Wednesday, February 5, 2014

Source: Republican House RTW Whip Count 85

Tipster from within the House Republican Caucus… “Latest whip count on Right to Work is 85.  One labor lobbyist has the count at 84.  Looks like my prediction of 88 just a couple of weeks ago was high…”

If these numbers are correct then the margin for error to pass right to work is much tighter than I’d previously thought.    82 votes are required for final passage in the House.

Question: Will Speaker Tim Jones push for a vote that could be politically damaging to his caucus members if there’s a chance that it would not even pass, much less get stalled in the Senate?  Answer: We’ll see…..

Nixon Have Another Target?

Democrats are still coming to grips with the great Nixon giveaway… his calling of special elections for House seats insuring Republicans of a supermajority for veto session.

One theory – which sounds a little far-fetched to me – is that Nixon’s team expects to reduce the Senate majority to a level where they can’t override the veto.  To accomplish that, they’d have to pick off one more Republican senator after Sen. Scott Rupp goes to the Public Service Commission.

The name that’s mentioned is Sen. Brian Nieves.  It’s hard to imagine that Nieves, who revels in bellicose anti-Democratic rhetoric would accept being a pawn in such a situation.  But probably stranger things have happened.

Among the conspiracy theorists, this would ease the way for Speaker Tim Jones to replace Nieves and give him a platform for the next two years before his 2016 statewide run.

Senate 12 Follow-Up

It’s said that Sen. Brad Lager is supportive of Dan Hegeman and is helping to line up support for him among the northwest House delegation.  One observer thinks with Lager’s help Hegeman might see large contributions from Lager supporters like Stan Herzog.  That kind of money could give Rep. Delus Johnson second thoughts. 

Some Republicans think Johnson’s bid is a long shot and would rather that he stays in his House seat.

Bar Starting Early Defense?

Watching the weather updates last night, I saw a TV commercial defending “The Missouri Plan.”  I skimmed through the FCC’s political ad buy reports and didn’t see any trace of a buy.  The website that the ad references appears to have been active during the last ballot initiative.  The website is paid for by The Missouri Bar.

Similar petitions have been filed with the secretary of state’s office again this cycle, so perhaps the Missouri Bar is doing some preemptive defense maneuvers here.

Cynthia Watch

Cynthia Davis’ latest email blast – see it here – is full of exciting anecdotes… “While I was at the store this week, I noticed some items scanned at a higher price than what was marked on the shelf.  I had a choice.  I could either not buy the items or I could ask a manager to follow me back to the shelf to verify the price.  My first thought was to skip it because there was a long line of other customers behind me (and one never knows if they will remember this next election!).  However, I ended up getting the manager because I knew I was correcting the price for the hundreds of others who might be in the same predicament.”

Will she run in Senate 2?  Won’t she run?...

Digging a Little Deeper

I looked through the geographic breakdowns of the poll we did last week and most of it shows what you might expect. 

For example, the metro areas (Kansas City and St. Louis) are more supportive of the minimum wage increase, and Southwest Missouri is most supportive of getting rid of the state income tax.

One interesting number involved the ranking of issues.  Each area listed jobs are the top concern.  But the St. Louis Metro area had education coming in strongly as well with 25% saying it was the biggest concern.  All the other regions had education between 10-14%.  It’ll be interesting to see if Kansas City’s response chance in the future as they deal with the possibility of student transfers.

January Tax Revenues Drop

The press release: “State Budget Director Linda Luebbering today that 2014 fiscal year-to-date net general revenue collections increased 0.7 percent compared to 2013, from $4.54 billion last year to $4.57 billion this year. Net general revenue collections for January 2014 decreased by 9.5 percent compared to those for January 2013, from $779.5 million to $705.8 million.”

The bellwether Individual Income Tax Collections decreased 2.3% for the month.

Farm War Bits

NYTimes… Dateline Kansas City MO…. The Chinese are stealing our seeds!  Read it here.

And Attorney General Chris Koster tells California to mind their own beggness.  Read it here.

Help Wanted

Missouri Department of Transportation seeks attorney.  “This position is both office practice (advising, drafting contracts, legal memos/opinions, and real estate transactions) and litigation in circuit and federal court, as well as limited practice before the Administrative Hearing Commission.”  See the ad here.

Missouri Press Foundation seeks director.  “Works with the Missouri Press Foundation Board and MPF Fundraising Strategy Committee to develop the Foundation’s annual fundraising strategy and is responsible for its implementation. A minimum of 60 percent of the MPF Director’s time is spent on developing and implementing this strategy. Responsible for overseeing the daily operations of the Foundation and its programs...” See the ad here.

The Missouri House of Representatives seeks a computer information technologist.  “Duties include systems analysis and design, software development, testing and application support. This position assists in the development of web content, database maintenance, and automated workflow administration.”  See the ad here.

Lobbyist Registrations

From the Gate Way Group website:

Jon Galloway added Mortgage Research Center.

David McCracken and Richard McIntosh added Vigilant Solutions Inc.

Michael H Morris added Association of Retired Missouri State Employees.

Michael R Gibbons and Tricia Workman deleted City of Chesterfield.


Happy birthday to former Rep. Steve Hobbs (54).