Wednesday, October 23, 2013

The Case for a Kinder Victory

I would love to see a baseline poll of the 8th Congressional District.  I imagine that Lieutenant Governor Peter Kinder’s decades in the public spotlight would give him an enormous – say 30 point advantage – over incumbent Congressman Jason Smith.  Though that’s purely my imagination, I think most observers would agree that Kinder is the front-runner right now in name ID and therefore in any poll.

Kinder has made the point in radio interviews of calling himself the underdog, however.  This is based on the view that the rules of the game mean the establishment endorsements and the PAC money will flow more naturally to the incumbent: Smith.

So it seems to be the advantages of incumbency against the decade-long accumulation of name ID / goodwill which Kinder has built up. But there may be more…

One observer though thinks that Kinder has some very potent weapons at his disposal to counter the Smith offensive.  First, and foremost popular conservative radio personality Rush Limbaugh has offered his endorsement to Kinder previously.  If he does so again, that’s a pretty big voice in the 8th Congressional District.  Second, it undeniable that Kinder has the experience of living through brutal and bruising political battles and emerging each time unbroken.  That can’t be dismissed if this primary between “friends” takes a nasty turn…

More Thoughts from October Quarters

The GOP Three

The three Republicans who have been mentioned for attorney general are all in the same cash on-hand ballpark.  Sen. Eric Schmitt leads the pack with $764K.  He raised $171K without either the high-profile of Speaker Tim Jones, or the personal infusion of Sen. Kurt Schaefer.

Jones lead in fundraising with $235K raised for the quarter, though his expenditures of over $100K will have to be tamed across the next three years.

And the biggest question for Schaefer is whether he will continue to add his personal wealth to the war-chest.  My best sources on his $500K contribution do not believe it is a “bluff,” but rather an ante.  Still, he will need to spend more time fundraising to keep pace with Schmitt and Jones – or write more checks.

Local Ballot Questions

Here’s a quick listing of fundraising quarters for campaign committees organized around local issues on the ballot next month…

Citizens Who Care (In Support – Shall the County of Buchanan impose a county sales tax of one-quarter of one percent for a period not to exceed ten years for the purpose of providing emergency ambulance services) raised $15,650; spent $4,500 and has $11,150 on-hand.

Committee for Community Growth (In Support – Shall the Board of Education borrow money in the amount of $12,500,000 for the purpose of providing funds to prepay the existing lease financing to complete upgrades to district facilities.  Jefferson R-7 School District in Festus MO) was started after September 30 deadline for this quarter.

Committee for Research Treatments and Cures (In Support – 20-year, half-cent sales tax to recruit top medical researchers to Kansas City area hospitals) raised $1,009,705; spent $644,750; and has $314,954 on-hand.

Committee to Stop a Bad Cure (In Opposition – 20-year, half-cent sales tax to recruit top medical researchers to Kansas City area hospitals) raised $4,306; spent $3,999; and has $296 on-hand.

Citizens for Responsible Research (In Opposition – 20-year, half-cent sales tax to recruit top medical researchers to Kansas City area hospitals) raised $107,200; spent $97,424; and has $9,775 on-hand.

Yes for Clay County Constitution  (In Support – Approval of a new constitution for Clay County) raised $11,969; spent $8,970 and had $2,999 on-hand.

 

Citizens for Greene County (In Support – Shall the County of Green impose a local use tax of 1.25%.  A use tax return shall not be required to be filed by persons whose purchases from out-of-state vendors does not exceed $2,000 in a calendar year) raised $8,600; spent $0; and has $8,600 on-hand.

 

 

And

For those looking through Robert Rice’s campaign finance reports from his successful 2010 Nodaway County Prosecuting Attorney to find clues to his political backing, there’s not a lot.  Rice is at the center of the Maryville situation where sexual assault charges were dropped. 

He only raised about $7K.  Of that most – $3,000 – came from himself.  But the after that the biggest check was $1,000 from Congressman Sam Graves.

Bits

The proposed initiative petition for a sales and use tax to fund transportation is online at the secretary of state’s website.  See it here.

Missouri moves forward with a new drug for its executions.  Read it here.

New York Times op/ed talks about the various methods politicians may use to prime their fundraising.  Read it here.

Big groundbreaking yesterday… The release: “Gov. Jay Nixon today joined top officials from Monsanto in a roundbreaking event for the company's $400 million expansion at its Chesterfield Village Research Center.  Monsanto, a pioneer in bioscience and sustainable agriculture, anticipated creating an estimated 675 new jobs over the next three years through the expansion. The project is also estimated to create 700 construction jobs at peak construction.”

Dave Spence withdrew his nomination to the St. Louis County Police Board citing new intrusive background checks.  See it here.  You’d think Democrats would feel the dude was pretty well checked out in his run for governor by the Nixon op research folks.  Can’t imagine any further background check is really necessary.

eMailbag

“Either Tom Schweich or Catherine Hanaway should run for County Executive.  More natural anyway, they wouldn’t have to go through years of phony appeals to rural Republicans.  Wouldn’t have to learn to shoot guns either…”

$5K+Contributions

Citizens for Responsible Research - $22,000 from Brad Bradshaw.

Citizens for Responsible Research - $9,000 from Brad Bradshaw.

House Democratic Victory Committee - $7,500 from Southwestern Bell Telephone LP.

Lobbyist Registrations

From the Pelopidas website:

 

Elizabeth Lauber added CEMO LLC.

Birthdays

Happy birthdays to Rebecca McClanahan (52), and Bryan Pratt (41).