Monday, May 11, 2015

Final Week: RTW

All eyes will be on the Senate in these first few days as the marquee event has turned to “right to work.”

The largest question is whether Republicans can muster the constitutional majority to move to the previous question.  Despite their large majority in the upper chamber there are two factions within the Republican Caucus that make that PQ vote a very tight affair.

First, there are labor-sympathetic Republican senators who have no interest taking a sledgehammer to the state’s labor organizations.

Second, there is a core of senators interested in the institution, and believe in putting the integrity of the Senate above any particular public policy issue.

Between those two camps, it’s a coin toss if Republicans can secure 18 votes.  If I was betting, I’d bet they don’t have the votes.

Dems On FRA Hostage: Yawn

And the Combest Saturday was an article about Floor Leader Ron Richard saying there’d be no FRA extension vote (read: kiss $3 billion for Medicaid goodbye), until RTW gets a vote.  See it here.

Democrats roll their eyes at that threat.  They note that Governor Jay Nixon would likely just call a special session for next week – ruining everyone’s vacation plans – to pass the extension.

Last Week Complicating Factors

Pro Tem Tom Dempsey acknowledged today that he’ll miss the last two days of the week to attend his daughter’s graduation from Tulane.  The tweet: @senatordempsey:  “1st time in 15yrs. will miss the final 2 days of session. Fantastic work by #moleg on budget, courts, schools, welfare. #Tulane #proudpop”

And over in the House, Republicans are nervous about the continuing rumors that InternGate will bubble up again, creating at the very least, a fourth ring in a three-ring circus.

Otto for Congress?  Earth to Otto!

Can it be?  The Politics1 site listed Rep. Bill Otto as a Democratic candidate in MO’s 2nd Congressional District.  Ann Wagner is the incumbent.  It is a safe Republican seat.  And Otto’s House district is not necessarily a safe Democratic seat.  Otto does have a federal campaign committee formed for congress.

So the real question now becomes: what the hell is he thinking?

Hanaway Hires Up

After Catherine Hanaway’s self-imposed hiatus following the Schweich suicide, rumors have been that her sidelined campaign wouldn’t get back on the road.  Now with a couple hires, it appears that Hanaway is getting back on track.  With over a year until the primary and $1 million in the bank, she’s a legit contender.

Hanaway recently hired Cox McAuliffe as her media consultant. Cox McAuliffe is led by Phil Cox and Doug McAuliffe. Cox is the most recent Executive Director of the Republican Governor's Association. McAuliffe is a well-known ad maker with victories including Massachusetts Governor Charlie Baker, Senator Mitch McConnell, Senator Thom Tillis of North Carolina and Senator Deb Fischer of Nebraska. McAuliffe is no stranger to Missouri with former and present clients including Senator Kit Bond and Congressman Sam Graves.

Have I Got A Deal For You?

Britton Banner is for sale, asking price $405K.  “Britton Banner has been around a very long time, but with a bit of marketing the potential is unlimited. It brings in a steady 6 figure income with zero marketing and owner operated. With 3 employees and some marketing this company will bring in millions for the new owner. The facility is perfect for it, the market is perfect for it, and the best part about it is that no one knows it exists. Kansas City and the entire nation needs to know about it, and they can with the new owners in place and outbound dials made by in house employees. We have the math on what the company will do, serious inquires only.”   See the ad here.

Danforth Hearts Parson

Jack Danforth is in the large contributions this morning giving Sen. Mike Parson a $10K contribution for his gubernatorial run.  The amount is less important than the statement.  Danforth is still the standard-bearer for the old school (more moderate) Republicans, and can provide an entry to the St. Louis GOP money that looks a little nervously at the hot and heavy far-right Republicans.

Bradshaw End Exploration Phase

Brad Bradshaw announced his formal candidacy for lieutenant governor.  The doctor/lawyer bid had been operating under an “exploratory” committee.

Bradshaw is largely unknown in political circles, but Dems might be find giving him a pass for that slot because Dems believe has the capacity to self-fund a statewide race.  With Republicans set for a primary – Sinquefield-backed Bev Randles and incumbent Peter Kinder right now – a self-funding “outsider” could be just what’s needed to take this spot from the GOP.

From the Press Release:  Bradshaw has hired Marcus Leach to manage his campaign, making him the first African American to manage a campaign for either Governor or Lieutenant Governor in Missouri. Leach was a member of Jason Kander’s campaign team during his bid for Secretary of State, and has since managed a number of successful candidate and issues campaigns in Missouri.

Dr. Bradshaw has also hired Bill Romjue to serve as his Senior Advisor.  Romjue has previously served in top staff positions for Jimmy Carter, Chuck Robb, Bob Kerrey, Gary Hart, Bob Strauss, Dick Gephardt, Bill Clinton, John Edwards, and Joe Biden.

The campaign has also retained attorney Bradley Ketcher…

Turk for Senate 8?

Jacob Turk wrote to supporters last week to announce that he’s joined National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) as their membership representative in Jackson, Lafayette, Saline, Cass, Johnson and Pettis counties.

But more interesting is that talk that Turk may run for the Will Kraus Senate 8 seat in 2018…

Today’s Events

From Mary Scruggs’ indispensable events calendar:

Rep. Keith English / Kelly Engagement Party – Bones – upon adjournment

Lobbyists Registrations

Curtis Griffith deleted UCB Inc.

Joseph Treadway deleted Environmental Federation of Missouri.

$5K+ Contributions

Ashcroft for Missouri - $20,000 from August Busch III.

Hanaway for Governor Inc - $25,000 from Menlo Smith.

United Food & Commercial Workers Local #655 Elect Political Action Fund - $6,448 from UFCW Local 655.

Missourians for Fair Taxation - $56,000 from Missouri Association of REALTORS.

Parson for Missouri - $10,000 from John Danforth.

Birthdays

Happy birthday to Abram Messer (33).