Monday, October 20, 2014

Is There Anybody Out There?

I suffered a minor Blackberry catastrophe over the weekend, so if you called or texted I probably didn’t receive it.  Nor will I today at least.  I am hopeful I’ll have a solution soon, but for now please email – – instead of calling or texting.  Your thoughts are appreciated during this trying time….


Poll Crosstabs

The crosstabs from the Senate 22 poll are in the Special Reports section here.  The House races – all within Jefferson County – have much smaller samples and thus much higher margins for error.

Still it is worth noting Rep. Mike Frame looks safe while Republicans are up in both the Jeff Roorda and Paul Wieland House districts.  If Republican Rob Vescovo wins House 112 that’ll say something about labor’s grip on JeffCo as he’s a vocal supporter of “right to work.”  Meanwhile Rep. TJ McKenna, who I thought would be in trouble after his slim victory of 2012, looks okay, with very few undecideds in that race.


Ashcroft Gets $250K from MO Senate GOP

John “Jay” Ashcroft running in Senate 24 to replace Sen. John Lamping received a huge $250K check from the Missouri Republican Senate’s campaign committee over the weekend.  As we approach the final two weeks, this infusion ensures that he’ll have all the resources he needs.  They must have had polling showing it’s tight to commit the funds.

Democrat Jill Schupp immediately used the donation in a fundraising email blast: I am writing to let you know that my opponent, Jay Ashcroft, just reported a $250,000 contribution from the Republican Senate Campaign Committee. He has now received $550,000 from the Republican party.  We can't let the Republican party buy this election and continue shifting Missouri further and further to the right. We need to restore some balance to the Missouri Senate.  There are only 16 days left until Election Day. Please make a contribution today in any amount.


On Twitter, Democratic consultants Jim Ross and Richard Callow consider where the money is headed…

‏@publiceyestl: How could the Ashcroft campaign usefully spend $250K in 14 days? #Sen24

‏@jeross1776: 1,200 points even 1,000 of tv ads over two weeks takes Ashcroft over $250,000

‏@publiceyestl: Is he already up?

‏@jeross1776: yes and started the same day we did.

@publiceyestl: What is the matter with both of you?


Howerton to Retire?

Word is that the Senate’s well-respected administrator, Jim Howerton may be readying to retire.  He would join Secretary of the Senate Terry Spieler.  Together the two have formed the backbone of the smooth-functioning chamber, known for transcending the partisan bickering hat engulf the other side of the building.


MO Club’s 501c4 TV Campaign

MO Club for Growth’s latest ad campaign is odd in that it features low-tech advertisements supporting passage of Amendment 10, but the overall ad spending is huge.  You’d have expected a little flashier ads when you’re devoting $1.5 million to a buy.  That’s what the filing with the Missouri Ethics Commission says that they’re spending.  See it paperwork here.  See an example of the TV commercial here.

Rex Sinquefield has been the prime donor behind the Missouri Club for Growth, but they’ve chosen to obscure whether this is entirely his $1.5 or if there is any other donor stepping up.


Shoe for Family Farms

Former state senator Wes Shoemyer has started a new political action committee, Missourians for Family Farms.  See the Missouri Ethics Commission paperwork here.  Shoemyer was an outspoken opponent of the “right to farm” amendment.


The Rex Party

I wrote last week about how it appeared that Rex Sinquefield’s Grow Missouri was embarking on operations akin to a party apparatus – investing in voter files and GOTV tests.  Meanwhile the Missouri Republican Party has a cash balance that would make my palms sweat.

The same phenomenon is playing out nationally due to changes in the campaign finance laws.  The New York Times writes an article How Billionaire Oligarchs Are Becoming Their Own Political PartiesSee it here.

Pull Quote: The result was a massive power shift, from the party bosses to the rich individuals who ran the super PACs (as most of these new organizations came to be called). Almost overnight, traditional party functions — running TV commercials, setting up field operations, maintaining voter databases, even recruiting candidates — were being supplanted by outside groups.


Lobbyist Registrations

From the Gate Way Group website:

Robert J Dollard added BNY Mellon.


$5K+ Contributions

Schupp for Senate - $35,000 from Missouri State Democratic Committee.

SEIU Missouri State Council PAC - $20,000 from SEIU Healthcare Missouri PAC.

Citizens for Steve Stenger - $10,000 from John Eilermann Jr.

RSLC-Missouri PAC - $10,700 from Republican State Leadership Committee.

Friends of Todd Richardson - $10,000 from Missourians for Excellence in Government.

Friends of Todd Richardson - $10,000 from Grown Missouri.

Gandhi for Prosecutor - $15,000 from Rodd Hillard.

MO Democratic State Committee - $50,000 from Claire McCaskill.

Elect Ed Schieffer for State Senator - $10,000 from Missouri State Democratic Committee.

Committee to Elect Jeff Roorda - $60,000 from Missouri State Democratic Committee.

House Republican Campaign Committee Inc - $15,000 from Citizens for Elaine Gannon.

Citizens for Burlison - $5,240 from Bill D Burlison.

Ashcroft for Missouri - $10,000 from Committee to Elect Ron Richard.

Committee to Elect Jeff Roorda - $10,000 from Missouri State Democratic Committee.

House Republican Campaign Committee Inc - $15,000 from Friends of Gina Jaksetic.

House Republican Campaign Committee Inc. - $15,000 from Friends of Glen Kolkmeyer.

Citizens for Vicki Lorenz Englund - $6,250 from Missouri Democratic Party.

Ashcroft for Missouri - $15,000 from Committee to Elect Ron Richard.

Ashcroft for Missouri - $250,000 from Missouri Senate Campaign Committee.

Stuber for State Senator Committee - $25,000 from Missouri State Democratic Committee Legislative.

Lavender for State Rep - $6,250 from Missouri Democrat State Committee.


Happy Birthday

Happy birthdays to Rep. Ben Harris (38), and Kevin Gunn (44).