Friday, November 1, 2013

The One-Year-Out Indicator

Welcome to November.  We’re about a year away from the 2014 General Election.  

I went back yesterday and skimmed through campaign finance reports for statewide races for the past several cycles.

The year-out cash on-hand number for candidates (as shown in the October quarter from the year before the election) is a very good indicator for success.  In fact it’s a better indicator than the overall amount raised by the end of the election.

In every case but two whomever had more cash on-hand one year out won the election.  (The two exceptions were in 2004, and both had relatively equal cash on-hand.  Claire McCaskill had $1.3 million on-hand to Matt Blunt’s $1.2 million; and Bekki Cook had $109K on-hand to Peter Kinder’s $102K.)

Another interesting pattern is that several of the races that ended up with double-digit margins of victory occurred where the losing candidate didn’t have a committee in place yet by the October report. 

This is not surprising in the obvious landslide cases like Robin Carnahan over Mitch Hubbard in 2008, or McCaskill over Al Hanson in 2002.  But also higher profile candidates who ultimately raised plenty of money still suffered tremendously when they embarked on their race “late.”   For example, Nixon’s twin wins over Dave Spence in 2012, and Kenny Hulshof in 2008.  Nixon had $2.7 million on-hand and Hulshof hadn’t started his gubernatorial campaign committee yet in October 2007.  In October 2011, Nixon had $4.2 million in the bank.

That early lead, even when it’s not ultimately sustained, may have consequences in other aspects of the campaign.  In several cases the loser did close the gap financially, yet still lost.  For example, Mike Gibbons ultimately hit money parity with Chris Koster in 2008; the same with Catherine Hanaway outraising Carnahan in 2004.  Still both lost.

Perhaps the winners reach their dollar target earlier and can focus on voter communication and GOTV efforts?  Food for thought…

Anyway, if nothing else from this… go ahead and bet the house: Auditor Tom Schweich ($506K on-hand) is going to beat Rep. Jay Swearingen ($18K on-hand).

Follow-Up on MHA Questionnaire

From the eMailbag… “MHA’s survey is a joke.  It’s half about Medicaid Expansion and half about Tort Reform.  So, basically, Ds will be for expansion and Rs for tort reform.  What good is a bunch of 50/50 surveys?  I and many others have already thrown it away.”

Richard Floats New Gun Bill

Sen. Ron Richard posted proposed legislation for a new gun nullification bill yesterday.  See it here.  Richard joined Pro Tem Tom Dempsey and Senate Democrats to sustain Governor Jay Nixon’s veto of last session’s bill.

David Lieb’s AP article about this quotes Richard saying that this will be a top priority for the Senate.  Read it here.

Pull Quote: “The gun legislation ‘will be the first bill Tom is going to send to committee, and it will be the first bill that we do on the floor and we'll stay on it until we get it done,’ Richard said.”

What This Means

No mnemonic acronyms this year like the Speaker’s “three E” agenda or Dempsey’s B-I-G.  Nope between the Grow Missouri organization mobilizing to put forth a new tax cut bill right away in the House, and Richard declaring that the gun bill is the Senate’s first priority, next session will be mostly clean-up and rehash of last session. 

More on the NBC/WSJ Poll

Yesterday I mentioned a NBC/WSJ poll which showed both President Barack Obama and the Republican Party at historic low approval ratings.

But one reader pointed out a few other interesting questions from that poll…

First, huge anti-incumbency sentiment…

Q9 In the next election for U.S. Congress, do you feel that your representative deserves to be reelected, or do you think that it is time to give a new person a chance?

Deserves to be reelected ........... 29

Give new person a chance ........ 63

Not sure ...................................8

And second, a very different perspective between Republicans and Democrats on whether they want compromise...

Q13a Do you want Democratic leaders in the House and Senate to make compromises to gain consensus on the current budget debate, or do you want them stick to their positions even if this means not being able to gain consensus on the budget?

 

Democratic Respondents

Make compromises............................................. 68

Stick to their positions......................................... 23

 

Independent Respondents

Make compromises............................................. 71

Stick to their positions......................................... 18

 

Republican Respondents

Make compromises............................................. 46

Stick to their positions......................................... 47

McCaskill Wins On Ipads During Take-Off

The press release: “U.S. Senator Claire McCaskill today scored a win for travelers, as the Federal Aviation Administration finally embraced the expanded use of portable electronic devices on airplanes…

“McCaskill was personally briefed this morning by FAA Administrator Michael Huerta on the status of the committee’s report—and the FAA’s plans to work with the airline industry to quickly relax existing regulations—a process that the FAA believes could be largely completed by the end of the year. During their conversation, McCaskill thanked Huerta for the FAA’s effort and urged the agency to move quickly on the implementation of new standards.

“With attention now shifting to the airlines, who must submit plans to the FAA regarding how they will implement expanded use of personal electronic devices on flights, McCaskill expressed a need for continued urgency…”

$5K+Contributions

Citizens for Riddle - $10,000 from Ameren Missouri.

House Republican Campaign Committee Inc. - $12,950 from Family Pharmacy Inc.

Committee for Research Treatments and Cures - $10,000 from Walter Porter.

Freedom Incorporated - $20,000 from Government Policies Foundation Inc.

Missourians for Tim Jones - $10,000 from Lewis & Clark Leadership Forum.

Missourians for Tim Jones - $10,000 from Rivertown Enterprises Inc.

Notes on Money

As the representative from Callaway County, Rep. Jeanie Riddle has been a strong supporter of Ameren during her legislative tenure.

Family Pharmacy Inc is the retail pharmacy chain owned by Rep. Lynn Morris.

Government Policies Foundation is the recently created non-profit which is opposing the Jackson County research tax.

Birthdays

Happy birthday to former Rep. Susan Carlson (Saturday).

Sunday: Rep. Kevin McManus (34), and Citizens for Modern Transit’s Kim Cella.

MOScout News

In my continual, relentless, nevereverending pursuit of excellence, I will be trying a new email delivery system next week.  Let me know if you like it, hate it, don’t notice it etc.  Thanks.