Monday, November 17, 2014

Ferguson Monday?

New York Times has an article about the protestor and other preparations for ta grand jury decision announcement.  Read it here.  St. Louis County Prosecutor Bob McCulloch has said mid-to-late November would be the time for the announcement.  So we’re in the window as of today.

And one savvy lobbyist looking, at the temperatures (today’s high is supposed to be 27F in St. Louis; tomorrow’s high is forecast at 28F), suggested the best way to cool emotional responses is to have chilly Mother Nature on your side.  We’ll see…


Dominoes With AG Race

Besides the potentially impending grand jury announcement, the other main topic of chatter remains the attorney general’s race and associated dominoes.


First on the Republican side, one observer agrees with my assessment that Josh Hawley is highly unlikely to give Sen. Kurt Schafer a serious challenge, but “never underestimate the ability of the religious right to go nuts… [Still] I am thinking Hawley isn’t skilled enough at politics to do this. Tim Jones would have been… And Schaefer then becomes a fairly strong general election candidate… Not bad for a guy who likely only got to the Senate because his opponent (Chuck Graham) got a DUI.”


Meanwhile in the bid to replace Sen. Scott Sifton in Senate 1, one Dem mentioned a name I hadn’t heard in quite a while… former state representative Joan Barry, saying that the “Barrys still own a condo in Jeff City…”
While another observer wonders where the education establishment would be in a possible Democratic primary, reminding me that Rep. Vicki Englund voted for the education bill.  I think Dems will want – above all else – to avoid a primary.


Finally, if Rep. Marsha Haefner is tapped as the Republican nominee in Senate 1, who wins?  Rep. Lincoln Hough.  He’s be my odds-on favorite to take Budget Chair in January 2017.  Never too early to start thinking about those things you know….



As look as we’re opening the books on 2016. Here’s the first glance at the state senate races…

Senate 1 – toss-up without an incumbent, Dem lean with Sifton staying put.

Senate 3 – Democratic district, but Republican incumbent Sen. Gary Romine would be early favorite to hold as incumbent.

Senate 5 – Safe Dem re-election for Sen. Jamilah Nasheed.

Senate 7 – Safe Dem re-election for Sen. Jason Holsman.

Senate 9 – Safe Dem re-election for Sen. Kiki Curls.

Senate 11 – Safe Dem re-election for Sen. Paul LeVota.

Senate 13 – Safe Dem re-election for Sen. Gina Walsh.

Senate 15 – Battleground district without incumbent Sen. Eric Schmitt, and St. Louis County’s slowly Democratic tilt.  Reps. Rick Stream and Mike Leara both been mentioned as potential Republican candidates.

Senate 17 – Republican Sen. Ryan Silvey did a famously good job of freezing out opposition in this swing district in 2012; no reason 2016 will be different.

Senate 19 – Republican Sen. Kurt Schaefer termed.  Rep. Steven Webber expressed interest in the recent CDT article (see it here).  He could face Rep. Caleb Jones in a toss-up race.

Senate 21 – Republican Sen. David Pearce termed.  This is the sort of district that Dems used to put up a fight for, but recently their recruiting has gone lame.  We’ll see…

Senate 23 – Pro Tem Tom Dempsey termed.  Rep. Anne Zerr in line to succeed him.

Senate 25 – 2014 made it look like the bootheel was slipping out of the grasp of Dems.  We’ll see if they pitch a fight here, or concede early to the re-election of Sen. Doug Libla.

Senate 27 – Safe GOP re-election for Sen. Wayne Wallingford.

Senate 29 - Safe GOP re-election for Sen. David Sater.

Senate 31 - Safe GOP re-election for Sen. Ed Emery, with a far outside chance that Dems recruit the right candidate and Emery does a Todd Akin flop.

Senate 33 - Safe GOP re-election for Sen. Mike Cunningham.


So… the math is that the only Dem seat Republicans can possibly take is Senate 1.  And Dems have a few places to take shots.  Early line: Dems +1.


Power Babies

Lobbyists/lawyers Betsy Ledgerwood AuBuchon and Rich AuBuchon welcomed Connor James AuBuchon over the weekend.


Also, birthing over the weekend were Ryan and Sarah Hart, bringing in Eva Grace Hart.  Ryan is deputy chief of staff to Congressman Jason Smith, and grand-pop is MO Co-ops Assn’s Barry Hart.


Ebola and MO

Us Senator Chuck Schumer says that the federal government should reimburse cities and states for Ebola outlays.  See it here.

That brought this response from one MOScout reader: “Washington is our ultimate backstop regarding timely big issues - like ebola – that could be largely curbed through local precautions. I mean, local and individual education plus common-sense moves, like not coughing and sneezing on others and using sanitary practices to prevent getting sick.

I'd like to see how many right wingers who oppose expanding Medicaid because of saddling debt onto future generations would balk at making DC - meaning the reviled Barack Obama - reimburse and pay for state and local Ebola precautions. Those US travelers who have recovered from Ebola were, to a person, in excellent general health beforehand, by all accounts.

Medicaid expansion - boosting more Missourians' general health - will do more to curb all manner of diseases and afflictions than a bunch of pols crowing about a single virus. Let's watch for statehouse hacks who say Ebola is Obama/Washington's fault and therefore DC should pay up, who then turn around and oppose Medicaid expansion that won't be fully implemented before they are mostly termed out and won't bear political consequences…”


Reverend Marlon Marshall?

ABC News ran a story on some embarrassing emails that make Dem operatives looks like immature frat boys.  One of them is Marlon Marshall, a St. Louis native, who was General Election Director in Missouri for Obama for America.  See the story here.


The private emails were provided to ABC News by a Democrat on the listserv who has worked alongside Mook and Marshall on previous campaigns. The person who provided the emails is, like the vast majority of those on the listserv, supportive of Hillary Clinton, but does not support the idea of Mook or Marshall holding leadership roles in a second presidential bid. They were provided on the condition of anonymity.

That the emails are emerging publicly reflects the ferocious intra-battle to populate the top positions of an expected Clinton campaign…

The following year, in confirming news that he would be taking a new job that would include a move to Chicago, Marshall offered special thanks to Mook.

“First, the mafia never separates, it just continues to grow and expand and move into other states in order to destroy Republicans,” he wrote. “A special thanks to none other than the namesake himself, Deacon Robby Mook. Without him, there would be no mafia and I for sure know I would not have learned as much as I have in this business and have this opportunity.”

Mook responded by announcing “mandatory” attendance at a goodbye party for Marshall at a Capitol Hill bar.

“It's true: Marlon Marshall is leaving our fold. Today is the day the grownassman [sic] grows up and leaves for America's Second City. I know this prodical [sic] son will return to the mafia manger soon enough to smite Republicans mafia-style,” Mook wrote.

“If you can't be here in person, join me in spirit by sending your words of love and encouragement to the Most High Grown Ass Reverend Marlon D as he embarks on his pilgrimage. Please believe and obey the beard.”

Both Mook and Marshall have been discussed as potential Clinton campaign managers, should she run for president…


Lobbyist Registrations

From the Gate Way Group website:

Brian S Brown added National Organization for Marriage Inc.

Christina Lee added The Leukemia and Lymphoma Society.

Kelsey Robinson added Steven Carroll and Associates.

Sarah Rossi added ACLU of Missouri.

Blake Schofield added University of Missouri System.

Mark Schwartz added Schreimann Rackers Francka and Blunt LLC, and their clients.

Michael Hollman deleted The College Board.

Christopher W Byrd deleted Homebuilders Association of Greater Kansas City, City of Kansas City Missouri, and Christopher W Byrd PC.

Brent Hemphill deleted Tesla Motors Inc.

Rodney D Gray, Susan Henderson Moore, and Tami Holliday added Mitchell International; and deleted Fairpay Solutions Inc.

Stacey Haigh deleted Pyramis Global Advisors Holding Corp.

Mark F Habbas added Missouri Association of Nurse Anesthetists.

Jerry W Burch, and Cindy Pursley deleted Missouri Optometric Association.


$5K+ Contributions

Citizens for Steve Stenger - $10,000 from St. Louis Cardinals LLC.