Wednesday, July 27, 2016

Poll: Hanaway Leads Gubby Race?

Springfield News Leader reports that OnMessage Inc produced a poll showing Catherine Hanaway in the lead.  It’s from July 17 (that’s a long ten days ago).  See it here.

Pull Quote: OnMessage does not represent any of the gubernatorial candidates, but is working for Josh Hawley, a Republican running for attorney general. The poll, of 500 likely GOP primary voters, was taken July 17-18.

Hanaway led the pack but just barely, with 25 percent of respondents saying they support her. John Brunner, the millionaire businessman from St. Louis, won 23 percent; Eric Greitens, the former Navy SEAL and political neophyte, came in at 21 percent; and Lt. Gov. Peter Kinder snagged 19 percent.

“It’s basically ... a four-way tie,” said Wes Anderson, who conducted the poll for OnMessage. The margin of error is plus or minus 4.38 percent.


Greitens’ team touted a SurveyUSA poll (same one as below) showing them in the lead with 25%, followed by Brunner with 21%, and Hanaway and Kinder both at 18%.


Poll: Parson Leads Randles?

KSDK reports that a SurveyUSA poll from last week shows Sen. Mike Parson leading the Republican lieutenant governor primary. See it here.

Pull Quote: In a survey of likely voters, with a margin of error of 3.6 percent, former Polk County sheriff and state senator Mike Parson leads his well-financed opponent Bev Randles from Kansas City by more than 10 points at 37% and 26% respectively.


Randles Poll: Randles Leads Parson?

The Bev Randles campaign release their own internal poll showing it neck and neck still with huge (45%) undecided.

The Tarrance Group is pleased to present Missourians for Randles with the findings from a telephone survey of N=500 “likely” Republican primary voters. A random sample of  this  type  is  likely  to  yield  a margin  of  error  of +4.5%  in  95  out  of  100  cases. Twenty-nine percent (29%) of the responses were completed on a cell phone. Responses were gathered July 23-25, 2016. With a week to go in the primary, the race for Lieutenant Governor is still too close to call between the top two contenders.  Bev Randles is currently getting 26% of the vote, with a 1-point lead over Mike Parson who is at 25%. A.C. Dienoff is a distant 3rd with only 4% of the vote and 45% of the vote is still undecided.


Senate 23 Bits

Working America filed a series of reports (for examples, see one here, and another here) detailed their spending in Senate 23 in support of Rep. Anne Zerr.

And Mike Carter’s video of getting dissed by Bill Eigel appears to be going viral.  See it here.


Zimmerman Ads

Here are a pair of new Jake Zimmerman ads.  They’re both 15 second spots, and they follow the case he’s been building with his television commercials, that he will fight for fairness.  The first one is called Bull, and the second is Reformer in which he says he was disgusted when he saw lobbyists buy “thousand-dollar dinners” in Jefferson City.


Latest Hawley Ad

Here’s the latest Josh Hawley ad.  Once again it uses video of Sen. Kurt Schaefer to undermine his message of being a conservative.  See it here.


Curtis’ Odd Expense

Spotted by a tipster: On Rep. Courtney Curtis’ 8-Day Report… a $1,646 expense to Western Union in Kingdom City for a “wire transfer.”

Tipster: For a guy who is own treasurer and who has struggled to file his reports on time, this seems real odd…


Missourians for Life Follow-Up

A few days ago I wrote about an odd organization popping up in literature in some St. Louis area GOP House races.  Missourians for Life was giving candidates their “exclusive” endorsement.  West St. Louis County political observer John Hoffmann wrote that finding no trace of “Missourians for Life” at the secretary of state’s website or even on the world wide web itself, the group was maybe just a fake front organization.

Missourians for Life does indeed exist.  It’s a political action committee. See its paperwork here. Its treasurer is Bradley Harmon.  Harmon was fined $41,000 by the Missouri Ethics Commission last year for violations concerning a committee, Missourians Against Unfair Taxes, for which he was treasurer.

I counted eight political action committees for which Harmon is the treasurer.  All use the same PO Box in St. Charles as their address.

The favorite vendor for those committees seems to be Tom Smith’s Survey Saint Louis.  For example Harmon committees Missouri Leader Fund, St. Charles County Regional Leadership Fund, Missourians for Better Healthcare, Missourians for Quality Education, St. Charles Organization of Republicans, as well as Missourians Against Unfair Taxes, and Missourians for Life have all paid Survey St. Louis during the past two years.

And it’s interesting that the two candidates that Hoffmann mentions as getting the exclusive Missourians for Life endorsement haven’t received any money from MO for Life, but they both have used Survey St. Louis as well.  Jean Evans used them for sign and flyers; and Bruce DeGroot used them for printing.


Breaking Down Gubby Dollars

John Brunner raised $3,028,108 from 1,011 individuals for an average contribution of $2,995.   $2,914,590 (96.25%) has come from 920 Missouri individuals.

Eric Greitens raised $8,660,243 from 1,451 individuals for an average contribution of $5,968.

$2,642,394 (30.51%) has come from 965 Missouri individuals.

Catherine Hanaway raised $4,423,094 from 1,393 individuals for an average contribution of $3,175.

$4,261,553(96.34%) has come from 1,267 Missouri individuals.

Peter Kinder raised $2,588,221 from 1,087 individuals for an average contribution of $2,381.

$1,713,275 (66.19%) has come from 1,008 Missouri individuals.


What a Circus

So… Michael Goguen is suing John Brunner for defamation.  See it here.  Who is Goguen?  He’s a Silicon Vallier who gave $1 million to Eric Greitens’ campaign and has a really ugly lawsuit pending against him.

See an article about the allegations against Goguen here. Pull Quote: In Baptiste’s complaint, she is described as a “victim of human trafficking since she was 15.” It says that she was “brought to America in 2001,” “sold as a dancer to a strip club,” and that shortly after her arrival, she met Goguen at a Texas strip club and was soon submitting to his “constant sexual abuse” and “relying on his promise that he would help her break free of the human traffickers who held her in perpetual debt.”  Continues the complaint, “Unbeknownst to Ms. Baptiste, Mr. Goguen was a worse predator than the human traffickers who were keeping her in bondage.”  Some of the accusations against Goguen — with whom Baptiste had a sexual relationship for 12 years and across his three former marriages, says the complaint — are highly graphic.

At the end of a gubernatorial debate, Brunner referred to Goguen as a “sex slave owner.”  Brunner didn’t mention Goguen’s name, and obviously putting “sex slave owner” and Greitens together in a headline isn’t exactly helpful to his candidate a week before the election, but nevermind to all that.  Here we are with Goguen suing Brunner for defamation.

The Post-Dispatch put the lawsuit up.  See it here.  In it Goguen tells his side of the story which includes quotes from some of her love letters… “I could never even make love to you enough times to show you how special you are to me” and “I miss you dearly.  I miss your touch on my body.  When you make love to me I am portaled away to some far off place of delight.”


HB150 Stuck Down

Rep. Scott Fitzpatrick’s HB 150 (see it here) was struck down.  The bill put a limit on how long a Missourians could receive workers compensation based on the unemployment rate.  The Supreme Court said that the legislature must vote to override a veto if it occurs more than five days before the end of session.  In this case they waited until veto session.  See the opinion here.

Lobbyist: This opinion is remarkable.  The "liberal" members of the court ruled in favor of a strict interpretation of the constitution and the "conservative" members argued for powers not expressly granted.  The Republicans will be rightly incensed by this activist court.It almost feels like they are messing with the General Assembly….


Hummel to Richardson: Come On Guys, Just Follow the Law

Minority Leader Jake Hummel and Assistant Minority Leader Gail McCann Beatty sent a second letter to Speaker Todd Richardson asking him to have Rep. Ron Hicks follow the law and resign following his public admission that he’s no longer meeting the constitutional requirements of the office.

As disturbing as Rep. Hicks’ open and flagrant violation of the Missouri Constitution is, the apparent complicity of House Republican leadership in allowing him to illegally continue holding office casts a pall of illegitimacy over the entire House of Representatives.

In the time since you became speaker more than a year ago after your predecessor resigned in disgrace, you have made great efforts to improve the standards for ethical and honorable behavior in the House. Each day Rep. Hicks unlawfully remains in office undermines your hard work to restore trust in state government… We do not believe Rep. Hicks has been motivated by ill-intent, and we take no joy in calling for his removal from office. But for the good of the institution, we simply can’t set the precedent for House members to openly flout the constitution without fear of facing the harsh consequences that it imposes….


More Legal Wrangling in Cig Tax IP

Little Tobacco filed two suits to prevent the Raise Your Hand initiative petition from being put on the ballot.  One – see it here – says that since the ballot title is now different than when RY4H collected signatures, the signatures should be invalid.  The second – see it here – offers a host of objections.

And so it goes on….


Governing Mag on Rural Hospitals

Governing Magazine has a piece on the crisis facing rural hospitals. See it here. Pull Quote: They may be the only places that provide health care for a hundred miles, and they may be the main source of local livelihoods. But rural hospitals are very much an endangered species. Nearly 30 percent of the nation’s 2,000 or so rural hospitals are likely to close in the next two years.


Today’s Events

From Mary Scruggs’ indispensable events calendar:

July 27-29 – ALEC Annual Mtg. – Indianapolis, IN.


Lobbyists Registrations

Mark Schwartz and Christopher Moody added Cornerstones of Care.

Tom Draper added Missouri Department of Conservation.

Scott Marrs added Truven Health Analytics.


$5K+ Contributions

Missouri Democratic State Committee - $15,000 from Monsanto Company.

Koster for Missouri - $112,560 from Jobs and Opportunity.

Koster for Missouri - $10,000 from Gregory Wendt.

Citizens to Elect Kimberly Gardner - $24,548 from Safety and Justice Committee.

Koster for Missouri - $10,000 from Mark Kelley.

MO Republican Party - $10,000 from Ford Motor Company.

People for Lester Turilli Jr. - $10,000 from Lester Turilli.

Parson for Missouri - $10,000 from Starline.

Hanaway for Governor Inc - $7,000 from D John Sauer.

Greitens for Missouri - $10,000 from Howard and Marilyn Wood.

Daniels for Judge - $10,000 from Deborah Daniels.

Koster for Missouri - $20,000 from Smithfield Foods Inc.

Hanaway for Governor Inc - $250,000 from Grow Missouri.

Greitens for Missouri - $5,001 from Ed Kniep.

Greitens for Missouri - $5,001 from Kathy Holman.



Happy birthdays to Congressman Lacy Clay, Shanon Hawk, Crystal Brinkley, and former Rep. Jim Avery.