Tuesday, July 16, 2013

July Quarters

Yesterday the July fundraising quarters were due.  Here are some highlights….

Statewides

Governor Jay Nixon, with no apparent future path charted, raised $10K, spent $51K ($10K for Mizzou tickets?; and $4K monthly draw for Oren Shur), and has $386K on-hand.

Lieutenant Governor Peter Kinder raised $31K, spent $25K and has $53K on-hand.  He’s on a 2016 cycle.  The other option would be to primary Congressman Jason Smith next summer.  For that he’d need a federal committee, and probably have to pull the trigger by Labor Day.

State Auditor Tom Schweich raised $265K ($100K of that was from Sam Fox), spent $43K, and has $293K on-hand.  While this was the best quarter of any Republican, it wasn’t really very strong when you consider half of it came from one check, and he’s up for re-election next year, unlike Koster…

Attorney General Chris Koster raised $505K, spent $135K and has $781K on-hand.  Expenses included a $23K contribution to the Clinton Foundation, $32K to Hilltop and $30K to fundraiser Margaret Onken.  Three years out and doing a half-million is a very strong quarter from Koster. 

Secretary of State Jason Kander raised $72K and has $81K on-hand.  And State Treasurer Clint Zweifel raised $94K and has $82K on-hand.  Nothing to exciting here.  But also no hints from Zweifel about where his future is headed. 

Potential Statewides

The three Republicans who are most mentioned as possible statewide candidates in 2016…

Speaker Tim Jones raised $59K, spent $64K and finished with $628K on-hand.  He had a major fundraising event earlier this month that’s not on this report.

Sen. Eric Schmitt raised $44K, spent $7K, and finished with $603K on-hand.  Schmitt is a consistent fundraiser who keeps expenses down and builds his bottom-line.

Sen. Kurt Schaefer raised $64K, spent $3K, and finished with $80K on-hand.  Schaefer made the headline yesterday with his $500,000 personal contribution to bring his total into the same realm as the others.

I doubt these three end up in a primary.  Rather some of the fundraising gamesmanship may be aimed at negotiating leverage for when they draw their statewide slots.

And

Not everyone ecstatic about Schaefer ponying up for 2016… “In the last election members were giving him money late because he told them it was close.  He then crushed Mary Still and now we learn he would have had the money anyway… They feel like they wasted their money on the boy who cried wolf…”

Senate Races

Senate 2

Vicki Schneider raised $11K, and has $12K on-hand. 

Rep. Chuck Gatschenberger raised $12K, and has $7K on-hand.

Former Rep. Bob Onder raised $50K, spent nothing and has $50K on-hand.

Onder wins round one here.

Senate 4

Sen. Joe Keaveny raised $2K, and has $68K on-hand.  Keaveny’s in a safe Democratic district.  The only reason he’d need to raise money would be to stave off a primary.  Rep. Stacey Newman’s name makes the rounds from time to time on that score.  But she only raised $1,500 and has $4,299 on-hand.

Senate 10

Rep. Jeanie Riddle raised $16K, and has $123K on-hand.  And Rep. Ed Schieffer raised $11K, and has $7K on-hand.  With Sen. Jolie Justus termed, this seat comes into play next year.  Riddle is the favorite, but neither distinguished themselves this quarter.

Senate 12

Rep. Casey Guernsey raised $150, spent $9K, and has $2,500 on-hand. Rep. Mike Thomson raised $0, and has $50K on-hand. Former Rep. Bob Nance raised $0, and has $19K on-hand.

Three zero quarters in the Brad Lager seat which will be up next summer.

Senate 14

Sen. Maria Chappelle Nadal’s report wasn’t in yet.  There are grumbles of a possible primary here, but nothing so far.

Senate 22

Rep. Jeff Roorda raised $26K, and has $66K on-hand.  And Rep. Paul Wieland raised $21K and has $20K on-hand.  Two pretty mediocre quarters.  Roorda has slight money lead, but that $40K gap will quickly disappear when Republican campaign committee engages.

Senate 24

Democratic Rep. Jill Schupp raised $119K, and has $115K on-hand. Incumbent Sen. John Lamping raised $0 and has $7K on-hand.  All signs seem to be pointing toward Lamping not running for re-election.  Schupp meanwhile appears to be focused and working hard.  Advantage: Dems.

Senate 34

Sen. Rob Schaaf raised $23K and has $32K on-hand.  Nothing great from Schaaf this quarter, but no rumors on primaries either.  He need to be concerned about the general election though as this is a 50-50 district and Dems are actively looking for the right candidate.   She says she’s not even entertaining the idea, but former auditor Susan Montee could win this seat.

Speaker’s Race

Floor Leader John Diehl raised $106K, and has $294K on-hand.  He sent $50K contributions to other committees (almost entirely to HRCC).

Rep. Caleb Jones raised $40K, and has $103K on-hand.  He sent $2,135 in contributions to other committees (including $1K to Rep. Rocky Miller and $1K to Rep. Ken Wilson).

Campaign Committees

House Republican Campaign Committee raised $142K, spent $112K, and has $42K on-hand.  The expenses are a function of a staff (ED Scott Dieckhaus, Fundraiser Emilee Mudd, staffer John Ratliff), plus a few consultants (David Barklage and Dave Hageman’s Victory Enterprises).

House Democratic Victory Fund raised $38K, and has $42K on-hand.

Missouri Senate Campaign Committee raised $154K, and has $173K on-hand. 

And Senate Democratic Campaign Committee raised $9K, and has $28K on-hand.  Dems are on defense in Senate 10 (Justus termed), Senate 22 (McKenna termed) and on offensive in Senate 24 (Lamping in limbo) and Senate 34 (but no candidate).   This report should weaken the confidence of their candidates that there will be support from the SDCC.

St. Louis Quarters

Slay for Mayor Again?

St. Louis City Mayor Francis Slay raised $163K, and has $413K cash on-hand.  Compared with four years ago ($13K raised, and $181K cash on-hand), the mayor does not appear to be viewing this as necessarily his last term.

His former rival, Board President Lewis Reed raised $43K and has $44K on-hand. 

And among the other St. Louis City players… Alderwoman Lyda Krewson raised $50K and has $190K on-hand.  Collector of Revenue Gregg Daly raised $862 and has $496K on-hand.

While License Collector Mike McMillan raised $0 ($18K on-hand), and Recorder of Deeds Sharon Carpenter raised $9K and has $3K on-hand.  Those two city-wide seats may be open when they’re up for election next summer.

And in St. Louis County

Incumbent County Executive Charles Dooley raised $336K and has $336K on-hand.  This is slightly less than four years ago when Dooley’s cash on-hand was $429K

His potential Democratic primary challenger, Councilmember Steve Stenger, raised $185K and has $321K on-hand.  And with a Schaeferesque flourish, Stenger also dropped in a fresh $100K to augment his bank account.  But such personal boosts may not be as sustainable as an actual donor base.

$5K+Contributions

Citizens to Elect Kurt Schaefer - $500,000 from Catherine L. Schaefer Trust.

Citizens for Steve Stenger - $100,000 from Steve Stenger.

Friends of Peter Kinder - $10,000 from Cape Radiology.

Birthdays

Happy birthdays to MASW’s Jeanette Oxford (59), St. Louis On the Air’s Don Marsh (74), and AT&T’s John Sondag (the big 6-0).   And… “Go Time” for Rep. Todd Richardson… see it here.

Condolences

To Sen. Doug Libla on the passing of his mother.