Friday, September 19, 2014

Republicans’ Senate 22 Poll

Republicans are circulating a polling memo which they say shows Rep. Paul Wieland in good position to seize Senate 22 for the GOP in November.

Here’s the text of the American Viewpoint polling memo:

The following outlines the key findings from a survey commissioned by the Missouri Senate Campaign Committee in Missouri’s 22nd State Senate District.  Interviews with likely November 2014 voters were conducted September 8-9, 2014.  The margin of error for the entire sample (n=300) is +/- 5.7% at the 95% confidence level.  Approximately 30% of interviews were conducted with a cell phone sample of those who can’t be reached on a landline. 


The political environment strongly favors Republicans in this district. 

There is a 10-point GOP advantage on the generic State Senate ballot (44%-34%), indicating Roorda would have to greatly over-perform with Republican-leaning voters to win. 

Direction of the state is terrible, with only 27% of voters saying things in Missouri are headed in the right direction and 58% saying things are off on the wrong track. 

Even more concerning for Democrats is that Governor Nixon’s mishandling of Ferguson has greatly damaged his reputation in his own backyard.  His approve-disapprove ratings are only 37%-55%, down dramatically from 55%-39% in June. 

Even though Roorda has been on cable for several weeks and is better known at this point than Wieland, the race is essentially tied. 

Wieland trails Roorda by only 2-points (33%-35%), with 28% still undecided. 

Among those with an opinion of both candidates (25% of the electorate), Wieland leads 48%-46%. 

Given the Democratic problems both in the state and at the national level, it’s very possible that Roorda’s base will be depressed and that is evident by the fact that Wieland leads 40%-33% among high propensity voters.  


Paul Wieland appears to have the wind at his back at this point of the campaign and once he begins the paid voter contact phase, should quickly overtake Roorda and recapture this district for Republicans.


Yard Signs, Check; Phone Bank, Check; Blimp?

Grow Missouri – the recent recipient of a Rex Sinquefield multi-million dollar check – has apparently rented a blimp.  See the Combest-linked photo here.  The blimp will travel the state imploring citizens to “create a great state!”

See the Post-Dispatch report on it here.

Make whatever snarky comments you want, this will thrill my six-year old son…


Anti-Gay Attorney Apologizes

Springfield attorney Dee Wampler who took pen to paper and decry the great troubles he’s endured fighting off the homosexual agenda from being crammed down his throat, apologized that his letter was “harsh.”  He notes with some pride that he is “man enough” to do so… Ah, to be man enough to grow up, that’s the trick though… Read it here.


St. Louis County’s Municipal Courts Embarrassment

The Arch City Defenders, a non-profit supplying pro bono legal assistance, published a report on the misdeeds occurring in some St. Louis County municipalities’ courts.  Read it here, and be prepared to shake your head.


Lottery Spin

Governor Jay Nixon released his review of the Missouri Lottery, and simultaneously appointed four new members to the State Lottery Commission, a move expected to presage some dramatic changes.

One of those changes could be the removal of the programs director, May Scheve Reardon, who isn’t mentioned at all in the press release.  That seems what all of this is pointing towards.  However one politico remarks, “People believe strongly the fix is in and she is gone. I’m not certain because (1) Nixon is so unpopular right now, and (2) Reardon can be a tough street fighter…”

The press release: “Missouri Lottery's operations has identified several areas for improvement and announced the appointment of four new members to the State Lottery Commission. In July, citing a decrease in the percent of lottery revenues going to education while lottery ticket sales continued to grow, the Governor ordered the Office of Administration to conduct a review of the Missouri Lottery's operations… With a focus on the previous 10 years, the Office of Administration Budget & Planning division reviewed data specific to the Missouri Lottery, data from all 44 state lotteries, and research regarding lottery operation and performance.  The review includes recommendations intended to increase the amount of funding available for transfer to public education.  Recommendations include: Aligning incentives for contractors with the goal of increased funds for education; Integration of contracting procedures to align with the Office of Administration's established regulations for vendor contracts; Carefully scrutinizing administrative expenses to determine how consolidated services could be utilized to reduce those costs; Conducting an analysis to more comprehensively review the importance of prize payout percentages relative to other factors in maximizing funds for education; Implementing a more systematic review of projected versus actual return-on-investment on advertising and promotional expenses and suspending activities without a positive return.

The Governor also named four new members to the State Lottery Commission: Dr. Terry R. Adams (D), of Lake St. Louis… Dr. Phyllis A. Chase (D), of Kansas City… Paul Kincaid (I), of Springfield… John Twitty (R), of Springfield… The appointments will be subject to confirmation by the Missouri Senate…”


Nixon’s New Engagement Office

In response to the Ferguson tragedy and crisis, Governor Jay Nixon created an Office of Community Engagement. It will be headed by former states senator Maida Coleman.

One Democrat’s sarcastic one-word reaction: “bold.”

The press release:  “Across our state, Missouri communities are facing serious issues involving race, educational and economic opportunities, and poverty," Gov. Nixon said. "The Office of Community Engagement will be responsible for facilitating meaningful communication about these issues that will yield concrete results. Maida and Marvin (Teer) will get to work immediately to listen, learn, and assess the challenges facing minority and low-income communities across the state, and help to develop specific policies to address them."


New MEC Filings This Week

Citizens to Elect Sandra Collop (County Clerk Adair County; Democrat); Cathy Collop treasurer.

Jill Carson for County Clerk (County Clerk Buchanan County; Democrat); Brian Carson treasurer.

Bacchus for Kansas City (Kenneth Bacchus for Council Person District 5 City Of Kansas City; Non-Partisan); Curtis Rogers treasurer.

Arnold 4 Rauls (Samuel Rauls for County Executive Jefferson County; Democrat); Joyce Deckman treasurer.

Committee to Elect Tom Brandom (Collector Of Revenue Clay County; Democrat); Vanessa Brandom treasurer.

Friends of Danny Tuggle (Council Person District 1 Jefferson County; Democrat); Matthew Tuggle treasurer.

Missourians for Safe Transportation and New Jobs Inc.; Bill McKenna treasurer.

Citizens to Elect Jeffrey L Boyd (Alderman Ward 22 City Of St Louis; Democrat); Patrice Johnson-Boyd treasurer.


Fundraising Calendar

Today’s fundraising events from Mary Scruggs’ indispensable events calendar:

Rep. Jim Hansen Golf – Norwood’s Golf Course, Hannibal.

September 20 – Rep. Bill White Show-Me Shootout – Claythorne Lodge, Columbus, KS.


$5K+ Contributions

MO Freedom - $11,500 from Bartimus, Frickleton, Robertson & Goza P.C.

Citizens for Steve Stenger - $12,500 from McBride & Son Management Co.

SITE Improvement Association of Missouri PAC - $10,350 from SITE Improvement Association.

MO Democratic State Committee - $10,000 from Anheuser Busch Companies.

Missourians for Koster - $25,000 from UAW V CAP.

Missouri Senate Campaign Committee - $30,000 from Committee to Elect Ron Richard.

Clean Water Healthy Communities PAC - $75,000 from Missouri-American Water Company.

Friends of Tom Schweich - $5,001 from Kelly & Co Sales LLC.

Schupp for Senate - $10,000 from Supporters of Health Research & Treatments.

Schupp for Senate - $25,000 from Missouri State Democratic Committee.


Happy Birthday

Happy birthdays to Former Reps. Rachel Bringer (43) and Michael McGhee (67), Shawn Sisco and Alex Salsman.

Sunday: Former Rep. Roman LeBlanc (43), and House candidate Joe Corica (28).