Thursday, September 24, 2015

Big Humphreys Money Backs Hawley

In the large contributions today (see below), David Humphreys, momma Ethelmae, and sis Sarah combine to put $500K into the coffers of Josh Hawley.

As I reported yesterday, Sen. Kurt Schaefer entered this quarter with a very big money lead.  He has $1.4 million on-hand and Hawley was just starting his committee.  The gap is closing.

What’s behind the Humpheys money?  Hawley made his name as a social conservative fighting ObamaCare, but one observer says that the Humphreys money is likely best described as “anti-MATA money.”


Realtors Chip $500K into Ballot IP

I forgot to mention another big check that hit the other day: the Realtors’ PAC chipped in $500K to Missourians for Fair Taxation. It’s to help fund their initiative petition to prohibit the expansion of the sales tax.  They have folks out collecting signatures on it.

It appears that their fear is that the Rex Sinquefield movement to lower or even eliminate the state income tax will someday be more successful.  At that point the legislature would look for a replacement stream of revenue, and expanding the sales tax – to say, tax real estate transactions – would be on the table.  They’re looking to preemptively blow up the bridge to that place.


Governing Magazine cautions against relying on the sales tax.  See it here.

Pull Quote: As states have recovered from the recession, seven cut individual income taxes (and increased sales taxes). Others, on the other hand, increased their sales tax after income tax cuts resulted in too little revenue. This trend has resulted in a heavier reliance on the sales tax than ever before for some states, according to a new report by the institute. The sales tax is less volatile than the income tax, which means it can be easier to forecast accurately from year to year…  as the economy moves toward technology and services (things that are difficult to tax), the sales tax base is capturing an increasingly smaller piece of what consumers are actually spending. Finally, sales tax revenue as a whole is growing slower than personal income.


Big Money Cycle

The $500K from Humphreys to fund anti-RTWers, the $500K from Humphreys to Hawley, the $500K from Realtors to their IP, the $150K from Little Tobacco to fight the cigarette tax, the $500K from Menlo Park to Greitens… it all adds up to a huge ocean of cash in Missouri this cycle.  Millions and millions are going to spent on the governor’s race, the US Senate race, the initiative petitions, and the other statewide races.

For capitalists, 2016 is going to be a great time to own a TV station.

For candidates, how will you get your message heard among the waves and waves of ads?


GoMO Formed

Go Mo was formed.  It’s a campaign committee treasurer.  The treasurer is Brad Ketcher.  It was formed to support Medical Research & Medical Marijuana on the statewide ballot in November 2016.

I don’t think it’s related to GoMo Holdings.  But maybe?? See the website here“They say, money doesn’t grow on trees, turns out they were right, it grows on weeds!” - GoMo Holdings LLC


Follow-Up on Nixon’s Secret Surgery

On the question of whether Governor Jay Nixon should have informed Lieutenant Governor Peter Kinder before being put under the knife for his knee replacement surgery, one veteran observer says that “Nixon is under no duty to do anything”

Anyone who wants to dive into the weeds on this one…. Go here.


eMailbag on Nixon Knee Replacement

“So after running the item about the Governor’s knees how many texts did you get saying ‘While they’re in there they should also replace spine/heart/brain/ears’ etc?  I have no faith in MO political class to pass on an easy swipe…”



Sen. Jason Holsman’s re-election kick-off last night had a crowd of over eighty supporters, reportedly bringing in $30K at the door…


Kick-off week continues… Friday 5PM, Rep. Bill Otto formally launches his congressional bid at the Laborers Local 110 headquarters, 4532 S Lindbergh Boulevard.


The Missouri Peace Officer Standards and Training (POST) Commission will hold a public meeting in Ferguson Sept. 24, 1PM, to gather suggestions for changes to law enforcement officer training requirements.


eMailbag on RTW Strategry

Interesting comment re: RTW forces being able to find 13 votes. Does that mean they're already giving up on the only win they need to pass RTW?  Is Governor Koster a foregone conclusion even in their minds?


eMailbag on Whether Missourians Want an Oxford Graduate

That Greitens video might be the most out-of-touch-with-Missouri-voters bio piece I have ever seen in my life.


Today’s Events

From Mary Scruggs’ indispensable events calendar:

Sen. David Sater Golf – Ledgestone Country Club – Branson West.

Rep. Michael Butler Promenade on the Park – Park Ave. Mansion, St. Louis – 5PM.

Rep. Linda Black BBQ & Bonfire– 100 Meinhardt Lane, Park Hills –7PM.


Lobbyists Registrations

Mark Bruns, Gary Burton, and James Foley deleted Liberty Dental Plan.

Brent Hemphill deleted Associated Builders & Contractors Inc., Heart of America Chapter.


$5K+ Contributions

Missourians for Peter Kinder - $5,001 from General Machine & Supply.

Emerson’s Missouri Responsible Government Fund - $29,500 from Emerson Electric Co.

Roberts for St Louis - $150,000 from Steven Roberts II.

Eastern MO Laborers Education & Benevolent Fund - $500,000 from L.I.U.N.A Local 110 PAC Fund.

Slay for Mayor - $10,000 from St. Louis Cardinals LLC.

Greitens for Missouri - $10,000 from Guarantee Electrical Company.

Citizens to Elect Kurt Schaefer Attorney General - $12,000 from MADA Dealers Interested in Government.

Koster for Missouri - $10,000 from National Health Corporation Political Action Committee.

Hawley for Missouri - $125,000 from David Humphreys.

Hawley for Missouri - $250,000 from Ethelmae Humphreys.

Hawley for Missouri - $125,000 from Sarah Atkins.

Committee to Elect Jon Carpenter - $5,000 from Will Talbert.



Happy birthdays to Terry Witte (63), and former Rep. Kevin Wilson (57).