Tuesday, October 27, 2015

The Case for Kraus

Yes, Jay Ashcroft leads Sen. Will Kraus by 30 points.  Yes, he has no voting record to target.  Yes, his father’s service as governor and US attorney general during the Bush administration makes last name is the gold standard in Republican primaries.  But…. Don’t count out Kraus.

Here’s why:

First, Ashcroft’s got 50% because he has near universal name ID.  In that context 50% isn’t the slam dunk it appears.  And it hints at a potential weakness…

Second, Ashcroft will, by virtue of his last name, be the “insider,” in an election cycle where – if presidential politics are any indication – outsiders are more popular than ever.  This narrative could be even more powerful in Missouri after the recent Jeff City scandals.

Third, Ashcroft might end up with a money problem.  While one wouldn’t expect Ashcroft to have trouble raising money, so far he trails Kraus.  Last quarter Ashcroft only raised $35K.  He now has $88K on-hand (with $8K in debt).  Kraus has $614K on-hand.

In his state senate race Ashcroft raised $1 million dollars.  However, he had some help in the senate race that he might not have now.  First, there’s Team Rex.  Altogether Rex Sinquefield and those affiliated with him gave Ashcroft about $110K.  Sinquefield appears to be with Kraus in this race.  Second, Ashcroft had substantial help from Republican senators hoping to keep Senate 24 Republican.  They might not get involved in a Republican primary, but if they do, it’ll be to help out their colleague, Kraus.  In Ashcroft’s senate race, the Republicans’ Missouri Senate Campaign Committee contributed $580K to his campaign.  Additionally senators gave from their own campaign accounts (Ron Richard, $55K; Tom Dempsey $25K; Mike Kehoe, $18.5K; and another $26K from other elected.).  That adds up to $705K.

In other word, take out the Rex money, and the other electeds’ money, and Ashcroft raised only around $200K for his state senate campaign.

I believe that Kraus will outraise and outspend Ashcroft.

Clearly Ashcroft’s the favorite in this race.  And that’s got to worry some Republicans.  What sort of general election candidate will Ashcroft be?  His last name will make winning Independents hard, and he won’t raise the money to compete with the Democratic candidate.  Maybe they’d be better off backing Kraus in an upset bid in the primary, than accepting Ashcroft as the inevitable secretary of state nominee.

 

8-Day Reports

With the special elections in House 29, 36, and 89 coming next week.  The 8-Day reports were filed yesterday.

House 29 (Torpey)

Rory Rowland (Democrat) has raised about $24K.  He has $8K on-hand.  He’s received about $43K from the Democratic State Party.

Brian DeMoss (Republican) has raised $21K, and has $5K on-hand.

House 36 (McManus)

Daron McGee (Democrat) didn’t file his 8-Day yet.  According to his October report, he’d raised $11K and had $7K on-hand.

Nola Wood (Republican) has raised $9K, and has about $5K on-hand.

Mary Ann Drape (Independent) didn’t file an 8-Day yet.  According to her October report, she’d raised $9K and had $2K on-hand.

House 89 (Diehl)

Al Gerber (Democrat) has raised about $3K and has about $2K on-hand.

Dean Plocher (Republican) has raised $33K and has $33K on-hand.

 

House Republican Campaign Committee’s 8-Day report showed polling in House 36 and House 89, but not House 29.  Perhaps they were checking on any lingering impact of the Diehl scandal in House 89, and seeing if the Independent candidate in House 36 gave them a steal opportunity, but no path for victory in House 29?

 

Mayors Shake Fist at Congress

Robert Stephens, mayor of Springfield, and Sly James, mayor of Kansas City, are among the mayors surveyed for Politico’s piece this morning on gun control. See it here.

Pull Quote: [T]he mayors strongly backed President Barack Obama’s push for congressional action on gun control, believing that more gun regulation, rather than less, was the answer to the crime and shootings. They resoundingly opposed, by roughly a 9-1 margin, both “open carry” proposals and the idea of arming teachers or principals as a way to increase school security.

 

Diehl’s Cash

Yesterday former speaker John Diehl finally filed his October quarter.  He listed two expenditures, paying Barklage & Knodell $4K, and sending $20K to the Adam Smith Foundation; Diehl has $206K on-hand

 

Roe’s Cruz See Path to White House

Politico has a piece today on Senator Ted Cruz’ presidential bid.  Political consultant Jeff Roe gets some quotes.  See it here.

Pull Quotes: “My 19-month-old daughter couldn’t color a map that’s better for us on March 1,” said Jeff Roe, Cruz’s campaign manager… “It’s almost like a fable, like the Holy Grail that nobody can ever do,” said Roe, the campaign manager, of uniting the movement. “We have the unique chance this time to pull it off.”

I don’t follow national politics much, but my sense is that there’s 0% Republicans actually end up with Trump, and half this process is moving from one hot candidate to another.  Cruz, having not flamed out , is still in the mix, and might just peak at the right time.

And

Former heavyweight champion Mike Tyson endorsed Donald Trump for president.  See it here.

 

Court Rules Against TAMKO

Chuck Hatfield’s Facebook page pointed this out.  Mo. Court of Appeals says David Humphreys' Tamko Roofing cannot force Methodist Church to arbitration over shingles.

See the ruling here.

It says that wrapping the arbitration agreement around the product doesn’t make it binding…

 

Kolky Throws Punch at Koster

The press release: Rep. Glen Kolkmeyer, the chairman of the House Committee on Transportation, has issued the following statement regarding Attorney General Chris Koster and the Bridgeton Landfill:

I agree with my colleagues that the Attorney General has overplayed his hand when it comes to the false reports regarding the Bridgeton Landfill. Koster’s own experts have stated that the hysteria is unwarranted and disagree with his findings. Like Nixon in Ferguson, Koster has barged into Bridgeton to only make things worse. The Bridgeton Landfill is closely monitored and poses no threat to public health. This isn’t a campaign commercial – this is real life – and Koster’s actions have scared people into closing businesses and moving out of an already vulnerable local economy.

It is like Koster has come into a crowded theater, near the end of a movie, and yelled “fire!” It is our duty as public officials to sort through information and make decisions that represent the best interest of Missourians, not what gets us in front of TV cameras as we try to climb the political ladder…

 

Priddy To Keynote Empower MO’s Fundy

Tuesday, November 3 is the annual dinner for Empower Missouri. Bob Priddy is the keynote speaker, and his topic will be "Forty Years of Missouri Government: A Journalist's Reflection."

Drinks and a silent auction at 5:30PM, dinner at 6PM, and Priddy at 6:30PM. Tickets are $35 each. Get them by emailing Susan@EmpowerMissouri.org.

 

Lobbyists Registrations

James Harris added Belmont Development Company LLC.

Mark Murphy added Missouri State Employees’ Retirement System.

Jerry Burch deleted Missouri hospital Association.

 

$5K+ Contributions

MO Republican Party - $10,000 from Missourians for Responsible & Better Govt.

 

Birthdays

Happy birthdays to Rep. Jay Houghton, DESE’s Stacey Preis, and Andria Simckes.