Wednesday, July 6, 2016

New Greitens Ad

Here we go again… the latest Eric Greitens ad, shows him working out in a boxing gym.  That’s the whole ad.  See it here.  The tag-line: “When it comes to fighting corruption, they’ll never know what hit them…”

The Question

What I assume we’ll find out in the next four weeks is: can Greitens take a punch?  One imagines that his rivals will finally do an outright hit on him… his opposition to SJR 39?  His waffling on stem cell research?  His road trip with Bob Holden to Barack Obama’s inaugural?

We’ll see….

Oh Also – The Other Question

For the good government folks, there is also the question of whether a Greitens administration would be a train wreck.

In addition to no political experience or policy expertise, he appears to have no platform or plan for governing except a pledge to root out some ill-defined “corruption” in Jefferson City.

What does a Greitens administration actually look like?  Early morning workouts for sure.  But beyond that….


Kraus Goes After Ashcroft

Sen. Will Kraus unleashed a biting attack on John “Jay” Ashcroft saying that he’s not made of the same timber as his father, raising questions about his time in a service academy, noting his varied careers, and his bomb of a political stunt with the voter ID initiative petition.

The most recent MOScout polling showed Kraus trailing badly; he clearly needs to go on the offensive, but this – see it on his Facebook page here – is a web ad.  He needs to sharpen this, and send it over the TV airwaves to stand any chance.

Question: Does he have the money to do that?

Answer: Not enough –without a new Rex Sinquefield infusion.


$5K+ Totals July Quarter

Here are the statewide candidates’ large contribution tallies from the latest quarter, followed by their previous cash on-hand totals.


John Brunner - $1.2 million; $3.2 million.

Eric Greitens - $812,921; $4.1 million.

Catherine Hanaway - $1.6 million; $1.6 million.

Peter Kinder - $550,000; $625K.

Chris Koster - $2.5 million; $7.4 million.


Lieutenant Governor

Mike Parson - $10K; $1 million.

Bev Randles - $750K; $616K.

Russ Carnahan - $98K; $172K.

Tommy Pierson - $0K; $11K.


Secretary of State

John Ashcroft - $145K; $531K.

Will Kraus - $10K; $723K.

Robin Smith - $85K; $95K.


Attorney General

Josh Hawley - $822K; $1.1 million.

Kurt Schaefer - $525K; $2 million.

Teresa Hensley - $25K; $284K.

Jake Zimmerman - $56K; $1.3 million.



Eric Schmitt - $48K; $2.6 million.

Judy Baker - $0K; $118K.

Pat Contreras - $57K; $108K.


Note: Both Catherine Hanaway and Kurt Schaefer received substantial contributions ($800-900K) from Rex Sinquefield after the July deadline.


Koster’s Advantage

Nothing makes Chris Koster’s advantage clearer than the invite arriving in the in-box yesterday for a Koster fundy hosted by Jane and David Sweeney, John Hall and Michael Tompkins.  It’s scheduled for… August 4… That’s two days after the primary election.

While the conventional wisdom (which I believe to be true) is that the eventual Republican nominee with be able to quickly “reload” thanks to the Republican Governors Association and Missouri’s no-limits laws, the advantage is bigger than money.  Koster has been positioning himself for the general election since Day One, while his possible opponents are all veering to the right.


Throwing Trump Under the Bus

The highly respected Stuart Rothenberg writes in the Washington Post of Republicans “throwing Trump under the bus” to preserve their majority.  See it here.  What I found most interesting, though, was that our Missouri Kander-Blunt race wasn’t mentioned as Rothenberg ran through some battlegrounds.

Pull Quote: Longtime Republican strategists and campaign consultants privately acknowledge they are so certain of Hillary Clinton’s victory — and so worried about its impact on Senate races and GOP control of the chamber — that they are already considering a controversial tactic that explicitly acknowledges Donald Trump’s defeat.

The tactic, used by congressional Republicans two decades ago, late in the 1996 campaign, involves running television ads that urge voters to elect a Republican Congress so Clinton won’t have “a blank check” as president.

“The advice to candidates to stress the ‘blank check’ argument is being offered [by field workers from the National Republican Congressional Committee] to Republican candidates who are running below 50 percent in their own polling,” wrote Adam Clymer of the New York Times in late October 1996.



Who is Norman Harty giving Peter Kinder $25K?  According to the MEC report he’s self-employed as a “Dynamite-Explosive Cleaner.”  Ok then….


NYTimes reports that Blackberry’s product line continues to evolve.  See it here.  I am referenced – though unnamed – in the last paragraph as one of the remaining “die-hards.”


Help Wanted

Organization for Black Struggle seeks Executive Director.  “We seek an experienced and dynamic executive leader who, in partnership with members, board and staff, will be prepared to carry forward and build on OBS’s 30-year history of multi-issue organizing for black liberation within St. Louis, Missouri.” See the ad here.


Today’s Events

From Mary Scruggs’ indispensable events calendar:

Rep. Rocky Miller Golf – Old Kinderhook Golf Course – Camdenton.


Lobbyists Registrations

Megan Shckelford added Centrex Strategies.

Zachary Brunnert added Bethesda Health Group, and Konica Minolta.

Timothy Arbeiter added Lee's Summit Chamber Of Commerce; and deleted Cape Girardeau Area Chamber Of Commerce.

Travis Brown added Great St. Louis; and deleted American Academy Of Dermatology Association, Heyltex, Missouri Society Of Anesthesiologists, and Missouri Society Of Interventional Pain Physicians.

Kevin Rome deleted Lincoln University.

Heather Lockard deleted Missouri Association for Community Action.

Michael Edmondson deleted Missouri Care (aka Wellcare Healthplans Inc).

Nimrod Chapel deleted Mid Amer Const Management LLC.


$5K+ Contributions

Missouri Democratic State Committee - $39,437 from UAW V-CAP.

Protect our Neighborhoods Committee - $10,000 from Country Club Plaza.

Lewis & Clark Ozarks Mountain Forum - $25,000 from Gerald Cook.

Missourians for Peter Kinder - $25,000 from Norman Harty

Greitens for Missouri - $10,000 from Sabin Metal Corporation.

Greitens for Missouri - $10,000 from Creekside Developers LLC.

David Cort for Missouri - $6,500 from David Cort.

Citizens for Mary Pat Carl - $5,650 from Split Media.

Missourians for Peter Kinder - $5,100 from Frank Kinder.



Happy birthdays to Susan Montee and Elizabeth Dumm.