favorite, former alderman Fred Wessels.  There is no Republican filed so far.  The current incumbent, Minority Leader Jake Hummel, is termed.  Butz appears to be an insurance agent – who coincidentally looks like he lives a few doors down from Hummel.

Travis Maupin filed to run in House 124 as a Democrat.  But on Facebook Maupin writes, “There was a clerical error. I will not be running for district 124. I will be running for district 58. This consist of Laurie, Versailles, and a few others. Tomorrow I head back to Jeff City to have this fixed.”  House 58 is where there’s a three-way Republican primary, including incumbent Rep. David Wood.

Nate Branscom filed to run as a Democrat in House 131.  The current incumbent is Republican Rep. Sonya Murray Anderson.

Angela Pryor filed to run as a Democrat in House 134. The current incumbent in Republican Rep. Elijah Hahhr.  See Pryor’s twitter account here.  She is a member of the City of Springfield’s Citizens Advisory Committee for Community Development.

Bits

Governor Jay Nixon appointed County Circuit Judge Colleen Dolan to the Missouri Court of Appeals, Eastern District.  Dolan fills the vacancy on the appellate court created by the appointment of the Patricia Cohen as a federal magistrate judge.

Strong sales tax and solid individual income tax receipts have a good looking monthly revenue picture – so far this month.  With a week left, we’ll see if it holds up.  These numbers can be volatile.

FanDuel and DraftKings have continued to add to their lobbying team here in Missouri.  They’ve been under pressure elsewhere.  They “stopped taking bets in New York on Monday as part of an agreement with the state attorney general’s office, which had accused them of illegal gambling…” See a NYTimes article here.

In House 80, the International Association of Firefighters Local 73 endorsed Peter Merideth.  He’s running to succeed Rep. Mike Colona.

St. Louis Post-Dispatch has an article on the potential legislative gremlin that the population drop in St. Louis County could mean.  See it here.  I wrote a week or two ago about Rep. Caleb Jones’ fix for this.  It’s HB 2258.

Today’s Events

Powered by Mary Scruggs’ indispensable events calendar:

Rep. Deb Lavender – Reception with Chris Koster – Kirkwood, MO – 5:30PM.

Pat Contreras – La Fonda Taqueria, Kansas City – 5:30PM

Lobbyists Registrations

Camille Kerr added Amgen.

Daniel Pfeifer, Gregory Porter, Rebecca Lohmann and Alex Eaton added Cheyenne International LLC.

Scott Penman added Netchoice.

Jim Morris added Act Aspire LLC.

$5K+ Contributions

Missourians for Peter Kinder - $5,001 from Innovation Homes LLC.

Campaign for Clean Water STL - $90,000 from Mallinckrodt Pharmaceuticals.

Campaign for Clean Water STL - $25,000 from Anheuser Busch Companies.

Ashcroft for Missouri - $10,000 from Cape Radiology Group.

Koster for Missouri – Festus Manor LLC.

Committee to Elect Judge Grant Gorman - $7,500 from Grant Gorman.

Professional Firefighters of Central St. Louis County PAC - $5,500 from Webster Groves Firefighters.

Birthdays

Happy birthdays to Sen. Will Kraus, former Sens. Paul LeVota and Yvonne Wilson, former Rep. Steve Hunter, Sylvester Brown Jr., Nancy Giddens, and David Jackson.