Monday, April 6, 2015

Legislature is off today.  They reconvene tomorrow.  Here are some quick bits…

 

Poll Cross Tabs

Find the cross tabs to this week’s poll in the Special Reports section here.

A few thoughts…

Governor:  This race is totally wide open.  Catherine Hanaway “leads” with 14%, another 22% split between three other possible candidates and 65% undecided.  Republicans who hoped to unify early and mount a strong challenge to Chris Koster and devolved into the exact opposite scenario.

Two readers asked why I didn’t include Peter Kinder in the mix.  I haven’t heard from Kinder’s camp that they are seriously considering a bid.  But one of them says he is looking at it.

We’ll see….

Lieutenant Governor: Assuming Kinder stays put, he starts the race with a strong hand against Bev Randles and her $1 million war-chest from Rex Sinquefield.

Secretary of State: Jay Ashcroft’s last name makes him the favorite against Will Kraus.  Kraus’ path to close the wide opening gap will depend on three factors: first, outworking Ashcroft; second, hoping for a gaffe from the untested Ashcroft; and third, relying on the ability of his consultant Jeff Roe, to target and turn out the primary GOP voters.

Attorney General: Both Sen. Kurt Schaefer and potential candidate Josh Hawley are relatively unknown among the statewide voters.  Schaefer’s early money lead is important in this regard.
Roe Watch

Consultant Jeff Roe’s presidential client Ted Cruz released his first television commercial.  It aims for the religious right and hits its mark.  See it here.

 

Kander Dings Blunt

In what I imagine will be a regular line of attack from Jason Kander for the next year and a half…

Kander email blast: The Senate voted on a lot of amendments last week, but there's one in particular we can't let Senator Roy Blunt get away with: a vote against a measure that would prevent ending Medicare as we know it.  This isn't the first vote Senato Blunt has cast expressing his support for turning Medicare into a voucher program and increasing costs for seniors, and it's long pasttime to hold him accountable.

 

Bits

Senator Claire McCaskill in a bathrobe during a false alarm… See it here.

 

Politico ranks Missouri’s Senate race as #11 most competitive.  See it here.

 

Washington Post editorial on big money and corruption.  See it here.

 

 

 

eMailbag: Passanise for Brunner

From someone without a dog in the fight: There is really nothing the folks in the Tom Schweich camp that think Joe Passanise is wrong can do other than complain. They maybe should have settled on Eric Greitens or Mike Parson earlier but you know there is a ton of stress coming out of two awful tragedies and there is no evidence that would have made a difference.

I am thinking Passanise is making a mistake. John Brunner ran a poor campaign for the US Senate. There isn't any evidence from anything I have seen that he will do better this time.  On the other hand Parson is a somewhat unproven commodity and Greitens has some similarities to buying a lottery ticket. Chris Koster wins the week again. And again. And again.

 

Lobbyist Registrations

Kelvin Simmons added Lyft.

Heath Clarkston and Harry Gallagher added Missouri Retailers Association.

 

$5K+ Contributions

Committee for a Safe Community - $7,100 from Cottleville Professional Association.

Hanaway for Governor - $25,000 from Stanley Herzog.

Compton for Council - $5,400 from Springfield Good Government Committee.

 

Birthdays

Happy birthday to Rep. John McCaherty (the big 5-0), and Mark Jones.