Monday, February 1, 2016

Brunner Starts Radio

John Brunner is the first one out of the gates.  He’s starting radio advertisements for his gubernatorial bid today, weeks before filing opens.  It’s the usual opening move, a biographical piece to re-introduce him to voters.  The ad is narrated by his wife and runs through his life story – Marines, saving the family business, involved in Christian volunteer work.  See it here.

What It Means

Nine months before the vote, is this too early?  Not if it’s the beginning of a long and sustained campaign.  And that possibility has to weigh on his opponents.  I think this opening move might accelerate the timelines of some other candidates.  Eric Greitens and Catherine Hanaway might have to start earlier, lest Brunner gets a few months uncontested.  (I imagine Peter Kinder will keep raising solid amounts and hording for the final months of the campaign.)

We’ll see…


Patriots for America, Brought To You By…

Patriots for America, the SuperPAC which started months ago needling Eric Greitens about his seemingly Democratic past, filed their end of year campaign finance report.  It was filed with the FEC.  (Patriots hasn’t filed anything in Missouri, despite what looks to me like the clear letter of the law requiring them to).

So who’s been paying for their research, website and mailers?  No one – so far.  It’s all been done on credit according to the report.  Patriots showed $0 in receipts, and $86,224 in debt.

The debt breaks down like this: Draper Sterling LLC is owed $56,234 for “business consulting;” the committee’s treasurer Adam McLain is owed $10,000 for research; Semcasting LLC is owed $19,989 for digital advertising.

Now… what gets a little interesting here is what looks to my eyes like an obvious scheme to keep a curtain across this SuperPAC.  A Google search of “Draper Sterling” pulls up lots of Mad Men references.  And Draper Sterling LLC was incorporated about two months ago – December 2, 2015 in Delaware.  Who is Draper Sterling LLC? We may never know.


Mannies: Marriott for Trump

From the Twitter feed… Jo Mannies ‏@jmannies: Hearing that former GWBush aide Brian Marriott tapped to be Trump's Mo cmpn director for 3/15 primary.


Observer: He’s one of Bush’s top guys.  He used to work for Sam Graves and Peter Kinder.  Been living in DC a long time. He also worked at FCC during Bush 43. It’s note-worthy he’s coming back to do this.  He’s been gone from Missouri a long time.  He’d better hire someone that has been here in the last ten years to him on the ground as much has changed.  Marriott is best friends with Jeff Roe as well…


Finally It’s Here

It’s here.  Iowa, Iowa, Iowa… today’s the day.  So much that even someone like me who deliberately tries to ignore national politics can’t help but be aware… So anyone who wants to play… Email me ( your predictions by 4PM… Top three Republican winners, in order with percentages.  I’ll crown the MOScout Iowa Guru tomorrow morning.  Good luck!


For your reading pleasure… a Politico piece on Donald Trump’s mind-boggling lead in the polls (here), and an Ad Age piece on Cambridge Analytica’s voter prediction model that Ted Cruz’ campaign believes in (here).


Rumorville: Smith in Senate 23

One source thinks that former Rep. Joe Smith (see a bio here) might jump into the Senate 23 Republican primary.  Since the withdrawal of Rep. Mark Parkinson, the race was between Rep. Anne Zerr and businessman Bill Eigel.  Conservatives have been anxious to keep it a one-on-one race as they worry multiple candidates would split their vote.

We’ll see…


MEC Fines

The Missouri Ethics Commission fined Jeff LeGarce $1,900 for violates in supporting a Hannibal ballot issue (see it here); Landon Key $100 for leaving off a “paid for” disclosure in Dellwood (see it here); and Selena Amerson         $2,000 for filing violations in the Ritenour School Board race (see it here).


Parson Endorsements

Sen. Mike Parson, running for lieutenant governor, announced several more endorsements from past elected officials… “Former Sens. Doyle Childers, Dan Clemens, Gary Nodler, and Morris Westfall, and former Reps. David Day, Barney Fisher, Steve Hobbs, Tom Loehner, B.J. Marsh, Bob Nance, Darrell Pollock, Rodney Schad, Dwight Scharnhorst, Don Wells, and Billy Pat Wright.”


Hearings of Interest

Senate Elections Committee: Monday, 2PM in Senate Lounge.

The House Voter ID bills will be heard.

Senate Rules Committee: Tuesday, 9AM in Senate Lounge.

Rep. Justin Alferman and Sen. Scott Sifton will have their bills concerning lobbyists gifts be heard.

Senate Judiciary Committee: Tuesday, 1PM in Senate Lounge.

Sens. Bob Dixon, Jamilah Nasheed and Maria Chappelle-Nadal have their bill concerning law enforcement officers using force heard.

Also, Sen. Kurt Schaefer has a few bills dealing with terrorism.

Senate Small Business Committee: Tuesday, 1PM at SCR1.

Sen. Gary Romine’s bill which would change discrimination law (the contributing/motivating factor thing we go through every year) will be heard, as will bills on prevailing wage from Sens. Dan Brown and David Sater.


Today’s Events

From Mary Scruggs’ indispensable events calendar:

Missouri Electric Cooperative Reception – Capitol Plaza Hotel – 5:30PM.

Missouri Soybean Assn. Legislative Reception – 3337 Emerald Ln. – Jefferson City – 5:30PM.

Missouri Soybean Assn. Annual Mtg. – Capitol, HHR 2 – Jefferson City – 8:15AM.


Lobbyists Registrations

Mike Grote added Armstrong Teasdale LLP.

Gary Burton and James Foley added Diamond Game.

Derek Leffert added Association of Missouri Nurse Practitioners.


$5K+ Contributions

MO Petroleum Marketers + Convenience Store Assoc PAC - $80,000 from LPC Inc.

Greitens for Missouri – $10,000 from William and Lucille W Magers Family Foundation.

Greitens for Missouri - $5,001 from Joan and James ONeill.

UAW Region 5 Midwest States Political Action Committee - $6,000 from UAW Region 5 Exchange Account.

Republican Governors Association Missouri - $100,000 from Republican Governors Association.