Tuesday, December 15, 2015

Blunt-Kander

I think yesterday’s bit from the camp of Jason Kander poking Roy Blunt about potential conflicts of interest between the incumbent US Senator and his lobbyist / campaign manager son, Andy, was significant.  That’s because it signals a likely continuing attack line.  In so much as Kander can keep associating the Blunt name with lobbying and Washington dealings it helps define the incumbent as an insider.

Camp Kander will probably seek to seize on every piece of news from now until November to create this narrative.

On the other hand, Blunt enjoys both the powers of incumbency (more campaign money, higher name ID), and issues which may resonate with Missouri’s conservative voters.  One such issue is expected to be Voter ID.  It’s particularly potent because Kander is the sitting secretary of state and like most Democrats is opposed to implementing an ID requirement.

The issue is said to poll very strongly, and it’s one of the wedge issues that Blunt will likely exploit.

But

The wildcard in this race is the environment.  As brilliant as the tacticians and strategists might be, as hard as the candidates might work, this race might be out of their hands.  If it’s a strong Democratic year, Kander could be picking out Washington digs.  And if it’s a solid Republican year, he might not get within striking range.

For the handicappers among you, this eighth year of a Democratic president could bring voter fatigue with Barack Obama and the Dems.  But if the GOP puts up one of the lesser qualified presidential candidates leading their current pack, it could also be an avalanche of Dem year.

I guess we’ll see, huh?

 

Politico Pro on Greitens

Politico Pro yesterday published an article entitled “Eric Greitens’ Democratic past” that sent buzz-waves through the Missouri political circles.  The topic has been widely discussed, but this was the first thorough journalistic effort to shine light on footprints from Greitens’ previous political flirtations. See it here (PoliticoPro subscription required).

Pull Quote: But Greitens’ record of engagement and relationships with the Democratic establishment as recently as a few years ago contradict the self-proclaimed “conservative outsider” gubernatorial campaign he is running…

Greitens first considered running for Senate as a Democrat in 2009, but he passed after Missouri's Democratic Secretary of State Robin Carnahan entered the race,  according to DCCC records. He began talking with the committee in March of that year. He spoke with then-Majority Leader Steny Hoyer in May and then-DCCC Chairman Chris Van Hollen in June. He flew to D.C. on July 13 for meetings with committee staff, Democratic numbers guru Mark Gersh, Van Hollen, Israel and then-Reps. Patrick Murphy and Russ Carnahan. Then-Rep. Tom Perriello, a liberal hero and favorite of President Barack Obama, called him the next day…

Greitens says he listened to the DCCC's pitch out of politeness, not a sign of interest. "I would also listen to people who wanted me to work for a Fortune 500 company or run a university," he said…

Before the failed House recruitment, people who knew Greitens before this episode also remember him as an active Democrat. In 2008, Greitens and former Missouri Gov. Bob Holden drove together to the Democratic National Convention in Denver, where Obama accepted his party’s presidential nomination before a crowd of 84,000 people….

 

eMailbag on Labor and Koster

I find it hilarious that Republicans get apoplectic when Unions give large sums to those that help him, when in fact, Humphries, Herzog, Hoberock, and Sinquefield give millions to candidates that they support… If Union members want to opt out of a PAC, all they have to do is sign a card and POOF!, the political donations are no longer taken out of their checks…

 

eMailbag on Haynes

Very smart hire by Wellcare. Haynes has had a hand in electing nearly every single sitting Republican in the boot heel. He's got a great personality and has a well-deserved reputation of being an honest broker.

 

Lobbyists Registrations

Lynne Schlosser added Missouri Association of Area Agencies on Aging; and deleted International Association Of Fire Fighters Local #73, and New Venture Fund - Collaborative For Student Success

Dena Ladd added MO Coalition for Lifesaving Cures.

 

$5K+ Contributions

Koster for Missouri - $25,000 from IUOE Local 513 Political & Education Fund.

Missouri Senate Campaign Committee - $10,000 from QC Holdings Inc.

Campaign for Clean Water StL - $20,000 from Civic Progress Action.

Midwest Region Laborers’ Political League Education Fund - $7,088 from Laborers Supplemental Dues Fund.

Contreras for Treasurer - $5,001 from Kenneth McClain.

Greitens for Missouri - $50,000 from Jerald Kent.

Greitens for Missouri - $5,001 from John Miller.

Greitens for Missouri - $25,000 from Paola Luptak.

Elect Bill White - $10,000 from Freeman Physicians Group Political Action Committee.

Rizzo for Missouri - $5,001 from Carpenters Help In The Political Process (CHIPP).

 

Birthdays

Happy birthday to Ric Telhorst.

 

MOScout Schedule

The auto “out of office replies” have started...  Are we winding down the year already?  The MOScout plan is full – if thinner – Daily Updates this week with a Weekly Poll this weekend.  Then Monday through Wednesday next week, and a lonnnnnng weekend.