Wednesday, July 20, 2016

MOScout Primary Predictions

Find my primary predictions for every statewide, House and Senate race here.

The most impossible race to guess is this four-way Republican gubernatorial race where each candidate appears to have a path to win.

There’s a real possibility that Eric Greitens will win.  He’s raised the most money, and really only John Brunner has focused serious criticism of his lack of an ideological core.   It wouldn’t surprise me if he sneaks in a win.

Brunner has a similar profile; polling has shown him in the hunt the whole way, plus he’s obviously dedicating enough resources to try to get the job.

Catherine Hanaway is the dark horse.  I find her dual messaging of “mom” and “tough guy” confusing.  But maybe it hits the suburban Republican demographic well and I just don’t get it.

And then there’s Peter Kinder.  His “Mudslinging” ad might be the best of the cycle.  I’m picking Kinder because I think the wary primary voters (or at least 29% of them) end up feeling conflicted and not entirely sold and end up with the one they know is a conservative.

I guess we’ll see…..


I’ve updated the primary guides with new fundraising information, and a few other touch-ups.

See the Republican House Primary Guide here.

See the Democratic House Primary Guide here.

See the Republican Senate Primary Guide here.

See the Democratic Senate Primary Guide here.


Randles in CLE?

From this picture on her twitter feed it sure looks like Bev Randles is in Cleveland attending the Republican Nation Convention.  One surprised politico observes: Definitely the only statewide candidate in Ohio when the Missouri primary is two weeks away…


Brunner Adds $1 Million to His War-Chest

Faced with the escalating price to keep playing this hand of poker John Brunner called, and pushed in his $1 million, after Peter Kinder and Eric Greitens both showed huge new infusion earlier this week.

Two questions for my readers to ponder or answer… First, are we at, approaching or past the point of diminishing returns where spending the next million doesn’t move the needle because there’s not much difference between saturation and oversaturation?

Second, is it possible to run out of reasonable TV spots to buy?


LG PAC Attacks Hanaway

One of this cycle’s mysterious anonymous PACs, the LG PAC, is now attacking Catherine HanawayEric Greitens was their first target.

In two new 15 second ads, LG PAC hits Hanaway for opposing conceal and carry in one, and for supporting tax subsidies for a new baseball stadium in the other.

MOScout reader: Her numbers must be getting better…


See the new Hanaway ad here.  She’s driving the car talking about the need to protect Missouri from the dangerous Syrian refugees and how she’ll be a “tough conservative governor.”


Senate 23: Zerr Goes Negative on Eigel

In the Republican primary in Senate 23, Rep. Anne Zerr has a pair of negative ads hitting her main rival, Bill Eigel.

In one new attack ad, the narrator intones: “Bill Eigel is in the pocket of big donors.  60% of his campaign funds comes from just two donors…”

The other new attack also focuses on his donors: “Why is politician Bill Eigel being bankrolled by supporters of common core and a sales tax?...”


Missing July Reports

Post-Dispatch reports on Rep. Courtney Curtis’    See it here.

Pull Quote:  The lack of reports come after Curtis chaired high profile hearings in April blasting St. Louis County elections officials for problems that arose during the spring elections. Curtis, a member of the Legislature since 2012, also hasn't filed a detailed report of his campaign finances since 2014.  Records show Curtis did receive $50,000 on June 2 from top executives at Tamko Construction, a Springfield-based building products manufacturer owned by Republican donor David Humphreys.  But, records showing how Curtis has spent that money heading toward the primary have not been filed by the candidate. He did not return a phone message Tuesday.

As you’d expect, after the Post article, Curtis did file his July report.


Rep. Alan Green, in House 67, hasn’t filed his July report yet either. But I can’t even find a campaign committee for his opponent Sheila Thompson….


The Peerless One Speaks

The peerless John Combest linked to a US News and World Report article yesterday, but he didn’t tell us that that he was quoted at the end of the article.  See it here.


eMailbag on Why Hedge-Funders Give to Greatens

They may also want to manage the multi-billion dollar state pension funds….


eMailbag on Dem AG Race

I watched the Teresa Hensley ad and it was solid. The only problem is that more people linked to it from MOScout than will ever see it on TV.  How does she expect to win a statewide primary with $288k? Jake Zimmerman has $1 million more dollars than her!  With every campaign purchasing TV these last few weeks, $288k may buy a few points.  It won't come close to breaking the static.  To put it in perspective, Stephen Webber has $784k in the bank for a state senate race with no primary!...


Today’s Events

From Mary Scruggs’ indispensable events calendar:

Sen. Will Kraus Reception – Axiom Strategies, 1251 NW Briarcliff – KC – 5:30PM.

Sen. Mike Parson Cardinals Game – STL – 7:15PM.

Missouri Chamber Environmental & Energy Conference – Lodge of Four Season.


Lobbyists Registrations

Aaron Shaw added Boehringer Ingelheim Pharmaceuticals Inc.


$5K+ Contributions

Central Bancompany PAC - $10,000 from The Central Trust Bank.

Friends of Hannah Kelly - $7,748 from Missouri REALTORS Political Action Committee.

United Union of Roofers Waterproofers & Allied Workers Political Education & Legislative Fund of MO - $20,000 from United Union of Roofers, Waterproofers, & Allied Workers PEL Fund.

Missourians for John Brunner - $1,000,000 from John G Brunner.

Citizens to Elect Mike Kohoe - $7,500 from Blue Cross & Blue Shield of KC PAC.

Grow Missouri - $380,672 from Missourians for Excellence in Government.



Happy birthdays to former Sen. Brad Lager, and Dick Fleming.