Tuesday, September 6, 2016

MOScout Poll

The MOScout Weekly Poll resumed last weekend.  See the full results here.  The poll had 1,275 respondents for a +/- 3% margin of error.

TOP LINES President

Donald Trump: 46%

Hillary Clinton: 37%

Gary Johnson: 8%

Jill Stein: 3%

Undecided: 6%


Roy Blunt: 47%

Jason Kander: 40%

Jonathan Dine: 4%

Fred Ryman: 2%

Undecided: 7%


Chris Koster: 46%

Eric Greitens: 42%

Cisse Spragins: 4%

Lester Turilli: 1%

Undecided: 7%

Lieutenant Governor

Mike Parson: 44%

Russ Carnahan: 41%

Steven Hedrick: 6%

Undecided: 9%

Secretary of State

John (Jay) Ashcroft: 46%

Robin Smith: 41%

Chris Morrill: 6%

Undecided: 8%

State Treasurer

Eric Schmitt: 45%

Judy Baker: 36%

Sean O’Toole: 8%

Undecided: 11%

Attorney General

Josh Hawley: 47%

Teresa Hensley: 41%

Undecided: 12%

Thoughts on Poll

Interesting to see what looks like a Republican tide.  It’s Chris Koster as the lone Democrat swimming against that current.  He’s the only Democrat in this statewide poll who holds a lead.

One might look at this poll and think that Republicans could nominate any buffoon and the political polarization and hatred for Hillary Clinton in Missouri is so prevalent that there’d be no drag from the top of the ticket.  In fact, Donald Trump now leads Clinton by 9 points, more than most other candidates.

And as with the last poll I did on these races a month ago, there’s very few undecideds.

Also it’s interesting to see that Les Turilli – whose billboards we’ve seen on I-70 for over a year – only garners 1%.


Rumorville: Med Mary Comeback Coming?

The rumor is that the pro-marijuana reform forces have found what they believe to be 3,000 more valid signatures in Congressional District 2.  Look for them to make the case this week that they deserve to be certified for the November ballot.


New House 78 Election?

Post Dispatch reports that Judge Rex Burlison ordered a new election in House 78 where incumbent Rep. Penny Hubbard won a squeaker election powered by high absentee ballots.

See it here.

Pull Quote: The new election is scheduled for Sept. 16, but Hubbard’s attorney, Jane Dueker, said the decision will be appealed.

Nixon to Shake Up City Board of Elections?

Post-Dispatch reporter Ashley Jost tweeted an advisory from Governor Jay Nixon’s press office saying that he’d be in St. Louis today to make an announcement about the city’s board of elections.  See it here.

Three of the four members of the board are beyond the term of their appointment. (See the board here.)  So likely Nixon swoops in and appoints three new members who will then constitute the majority and be able to make operating changes as necessary and avoid a prolonged embarrassment from the Hubbard election controversy.


Kalmer to Stenger

Emily Kalmer deregistered from her job lobbying for the State Auditor.  Kalmer is said to be headed back to St. Louis where she will work for County Executive Steve Stenger.


Vescovo Trial Set

Robert Butler’s lawsuit to disqualify Rep. Rob Vescovo’s candidacy because of a delinquent taxes has a trial date set for September 15 at 9AM in the Dent County Courthouse in Salem, MO.  The presiding judge will be Kelly Parker.


Silvey Appeals Challenge

On Friday, Sen. Ryan Silvey appealed the ruling Judge Janet Sutton to allow his Democratic opponent, Ranen Bechthold to stay on the ballot in Senate 17.  Silvey is contesting whether Bechthold meets the residency requirement.  The case heads to the Western District.


On Bechthold’s latest campaign report, his wife, Jamie Walkinshaw, makes an appearance under the expenditures, earning $867 as a “campaign worker.”  I think a lot of wives might just have volunteered for the campaign…


On the Air

In Senate 1, Sen. Scott Sifton is starting to reserve his air time.  See a contract here.  I haven’t seen one for his Republican opponent, Randy Jotte, yet.

And the pro-RYH4K early childhood cigarette tax folks have started buying their air time also.  See a contract here.  I have yet to see anything from “little tobacco.”


Senate 15: 30 Days After Reports

Both candidates were late in reporting their 30 Day After the Primary campaign reports. Rep. Andrew Koenig filed his Friday and showed that he has $49,554 left in the bank.

His Democratic opponent, Stephen Eagleton, has not filed a report – or any report – yet.


Arrows Left in the Quiver?

A look at the 30 Day After reports from two folks I hadn’t expected to lose didn’t yield too many clues.

St. Louis County Assessor Jake Zimmerman had a huge cash on-hand lead against his primary opponent in the 8 Day Before reports.  Zimmerman had $764K on-hand (after spending $536K on media buys) while Teresa Hensley only had $44K on-hand (after $190K media buy).

Zimmerman’s 30 Day After report showed an additional; $368K spent on media buys (versus an additional $170K of media buys by Hensely).

In that last report, Zimmerman also repaid his $200K loan to the campaign, and finished with another $186K in bank.

Would that extra $386K have made the difference in the primary?

It seems that he spent plenty on media already to get the job done.


In House 31, Rep. Shelia Solon was upset by Dan Stacy.  One observer credits Stacey’s hustle at the doors plus the infusion of Humphreys cash ($25K) and third party ads with the upset.  But Solon ended with $50K in the bank, a sign that Stacy’s late charge may have taken her by surprise.


Meanwhile, Speaking of a Full Quiver

The current mayor, Francis Slay, who’s not running for re-election, and has not offered any hints about his future, has $903,729 on-hand.  His campaign committee says it’s for a 2020 statewide race.


Revenues Down

August state tax receipts were lower than they were last year.  This weakness is something to keep an eye on.  Individual income tax collections, which usually drive revenues, increased 5.4% compared to August 2015.  But that growth was offset by a decline in sales and use tax, and an increase in refunds.  See the press release here.



One attendee at the memorial service for Sen. Ed Quick relates that former Sen. Pro Tem Jim Mathewson “took a shot at the current senate, “we used to go to dinner a lot… and we never had to find a lobbyist to pay for it.”


According to LinkedIn, David Poger – who last year made news in the capitol – has a new job.  He’s a “networking senior sales specialist, enterprise solutions - converged infrastructure at Dell.”


A PAC, Total Legalization Missouri, was formed.  Its treasurer is Kristine Berney, and the deputy treasurer is Charles Jones.


Governing Magazine looks at the various initiatives to reform marijuana laws across the country.  See it here“Marijuana legalization is having a moment. What once seemed like an unlikely proposition is now catching serious steam. To date, 25 states and the District of Columbia have legalized medical marijuana, while Alaska, Colorado, Oregon, Washington state and D.C., have legalized recreational use of the drug…”   They do not mention Missouri.


Bayer sweetened its bid for Monsanto to $127.50/share.  We’ll see….



Schlafly Passes

The press release: Phyllis Schlafly passed away in the presence of her family at her home in St. Louis, Missouri.

A iconi America leade whose love for America was surpassed only by her love of God and her famil, Phyllis Schlafly, an ndomitable pro-family grassroots advocate and organizer, was 2 years old.  rs. Schlafly was preceded in death by her beloved husband Fred an is survived by six children ong with 16 grand and reat grandchildren....


Some eyebrows were raised that Ed Martin’s email blast about her passing concluded with a plug for a media appearance he’s doing.

PS: I am writing this on an airplane headed for New York City.  I am going to be on Fox & Friends tomorrow morning to launch the book Phyllis and I and Brett Decker wrote: The Conservative Case for Donald Trump. Bittersweet that tomorrow is the launch date of our book but Phyllis wants us to keep pushing and fighting.  Tune in if you can.


Today’s Events

Powered by Mary Scruggs’ indispensable events calendar:

Springfield Mike Pence Town Hall – Springfield Expo Center - 10:30AM.

St. Louis Mike Pence Town Hall – Doubletree Chesterfield – 1:30PM.


Changes in Lobbyist Registrations

Mark Farnen added Kelly Enterprise Inc.

Phillip Scaglia deleted Starship Technologies, Ou.

Michael Steelman deleted The Associated Students Of The University Of Missouri.

Emily Kalmer deleted Missouri State Auditor.


$5K+ Contributions

MO Petroleum Marketers + Convenience Store Assoc PAC - $150,000 from Cheyenne International LLC.

Missourians for Fair Taxation - $150,000 from Missouri Association of REALTORS.

Greitens for Missouri - $10,000 from Connie and John Johnson.

Missouri Freedom PAC - $1,000,000 from Republican Attorneys General Association. Greitens for Missouri - $5,001 from Sidney Grossman.

Friends of Todd Richardson - $10,000 from Pyramid Home Health.

Property Casualty Insurers Association of America Political Account - $13,503 from Property Casualty Insurers Association of America.

Russ Carnahan - $10,000 from William H Danforth.

Citizens for Kevin Corlew - $15,000 from CHIPP Political Account.

Hawley for Missouri - $1,000,000 from Missouri Freedom PAC.

Friends of Rob Vescovo - $5,001 from American Boiler and Mechanical Inc.



Happy birthdays to Sam Murphey, and Sarah Wood Martin.