Monday August 4, 2014

Remington Polls: Amendment 1 Tight, Stenger Way Ahead

Axiom Strategies Jeff Roe’s polling company Remington Research Group (see the website here), released a few snapshots ahead of tomorrow election…


Constitutional Amendments

Their press release:  Amendment 1, also known as "Right to Farm" holds a lead but the race is too close to call. Supporters of Amendment 1 totaled 48%, with opponents at 40%, and undecided at 12%.


"Amendment 1 is going to be determined by turnout and could go either way," said Titus Bond of Remington Research Group. "With nothing else at the top of the ballot to drive turnout it will really come down to who is more passionate about this issue. Amendment 1 supporters appear to have lost their message to Amendment 1 opponents but the ballot language may be able drive their campaign to a victory," said Bond.


The other close race is with Constitutional Amendment 8, which seeks to create a lottery system to benefit veterans is very close with a high number of undecided voters. 41% of voters support Amendment 8, 46% oppose, and 13% are undecided…


Constitutional Amendment 5, which directs the state to protect 2nd Amendment gun rights is cruising towards victory with 60% of voters supporting, 31% opposing, and 9% undecided.


Constitutional Amendment 9, which protects Missourian's electronic communications from unreasonable searches and seizure is strongly supported by voters according to the survey. 67% of voters support Amendment 9, only 20% oppose it, with 14% undecided.


Constitutional Amendment 7 was not tested due to a conflict of interest.


Remington Research Group conducted an automated survey of 1,115 likely primary voters July 31st through August 2nd. Responses were weighted to reflect turnout demographics of Missouri primary election. Self-described Party Affiliation breakdown is 35% Republican, 33% Democrat, and 32% Non-Partisan. The margin of error is +/- 2.98% with a 95% level of confidence. The survey was commissioned independent of any campaign or committee involved in the race.


St. Louis County Executive Democratic Primary

The new numbers for the County Executive's race shows Steve Stenger leading Charlie Dooley by 15 points. Stenger has 51% of the vote, to 36% for Dooley while 10% are undecided. The third candidate, Ronald Levy remains a non-factor at 3%.


"A long and storied political career will end Tuesday unless Charlie Dooley can outperform the ballot with an incredible turnout operation. After over 30 years of holding office in St. Louis County you can assume that Dooley possesses a strong ground game. That ground game, specifically in the African-American community, is what will determine if Charlie Dooley can close the gap and avoid defeat," said Titus Bond…


Remington Research Group conducted an automated survey of 1,745 Likely Democrat voters July 31st through August 2nd. Responses were weighted to reflect turnout demographics in St. Louis County. The margin of error for the survey is +/-2.4% with a 95% level of confidence. The survey was commissioned independent of any campaign or committee involved in the race.



Rehder and Schaaf Tussle?

Rep. Holly Rehder takes a whack at Sen. Rob Schaaf in her “weekly report.”  See it here.


Pull Quote: The State of Missouri has tried to pass (the prescription drug database) for many years, and one Senator, who is also a Doctor, has filibustered and stood in the way of this, making Missouri the hot bed for doctor shopping and narcotic sales - Senator Dr. Schaaf. Click here to read The New York Times article that ran on July 20th and you will understand why Dr. Schaaf doesn't want me in the Missouri Legislature.



House 3: Walker’s Final Rebuttal

In Rep. Nate Walker’s closing ad against Missouri Club for Growth-funded challenger John Bailey, Walker takes aim at… St. Louis.


Against a background of an auction taking place, the narrator makes the case…


Will a St. Louis billionaire buy our votes for the Missouri House?  Aren’t we against everything that stands for? Sick of all the junk mail, phone calls and negative advertising? Doesn’t a vote for John Bailey just endorse this type of campaign? Is St. Louis trying to fool us with a negative campaign against Nate Walker?  Keeping us from knowing where John bailey stands on issues, avoiding stances on amnesty and right to work, lying about Nate Walker’s personal life and votes.  Isn’t St. Louis against our views on guns and abortion?  North Missouri won’t be fooled.  Say No to St. Louis and vote against Dr. John Bailey’s negative campaign before it’s too late. On August 5 say yes to Nate Walker…



Boehner to Headline Luetkemeyer Fundy

Speaker John Boehner will be in Missouri next month to headline a fundraiser for Congressman Blaine Luetkemeyer.  Here are the details:


Thursday, September 4, 2014… a VIP Roundtable and Reception with Speaker John Boehner to support Congressman Blaine Luetkemeyer… at the home of Marsha & Pat Dubbert, Jefferson City, Missouri…

5:30 PM – VIP Roundtable – $5,200 per couple/$2,600 per person/ $2,500 per PAC

6:00 PM – Reception – $1,000 per couple or PAC Minimum Suggested Contribution



Pols Against Kids

Politicians were quick to decry the decision by Mayor Francis Slay to offer St. Louis City as a relocation site for up to 60 of the 30,000 children fleeing violence and poverty in South America and pursuing a better life by coming to America.  My father’s family came from Germany; my mother’s family came from England; my wife’s father from the Philippines; my wife’s mother’s family from Ireland and Germany.  My kids were still asleep when I got up to write this morning.


Gatschenberger: Ill-Advised to Help the Kids

Senate 2 candidate Rep. Chuck Gatschenberger: I am deeply troubled by the worsening immigration crisis on our southern border and now here in St. Louis. The growing humanitarian crisis is the direct result of failed leadership from the Obama administration and politicians like my opponent, Dr. Bob Onder, who sponsored legislation to allow illegal immigrants to receive welfare benefits. These reckless policies only encourage more unaccompanied children to leave their homes and face abuse in the dangerous journey towards our border.  I applaud the humanitarian efforts to care for these children at our border; but I strongly feel that the current plan for aiding them is extremely ill-advised….

Stream: Can’t Afford to Help the Kids

“While these children are waiting for legal action, taxpayers will have to pay to feed, educate, provide counseling, foster care and legal assistance for tens of thousands of new illegal immigrants. Providing all of these services will cost federal, state and local taxpayers billions of dollars and only encourage more families to send their children alone and vulnerable across the border illegally.  As federal budget deficits rise dramatically and state and local governments are forced to cut programs in a stagnant economy, today’s action diverts precious resources to illegal immigrants at the cost of children in our communities who are already vulnerable…”


Martin: Helping Kids is Radical

“Apparently failure is an option for St. Louis area Democrat leaders. Not only has St. Louis Mayor Francis Slay willingly ignored our state Constitution, in marrying same sex couples, he is now mirroring actions taken by radical Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel, with his recent announcement that Mayor Slay is welcoming illegal immigrants to St. Louis area locations where state and federal tax dollars will pay for failed federal policy,” Chairman Ed Martin said today…



Senate 24 Color

Spotted at the Cardinals baseball game Friday night… Jack Spooner’s daughter… no last minute phone-banking, poll coordinating, sign planting for her…



Meanwhile the latest robocall to hit the district lines features Rob Hicks, sounding “just like Judge Reinhold from Fast Times at Ridgemont High…”



Zellers to Brightergy

Andy Zellers, former staffer at the public Service Commission, has left Dentons and has joined Brightergy as their General Counsel and Vice President for Regulatory Affairs.




St. Louis Business Journal reports that John Brunner’s Vi-Jon may be sold.  Read it here.


Secretary of State Jason Kander came out in favor of the “right to farm” Amendment 1.


At Rep. Vicki Englund’s fundraiser last week, Sen. Scott Sifton called her an “education warrior,” referring to her votes on the student transfer bill and taking votes that weren’t necessarily easy for her, but doing what was in her district’s best interest.



Help Wanted

TeachGreat seeks Canvass Directors.  “TeachGreat is a Missouri Statewide Ballot Initiative appearing on the November 2014 ballot as a constitutional amendment… Build a team of about 10 canvassers by recruiting from the director’s own network, the Teach Great network, or traditional hiring/recruitment means.  Interview prospective staff and make hiring decisions… Canvass Directors will start on August 18 and work through the November 4th Election Day. Beginning August 25, Canvass Directors will be required to work 6 days/week. It will be up to the canvass director which day each week their team takes off…”  See the ad here.



Lobbyist Registrations

From the Gate Way Group website:

Steven Rauschenberger deleted Zebra Technologies Corporation.

Scott D Brown added Alkermes Inc.

Zachary Brunnert, Mike Gibbons, David McCracken, and Tricia Workman added Missouri Deer Association.

Ginger Steinmetz added Missouri Nurses Association; and deleted Normandy School District.

Steven W. Graham deleted University of Missouri, and Office of the vice President for Academic Affairs.

Edward S Nagorsky deleted National Kitchen and Bath Association.



$5K+ Contributions

Missourians for Koster - $25,000 from Langdon & Emison.

MO Republican Party - $7,000 from House Republican Campaign Committee Inc.

House Republican Campaign Committee Inc - $10,000 from Blue Cross & Blue Shield of KC.

Friends of Bob Cirtin - $10,000 from Coalition for Building a Better Tomorrow.

Connect KC - $7,500 from Sprint.



Happy Birthday

Happy birthdays to Robin Carnahan (53), lobbyist Dick Wiles (65), Don Soph, and House 86 candidate Dawn Price.