Monday, March 31, 2014

Recruiting By the Numbers

There are 54 House districts in which no Democrat filed.  Gimmes.  On the other side of the ledger there are 22 House districts with no Republican filed.

Some wondered how this disparity measures up historically.  So I went through the last several cycles. 

Last cycle, 2012, there were 52 uncontested Republicans; 29 uncontested Democrats.  That’s about the same ballpark as this year, though it looks like Republicans had a slightly stronger draw this year than two years ago.  In 2012, Republicans netted a +3 pick-up.

2010: 42 uncontested Republicans, and 28 uncontested Democrats.  (+17 seats for Republicans, crazy good year for them.)

2008: Reversal! In that big Democrats year… 50 uncontested Democrats and 27 uncontested Republicans. (+3 seats for Democrats.)

2006: 41 uncontested Democrats and 19 uncontested Republicans.  (+5 seats for Democrats.)

2004: 28 uncontested Democrats and 38 uncontested Republicans. (+7 seats for Republicans.)

HRCC $$$$

House Republicans believe they have a chance to beat their record fundraising from the 2012 cycle.  The ingredients to it would be possible contributions from their congressional delegation, as well as their uncontested caucus members.  But also one has to wonder if what role will be played by the absence of any competition for dollars – no presidential, US Senate or now even auditor’s race.  There’s not really anyplace else for Missouri Republican donor dollar to go except into legislative races – or municipal bonds…

Schaefer on Wrong Side of GOP Hobby Lobby Issue?

With the Hobby Lobby issue being argued before the US Supreme Court, the issue of employer contraception coverage mandate has jumped into the hyper-partisan arena of ObamaCare.  And one observer wonders if this could be Sen. Kurt Schaefer’s “single greatest liability in a Republican primary.”

Schaefer for the only Republican legislator to vote to sustain Governor Jay Nixon’s veto of a bill last session which would have expanded the religious exemption for providing insurance which cover birth control.

See the vote as reported in the Post-Dispatch here.

Silvey, Vice-Chair of Approps

Sen. Ryan Silvey was named Vice-Chair of the Senate Appropriations Committee last week.  He’ll take that spot from Sen. Scott Rupp who is expected to be confirmed to the Public Service Commission this week.

Silvey was Budget chair during his tenure in the House.  This move sets him up as the natural successor to Sen. Kurt Schaefer.  Schaefer is termed in 2016. If this extrapolation holds then Silvey would have a full four-year term as Approps Chair.

Silvey, Medicaid Expansion Compromiser?

Michael Mahoney reports that Sen. Ryan Silvey is working on a “private option” Medicaid expansion bill.  Read it here.

Pull Quote: “The plan is similar to one now in place in Arkansas, Iowa and Pennsylvania. The plan would permit the uninsured to use state health care law money, provided for Washington, to buy private insurance coverage. Silvey objected to Medicaid expansion because he fears the state budget can’t handle it. Silvey, however, believes the state’s Medicaid system has to be reformed.

In an opinion piece earlier this week in the Springfield News Leader newspaper, Silvey wrote doing nothing on the issue is not an option.”

Right to Work Bits

Catholic Archbishop Robert Carlson and other religious leaders join the anti-right to work coalition.  See it here.

And in the Post-Dispatch today (my thanks to John Combest for the link), Marie French reports that right to work will be a close vote in the House.  Read it here. 

My favorite quote from the piece is term-limited Rep. Jeff Grisamore says he “undecided,” and that he’s prefer to not have to vote on the measure.  But also “I’d vote no if they have enough votes to pass it.”   If that sounds like an odd formulation, here’s the translation.   He’ll vote No, if leadership doesn’t need him to pass it.  But if they do, well bets are off, or maybe bets are on that he’ll do as leadership needs him to do.

And that’s the crux of the vote.  How many Republican state representatives, lukewarm as they might be, will be “team players” and walk the line for leadership when the

And

Also thanks to the peerless John Combest… AP says that the Senate may go back to the criminal code bill this week despite Governor Jay Nixon’s protestations that the bill is too big.  See it here.

Fundraising Calendar

Today’s fundraising events from Mary Scruggs’ indispensable events calendar:

Rep. Jeff Roorda’s Birthday Reception – FOP Lodge, 715 Jefferson – 5-7 p.m.

Lobbyist Registrations

From the Gate Way Group website:

Richard M Aubuchon, Rodney Gray, Tami Holliday, Peter Levi and Susan Henderson Moore added Kansas City Arts Community.

Jewell D. H. Patek added RKV Technologies.

Greg N Johnston added Amikids.

$5K+ Contributions

Lewis & Clark Regional Leadership Forum - $12,000 from Thirty & 141 LP.

Lewis & Clark Regional Leadership Forum - $12,000 from James Murphy.

Committee to Elect Dean Dohrman State Representative - $5,001 from Citizens for Hoskins.

Friends of Cloria Brown - $5,001 from Friends of Diehl.

Friends of Cloria Brown - $5,001 from Citizens for Marsha Haefner.

Committee to Elect Chris Carter Sr. - $5,014 from Citizens for Maria Chappelle-Nadal.

MO Republican Party - $55,000 from Peerless Development LLC.

Dooley for St. Louis County - $100,000 from Jeanne C Sinquefield.

MO Leadership Committee - $10,000 from Engler for Missouri.

Professional Firefighters of Central St. Louis County PAC - $7,500 from Creve Coeur Firefighters Outreach Fund.

Friends of Scott R Clark - $5,700 from Scott Clark.

Missouri Early Voting Fund - $10,000 from SEIU Missouri/Kansas State Council.

Missouri for Koster - $8,000 from Michael Hall.

Missouri for Koster - $8,000 from IAP Reinsurance Company.

Missouri for Koster - $8,000 from APA 1 Reinsurance LTD.

Missouri for Koster - $6,000 from Athens Adminstrative Company LLC.

Missouri for Koster - $8,000 from MHA Political Action Committee for Health.

Kander for Missouri - $10,000 from UFCW Local 655 Elect Political Fund.

Spooner for Senate - $30,000 from Rich Galocki Jeanne Rhode.

Professional Firefighters and Paramedics of Franklin County PAC Fund - $5,185 from Employees and Supporters of Meramec Ambulance District.

Notes on Money

Today is the deadline for the quarter.  Some unopposed legislators have started sending money to folks they’re supporting.  Interesting to see Sen. Maria Chappelle-Nadal to get involved in the Rep. Josh Peters’ primary (against him).

The second big check to Jack Spooner in Senate 24.  That’s $50K from those folks to him.  We’ll see if Jay Ashcroft answers with some big checks…

And Sinquefield money again to St. Louis County Executive Charlie Dooley…

Birthdays

Happy birthday to former Rep. Allen Icet (57).