Wednesday, June 15, 2016

Kinder Gets Another Talk Show Endorsement

Radio host Dana Loesch, known in St. Louis Tea Party circles, endorsed Peter Kinder yesterday.  Listen to it here.

Randles TV Ad

The total opposite of Eric Greitens’ first ad, Bev Randles first ad out-of-the-gate does nothing to stand out.  See it here.  She looks into the camera, says she’s an outsider, a proven conservative and ticks off her issues.

Hawley TV Ad

Josh Hawley released his first television ad.  See it here.  He’s standing among ladders with people climbing them, and says he’s not trying to climb from one office to another.  No, he’s a constitutional who “fought Obama at the Supreme Court and won” Twice!  And – get ready for the buzzwords – he’s also an outsider and a conservative.

Barnes to Hawley: You Even Practice Law Bro?

Rep. Jay Barnes does a take-down of Josh Hawley on his blog. See it here.

Pull Quote: You claim to have argued the Hobby Lobby case in front of the Supreme Court. The public record reflects otherwise: you sat in the gallery, not at counsel’s table. Missourians understand that candidates often exaggerate, so they’ll probably forgive it...  However, I have heard rumors about your experience far worse than puffery about Supreme Court cases. It is alleged that you have never served as counsel of record in an actual Missouri courtroom where you had the responsibility of representing a person, business, or any other entity. I figure this cannot possibly be true… This being the Show-Me State, there’s a very simple way to dispel these rumors that you are not qualified for the office: simply name some cases for which you are listed as counsel of record in Missouri. I eagerly await your response.

Better Together, or All Hang Separately?

Better Together issued what may be its final report: The Will to Change.  See it here.

Pull Quote: For over two years, Better Together has studied the impact of the structure and function of the St. Louis region consisting of the City of St. Louis, St. Louis County, 90 independent municipalities within St. Louis County, 43 fire districts, 57 police departments, 81 municipal courts, and the more than 52,000 pages of ordinances that govern the 1.3 million citizens that call it home. Better Together’s studies have revealed that fragmentation has resulted in three core negative byproducts:

1. A system focused on internal competition over regional growth;
2. A disparity in services and the allocation of resources that results from fragmentation and internal competition;
3. An inability to formulate and execute a vision for regional success

One would expect the think-tank mode to now morph into an action mode with some specific policy proposals and ensuing political campaign to implement them.

Gun Money

In the aftermath of the Orlando tragedy, one wonders whether the political calculus surrounding guns has shifted at all in Missouri.  The conventional wisdom would be No, but we’ll see….

Post-Dispatch writes that Senator Roy Blunt was a top recipient of NRA money.  See it here.

Trump Effect

Governing Magazine wonders what history tells us about the impact of “insurgent” candidates on down-ballot races.  See it here.

Pull Quote:  During a May 5 rally in Charleston, W.Va., Donald Trump said something no one was expecting. He told the audience not to bother showing up to the polls in the following week’s primary. "What I want you to do is save your vote -- you know, you don't have to vote anymore,” Trump told the crowd. “Save your vote for the general election, OK? Forget this one. The primary is gone."  It was an emblematic moment for Trump’s candidacy -- and one that illuminates a pattern set by many of his predecessors who have run insurgent presidential campaigns. Far more often than not, such candidacies are focused on advancing the presidential ambitions of the candidate, with little attention to the nitty-gritty of building a political network of down-ballot officeholders. This is true even when doing so could help advance their agenda.

And

Nate Silver tweeting on Trump… ‏@NateSilver538: Trump, by all appearances, learns by rote rather than being an abstract thinker, and I think he learned some bad habits in the primaries.

In a 17-way primary, Trump's ability to dominate every news cycle paid dividends. With just 2 candidates, not as helpful, can be harmful.

In the primaries, Trump just had to hold on to his plurality and keep opponents off-balance. Now? He's behind & base isn't big enough.

Speaker Money

Where will the old speaker money go?  Altogether it’s about $1.5 million.  Will it help out HRCC?  Some favorite candidates in the next couple of months?

John Diehl’s old war-chest still hovers around $200K according to the last reporting (October 2015) before his Limited Activity reports.

Tim Jones’ Missourians for Tim Jones now has $495,204.  (It continues to pay a $2K/month annuity to former staffer Tom Smith’s Survey St. Louis for “financial reporting fee.”

And his spun off Leadership for America had $214K on-hand.  That’s $200K from the original Missourians for Tim Jones, plus $14K from “interest.”  Pretty savvy investing to make 7% in this interest rate environment….

Finally there’s Steve Tilley’s MO Majority PAC LLC.  It was subject of a Post-Dispatch article recently.  It has $549,839 on-hand.

Finally

St. Louis Business Journal reports that Noranda is seeking a buyer for its Missouri smelter.  See it here.

And

If you have an extra five minutes, a big picture rambling by Lawrence Summers.  See it here.  I am reluctantly coming to the conclusion that the United States may be on a slow-motion trajectory towards a Japanese chronic lowflationary or even deflationary outcome. A corollary of this view is that the current hawkish inclination of the Fed, with its chronic hope and belief that conditions will soon permit interest rate increases, is misguided. The greater danger is of too little rather than too much demand. A new Fed paradigm is therefore in order.

Today’s Events

From Mary Scruggs’ indispensable events calendar:

Sen. Kurt Schaefer Golf – Old Hawthorne Country Club – Columbia – 12:30PM.

Rep. Cloria Brown Tribute to Veterans – Royale Orleans Banquet Ctr. – St. Louis City – 5:30PM.

Lobbyists Registrations

Bill Gamble, Jorgen Schlemeier, Cynthia Gamble, Sarah Topp, and Jeffery Brooks added Primary Marking System, Inc., Missouri Society Of Anesthesiologists, Renovate America Inc., and Missouri Ambulatory Surgery Center Association.

David Jackson added Special School District of St. Louis County, The Kraft Heinz Company, Gentiva Health Services, Missouri Workforce Housing Association, LKQ Corporation, Missouri Residential Care Association, Missouri Collectors Association, Stowers Institute For Medical Research, Preferred Family Healthcare, Ameren Missouri, Missouri Pharmacy Association, Missouri Beverage Association, Missouri College Of Emergency Physicians, Missouri Dental Association, Missouri Fire Service Alliance, Missouri Hotel And Lodging Association, Missouri Sheriffs Association, American Tort Reform Association, American Resort Development Association, Coalition Of Service Providers Of St. Charles County, Air Evac Lifeteam, TelaDoc, Missouri Railroad Association, and True Care Pharmacy.

$5K+ Contributions

MO Insurance Coalition PAC - $10,000 from FEAPAC of Missouri.

Greitens for Missouri - $100,000 from Steven Sarracino.

Lewis & Clark Ozark Mountain Forum - $15,000 from Neal Ethridge.

The Committee to Elect Steve Butz - $10,300 from Crawford-Butz Insurance Agency.

Koster for Missouri - $100,000 from Western Missouri and Kansas Laborers’ District Council PAC.

Koster for Missouri - $50,000 from UFCW Local Number 88.

Teamsters Local 955 Political Action Fund - $25,000 from DRIVE Committee.

Koster for Missouri - $25,000 from GCI Remarketing LLC.

Birthdays

Happy birthday to former Rep. Martin Rucker.