Tuesday, October 18, 2016

October Quarters

Find an Excel spreadsheet with the October quarters here.  It has every contested House, Senate and statewide race numbers for contributions, expenditures, cash on-hand and debt.  At this point concerns the usual horserace questions (about how well someone is raising money or what their burn rate is) go out the window and it’s really about how much cash they have left to use toward voter contact in the final weeks.

Governor: the numbers are inconsequential because they’re so huge.  Eric Greitens recently received $4M from the National Governors Association, and Chris Koster has been on the air heavily for weeks.  They both have enough resources to get their message out.

Meanwhile Lester Turilli raised about $40K; spent about $40K and has $1,427 on-hand.

Lieutenant Governor: maybe inconsequential for the opposite reason.  Although Sen. Mike Parson with $500K on-hand is more than double Russ Carnahan’s $200K on-hand, does it really matter.  Using that money on TV probably gets lost in the flood, though both are apparently doing TV.

Treasurer: Eric Schmitt’s $2.5M on-hand is substantial enough to make a real difference against Judy Baker’s $300K cash on-hand.

Secretary of State: Jay Ashcroft has a little under $400K; and Robin Smith has about $350K.  They’re essentially even on cash on-hand, but Ashcroft did spend money in this primary and presumably enters the race with higher name ID.  Ashcroft has led MOScout polls.  But without much firepower, neither side of this is in command of their destiny.

Attorney General: Josh Hawley has quickly reloaded.  He has $4.3 M on-hand.  Teresa Hensley has also done a good job fundraising but hasn’t been able to keep pace.  She has $1.1M.


Senate Races

There’s nothing in the numbers to suggest any surprise in the Senate race.

Senate 1 – Scott Sifton has a strong cash advantage over Randy Jotte ($990K to $113K).

Senate 11 – Brent Lasater only has $867 on-hand versus JJ Rizzo’s $75K.

Senate 15 – Democrat Steven Eagleton filed a Limited Activity report.

Senate 17 – Democrat Ranen Bechthold has a little over $1K on-hand versus Ryan Silvey’s $571K.

Senate 19 – Caleb Rowden’s $392K cash on-hand is about half Stephen Webber’s $849K stash, but of course the Republican Senate campaign committee will be helping Rowden here as they will be helping Jotte in Senate 1.

(The Missouri Senate Campaign Committee has $483,439 on-hand, and their Central Missouri Senate Republican PAC has $338,508 on-hand.)



In House 68 incumbent Independent Rep. Keith English raised $14,850; spent $22,158 and has $42,721 on-hand with $50,100 in debt.  His Democratic challenger Jay Mosley raised $740 and has $1,001 on-hand. Those numbers bode well for the incumbent…

Speaker Todd Richardson raised $136,200 and has $326,070 on-hand.

The House Republican Campaign Committee is sitting on $1.1M which will probably all be used up in the next three weeks.  Watch out Dem House candidates, here comes the onslaught!

And Missouri Club for Growth has $107K on-hand as we enter the final month.


Other Filings of Note

New Approach Missouri which worked on marijuana reform raised $137K; spent $155K; and has $1,503 on-hand.  Oh and $500,825 in debt… It would appear about those owned are the core operatives: Ketcher Law Firm, Tightline Strategies R.L. Winters (fundraising), Winning Mark (digital).

Grow Missouri, the Rex Sinquefield committee started in 2013 to champion tax cuts (and rent a blimp), looks like it’s being wound down.  No new contributions came in, it sent $4K to various Republican House members and finished with just $46 on-hand.

Auditor Nicole Galloway (up for re-election in 2018) raised $31,550 and has $126,693 on-hand.

Justin Brown, son of Sen. Dan Brown, has a campaign committee to run for his father’s senate seat in 2018.  Last quarter he raised $2,500 from his dad’s Brown for Treasurer committee.  This quarter he didn’t raise any money, but he spent $1,109 for “Market Animal Purchase” at the Phelps County Fair.  He now has $1,368 on-hand.

Term-limited Rep. Eric Burlison will have two years off before he runs for Senate 20 (Sen. Jay Wasson’s seat).  He has $170,646 on-hand.

Ken McClure running in next spring’s Springfield mayor race raised $22,055; spent $242 and has $23,133 on-hand.


STL County

County Executive Steve Stenger started building his war-chest in earnest.  It’s the best way to deter a primary challenge like he waged against Charlie Dooley.  Stenger raised $351,175 and now has $1.1M on-hand with $410K in debt.

Ernie Trakas reported $9,995 raised; $3,464 spent; and $36,212 on-hand.  Trakas is running for St. Louis County Council as a Republican in District 6.  See a precious MOScout post about his race against former Rep. Pat Yaeger here.  Yaeger raised $29,385; spent $22,874 and has $47,834 on-hand.


STL Mayor Cash On-Hand

Gregg Daly - $99,884 (in mayoral committee, and another $528,149 in an old committee).

Sam Dotson – started after deadline.

Antonio French - $32

Lyda Krewson - $403,689

Tishaura Jones - $101,434

Jamilah Nasheed - $280,424

Lewis Reed - $226,760

And Other Possibles

Jeffrey Boyd - $47,852

Darlene Green – $214,052


Leftover Stashes

Former Rep. Don Gosen still has $60,521 sitting in his campaign account.

After her unsuccessful re-election bid, Rep. Bonnaye Mims has $36,494 on-hand.

Former Sen. Joe Keaveny has $173,687 on-hand.

Francis Slay’s “Slay Committee” still has $860K on-hand.

Wayne Goode’s “Goode Fund” has $59,709 on-hand.

Term limited Sen. Maria Chappelle-Nadal has $63,186 on-hand.  She’s never been shy to use her campaign cash to influence other races.

Former Sen. Brian Nieves still has $51,636 on-hand.



Sen. Kurt Schaefer’s campaign committee reports $515K on-hand with debt of $544K.  It looks like he never did use that loan he gave himself early on.  And considering the race wasn’t close at the end, maybe that was a pretty good call.

John Brunner’s campaign is still carrying $4M in debt form the loan he gave himself.  Might have to write that one off….

But Peter Kinder’s campaign debt is a much more manageable $17K.


Missouri Gets Some Prez Action?

I saw a Donald Trump commercial on TV last night, and news yesterday (see it here) was that the Hillary Clinton campaign was tossing $500K into Missouri to help with Get Out the Vote efforts.


Brunner Lawsuit

For those interested in the Michael Goguen lawsuit against John Brunner… according to Casenet, Brunner’s lawyers served Eric Greitens and his campaign treasurer Jeff Stuermans with subpoenas, and yesterday their lawyers filed a motion to “quash” the subpoenas…


McGaugh on Engagement

Subject:      Caucus Engagement – (Confidential--FOR CAUCUS ONLY)

From:         "Joe Don McGaugh" <mcgaughlaw@gmail.com>

*Engagement – (We Win Every Vote, Every Day!)*

  1. I want to give every caucus member the opportunity to contribute to caucus priorities, direction, and legislative actions—*but we must also come out the victors on every issue!*
  2. We cannot function properly as a majority if our members are not on the same page at all times, or at least in possession of the same critical information.

a.) While disagreements are inevitable: members should be able to respectfully disagree and not feel as though their opinion has not been heard by the caucus and especially leadership. *I propose our caucus meetings continue to be opportunities to engage in thoughtful family debate--not wasted political theater.*

b.) I believe that the best way for our entire caucus to be engaged in the legislative process goes back to *communication— *by having a unified, message-driven agenda. Without communication among the caucus, from freshman to seniors, members are not engaged and working together, but continuing towards different directions and goals. We must remain united as Republicans and work for our shared principals and goals. If we are not able to effectively send our message back to our constituencies, and let them know that we are working for them, then we have failed. *I propose we use the talents of the most effective communicators, marketers and team builders in our caucus to create, promote and drive out our message. *

c.) With our current system of term-limits, we lose invaluable institutional knowledge every two years. We need to ensure that this knowledge is not lost and that we are passing it on to incoming caucus members. *I propose we institute a mentor system for all incoming new members.*


Draft Alderman Boyd?

Doug Rasmussen writes on Twitter…‏@MightyDougie: I'd like to see @jeffreyboyd run for Mayor of St. Louis. He was spot on when saying STL can only be as strong as its weakest neighborhood.

Jeffrey Boyd replies ‏@jeffreyboyd: Is St Louis ready.......


Today’s Events

Powered by Mary Scruggs’ indispensable events calendar:

Women for Greitens – Bissinger's Chocolate Factory – St. Louis – 11AM.

Sen. Scott Sifton – Genesis, 2651 Telegraph Rd. – St. Louis – 5:30PM.


Lobbyists Registrations

Randy Scherr added Enel Green Power North America, and Rock Creek Wind Project LLC.

Leslie Korte added Judicial Conference of Missouri, and Supreme Court of Missouri.

Guy Black added Mallinckrodt Pharmaceuticals.


$5K+ Contributions

Koster for Missouri - $55,680 from Missouri Democratic State Committee.

Koster for Missouri - $75,000 from American Federation of Teachers COPE.

Lavender for State Rep - $10,000 from HSLF PAC.

Seniors Count Campaign Committee - $10,000 from St Andrews Management Services.

MADA Dealers Interested in Government - $8,000 from MADA Services Corporation.

Berg for Change - $10,000 from UFCW Local 655 Elect Political Fund.

Koster for Missouri - $100,000 from UAW V CAP.

Koster for Missouri - $100,000 from UAW V CAP.

MO Republican Party - $10,000 from Committee to Elect Randy Jotte.

MO Republican Paryt - $75,000 from Greitens for Missouri.

Parson for Missouri - $60,000 from Forrest and Charlotte Lucas.

Parson for Missouri - $10,000 from Mark Gardner.

Missouri Democratic State Committee - $25,000 from Scott Sifton for Missouri.

Missourians for Mike Cierpiot - $15,000 from Republican State Committee.

Greitens for Missouri - $10,000 from Michael Dullea.

Greitens for Missouri - $2,500,000 from Republican Governors Association Missouri.

UAW Region 5 PAC - $150,000 from UAW V CAP

Hawley for Missouri - $10,000 from David Steward.

Friends of Todd Richardson - $15,000 from Crossland Construction Company Inc.

STL Votes! - $266,671 from Great St. Louis Inc.

Committee to Elect Randy Jotte - $10,300 from Missouri Senate Campaign Committee.

Right to Vote - $50,000 from SEIU Missouri/Kansas State Council.

Friends of Caleb Rowden - $22900 from Missouri Senate Campaign Committee.

Missourians for Byron DeLear - $5,852 from Missouri State Democratic Committee.

Teresa Hensley for Missouri - $25,000 from United Auto Workers Voluntary Community Action Program.



Happy birthdays to Jim Talent and Ray McCarty.