Tuesday, Election Day, November 4, 2014

What to Watch For Tonight

Here are the potential stories to watch for tonight…

What is the impact of Ferguson?

When the county executive race totals are returned, I’ll be looking at the north county municipalities with heavy African American populations.  Does Rick Stream pick up some support?  Will those residents angry at Bob McCulloch feel like this is their chance to have a voice, or feel disillusioned and stay home?

Can Republicans make a comeback in St. Louis County? 

It starts at the top of the ticket with the county executive race, but there are other places where the battle for St. Louis County still rages.  It’s the Democrats who have the long-term trend, but will Republican reclaim a little turf this year?

If Rep. Jill Schupp beats Jay Ashcroft in Senate 24, then Sen. Eric Schmitt is the only Republican state senator left in St. Louis County (except Dave Schatz who is mostly Franklin County and has some St. Louis County).  That’s the result of the trend – and also redistricting.  It’d be quite a change from just a few years ago when Jim Lembke, Jane Cunningham, and John Lamping were all with Schmitt in the Senate.

Also the House races to watch – Rick Stream’s old House district (House 90) has been slowly turning blue.  Do Dems finally take it this year without an incumbent to protect it?  And the never-ending grudge match between Rep. Vicki Englund and Cloria Brown in House 94 is another to watch.

Has the bootheel gone totally red?

In House 150, everyone (Republicans and Democrats alike) say that the Dems have a better candidate, however it’s a toss-up because the national Democratic Party is seen as so liberal that the local Democratic candidates are having a hard time distinguishing themselves as conservatives that would represent their district.

Who Will be Upset?

This cycle has a lot of potential upsets.  Here are some of the incumbents who could fall: Rep. John Mayfield is considered vulnerable.  Rep. Gary Cross has been targeted for this right to work stance.  Rep. John Wright has seen a huge infusion of HRCC resources in his MidMO swing district.  We’ve seen Dems spending in St. Charles testing strength of some Republican incumbents there. I expect a few shockers tonight. If I only knew which ones they’d be….

Is Jefferson County Trending Republican, or Gone Republican?

There are two schools of thought on Jefferson County.  The first is that it’s become more Republican, but it’s still Democratic.  Yes there’s a trend, but trends take time to take hold.  In this line of thinking, 2010 – when Reps. Mike Frame and Jeff Roorda were upset, and Ryan McKenna survived by two threads – was a harbinger of things to come, but things which haven’t come yet.

The other line of thinking is that the change is much farther along that most people realize.  Basically the folks who have been moving into Jefferson County in the last decade have had sensibilities more in synch with the Republican Party.  We’re finally at a point where they are a critical mass at the ballot box.  Tonight we’ll see….

Did Dems New Focus Pay Off?

This has been a different cycle for Democrats.  After getting stomped for last the decade in legislative races, they folded their separate House and Senate campaign committees into the party structure.  And after years of getting little more than a wish “good luck” from Governor Jay Nixon, Democrats actually had some leadership this cycle. US Senator Claire McCaskill sent $750K to the Missouri Democratic Party to help fund operations.  Attorney General Chris Koster sent $100K last year and $150K this year.  Even Nixon’s committee anted up $75K this year.  If the fuel was there, how did the vehicle handle when the rubber hits the road?  We’ll find out tonight.

 

FWIW

I am +1 GOP in the Senate, and +5 GOP in the House.  All together now: we’ll see….

 

MOScout Readers Pick’em

Here are the aggregate results from the MOScout Readers Pick’em Pool.  70 entries.

Who Will Win Senate 22?

Jeff Roorda – 31

Paul Wieland – 39

Who Will Win Senate 24?

Jay Ashcroft – 15

Jill Schupp – 54

Who Will Win House 35?

Gary Cross - 54

Ken Duvall - 16

Who Will Win House 90?

Gina Jaksetic – 12

Deb Lavender – 58

Who Will Win House 94?

Cloria Brown – 24

Vicki Englund – 46

Who Will Win House 114?

T.J. McKenna – 56

Becky Ruth - 13

Who Will Win House 150?

Walter Dearing – 26

Andrew McDaniel – 42

 

Governor Interviewed

St. Louis’ FOX affiliate reporter Elliot Davis gets an interview with the governor. More heat than light.  See it here.

 

Election Day Rituals

Patrick Lynn will be at Crown Candy?  Brad Green will be getting his car’s oil changed?...

 

Events Calendar

Powered by Mary Scruggs’ indispensable events calendar:

Rep. Keith English Birthday Party – Yacavellis – Florissant – 7-10 p.m.

Auditor Tom Schweich Election Watch – J Buck’s, Clayton.

Recorder of Deeds Jennifer Florida – Blackthorn Pub, St. Louis.

Sen. Maria Chappelle-Nadal – Cicero’s, University City.

Rep. Rick Stream – Hilton, Frontenac.

Rep. Jill Schupp – Chevy's, Olivette.

 

$5K+ Contributions

MO Democratic State Committee - $7,000 from Committee to Elect Bill Otto.

Friends of the 8th Congressional District - $10,000 from Noranda Aluminum.

Friends for Jennifer Florida - $10,000 from Slay for Mayor.

Friends of Rick Stream - $5,001 from Ann Wagner for Congress.

Friends for Jennifer Florida - $10,000 from Slay for Mayor.

Friends for Jennifer Florida - $15,000 from Rex Sinquefield.

Gina Mitten for State Representative - $5,863 from Missouri Democratic Party.

 

Happy Birthday

Happy birthdays to Rep Keith English (47), PD’s Tony Messenger (48), and Amy Gunn.