Tuesday, May 19, 2015

Starting to Look Ahead - Senate

Senate Outlook

The Senate’s partisan make-up will probably remain unchanged, though it’s possible for a swing of one seat in either direction.  Democrats are favored to pick up Senate 19, but it’s by no means a gimme.  And Republicans have chance to retake Senate 1, though again, it will be a battle.  Everything else looks to remain stable, barring any new developments.

Senate seats that won’t change party…

Senate 3 – Republican incumbent Gary Romine – should be a swing district, but Dems have shown zero recruiting ability.

Senate 5 – Democratic incumbent Jamilah Nasheed – safe D.

Senate 7 – Will Jason Holsman run for higher office? – safe D.

Senate 9 – Democratic incumbent Kiki Curls – safe D.

Senate 11 – Mike Sanders planning to make Paul LeVota’s re-elect difficult? – safe D.

Senate 13 – Democratic incumbent Gina Walsh – safe D.

Senate 15 – Eric Schmitt termed. Republican primary – safe R.

Senate 17 – Republican incumbent Ryan Silvey – not a safe district, but Silvey makes it a safe R seat.

Senate 21 – David Pearce termed – likely safe R.

Senate 23 – Tom Dempsey termed.  Republican primary – safe R.

Senate 25 – Republican incumbent Doug Libla – safe R.

Senate 27 – Republican incumbent Wayne Wallingford – without super Dem recruit, safe R.

Senate 29 – Republican incumbent David Sater – safe R.

Senate 31 – Republican incumbent Ed Emery – safe R.

Senate 33 – Republican incumbent Mike Cunningham – safe R.

Possible Dem pick-up

Senate 19 – Kurt Schaefer termed.  Democrats running Rep. Stephen Webber have an attractive candidate.  Republicans could have an equally credible candidate in Rep. Caleb Jones, but the district leans in the Ds favor.

Possible Republican pick-up

Senate 1 – With Scott Sifton seeking higher office, Republicans have a chance to steal this one back.  Rep. Marsha Haefner made an unforced error by telling AP she was 100% with Diehl just hours before he resigned, but she’s still a formidable candidate while Ds may have a primary.

Starting to Look Ahead - House

Democrats should pick up some seats this cycle in the House.  I know, I know, famous last words.  They have been on such a losing streak, it’s hard to imagine them turning it around.  Democrats have a large advantage though: they have lost most of the battleground district in the last couple of cycles, so there are very few places where they’re on the defensive.  The Republicans’ advantages remain: better recruiting, better fundraising, and better organization.

Seats that Republicans picked up in the off-presidential cycle may be harder to keep with a larger (and more Democratic turnout) in 2016.

Here are some districts to watch.

House 41 - Randy Pietzman (R), first-term rep in swing district.

House 47 – Chuck Basye (R), first-term rep in swing district.

House 70 – Bill Otto (D), very tight election last time.

House 94 – Cloria Brown (R), the textbook example of a swing district that changes with turnout.

House 95 – With Marsha Haefner (R) presumably running for Senate, this swing district could be a fight.

AND

Back for a second cycle in the center ring…. Jefferson County.  Republicans have insisted that it’s been turning R fast, while Dems hope that 2016 will show a reversion due to turnout in a presidential year.

Those races to watch – Rs on defense in all:

House 111: Incumbent Shane Roden (R) vs. former Rep. Michael Frame (D).

House 112: Incumbent Rob Vescovo (R) vs. Robert Butler (D).

House 114: Incumbent Becky Ruth (R) vs. former Rep. T.J McKenna (D).

eMailbag: MRL’s PQ Whining

Former staffer: “Funny MRL weighs in on the PQ. When I worked in the senate, no organization bugged us about using the PQ more than MRL. And it wasn't even close. At one point they threatened to rate us negatively for our inaction….”

Abandoning the Laffer Curve

With the evidence from Kansas’ budget deficit on the heels of Sam Brownback’s tax cuts, are Republicans backing away from the runaway rhetoric of “lower taxes = higher revenues?”

Arthur Laffer’s original theoretical argument never promised it as an axiom, yet it became of dogmatic tenet of being a good conservative.  That may be changing.  See it here.

Lobbyists Registrations

Steven Tilley deleted St. Louis Metropolitan Taxicab Commission.

Kim Tuttle deleted Missouri Association of Rehabilitation Facilities.

Birthdays

Happy birthdays to Rep. Gary Cross (60), former Sen. Chuck Purgason (55), and civvie St. Louis Charles Lowenhaupt (68).