Monday, June 3, 2013

Smith Will Win

Tomorrow is the special election to replace Jo Ann EmersonJason Smith will win.

Folks will probably be watching the margin of victory in an attempt to extrapolate some information about his strength in 2014 against a primary challenge.

Doing such, while an inevitable activity of the political class, may be misleading for a few reasons.  First, special elections are notoriously prone to odd bounces.  And this particular race has characteristics that could amplify that effect: four-way race with three drawing from the right side of the ballot; the only race on the ballot so turnout will be unique to this election.

Second, in so much as comparisons are made against the past, Smith obviously will compare unfavorably to Emerson’s recent thrashing of opponents.  She had two decades of incumbency on her side.

Finally, the more important question is what Smith’s strength will be in a year.  And that will require a dose of imagination to see how Smith will spend the next twelve months: raising money, working the district, cultivating relationships.

 

Republican House Watch

Diehl on the Road

Floor Leader John Diehl embarks on a schedule of two days on the road for the summer as he goes out and meets with caucus members over the state ahead of the speaker-elect race.  That vote is expected to take place over Veto Session in September.  (The speaker pro tem election (below) would happen over Summer caucus).

Riddle for Speaker Pro Tem?

The talk is that Rep. Jeanie Riddle will run for speaker pro tem against Rep. Denny Hoskins.  The outcome of that race is not immediately clear.  If Riddle wins, that will set in motion a series of committee chair dominoes.  Taking her spot as chair of Rules would be – according to these rumors – Rep. Caleb Jones.  Then Rep. Todd Richardson would succeed Jones as chair of General Laws.

Mees in House 93

Garrett Mees, fast on the heels of his Hancock Place School District Director victory (see it here), has filed a committee to run for House 93.  Mees is a Republican.  The incumbent is Democrat Bob BurnsSee committee here.

Petition Circulation Approved

From last week, the secretary of state’s office approved a petition for circulation relating to interest rates on loans.  See it here.  The petition was submitted by Jewel Patek.

Ambassador Carnahan?

If Carnahan – it’s said Tom Carnahan – is to win a prized ambassadorship from the Obama Administration is the time near?  Washington Post says that there will be announcements soon… Read it here.

Opening Round of 2016 Questions

Governor – If Tom Schweich wins re-election as Auditor in 2014, is he entitled to be the Republican gubernatorial nominee against Chris Koster?  Does he want that contest?

Attorney General – After spending millions on television in the last two cycles talking about his prosecutorial experience (and pummeling Ed Martin for his lack of it), has Chris Koster made that resume item a “must have” for 2016 AG candidates?  

Lieutenant Governor – Will Peter Kinder run for a fourth term?

Secretary of State – Does Jason Kander run for re-election or slide over to AG in 2016?  Will Shane Schoeller really attempt to return to the ballot?

Treasurer – is the David Pearce for Treasurer float for real?

Brown Reprimanded

Former state representative Cloria Brown was reprimanded by the Missouri Ethics Commission for a newspaper advertisements (jointly with Rep. Marsha Haefner) which didn’t have the paid for disclaimer.  See the consent order here.

VIBs (Very Important Bits)

KTRS’ McGraw Milhaven has started an online morning show. See it here.  On Thursday mornings he’s hosting a “roundtable discussion featuring Floor Leader John Diehl, Post-Dispatch’s Tony Messenger, and Stinson’s Jane Dueker.  As a chronicler of the St. Louis Catholic high school scene, it’s important I note that the then Miss Eilermann (of Visitation Academy) was once Mr. Diehl’s date at a DeSmet dance…

And which member of the Missouri Senate has Justin Timberlake’s “Suit and Tie” song (see it here) as a ring-tone on their phone…… Sen. John Lamping!

$5K+Contributions

Dooley for St. Louis County - $10,000 from AT&T.

Elect Bill White - $10,000 from Margaret Nichols.

MO State Teachers Assoc Legislative Impact Co - $7,500 from MSTA Central Region.

Friends of Steve Webb - $5,001 from Barry Aycock.

Onder for Missouri - $5,001 from John OBrien.

Lobbyist Registrations

From the Pelopidas website:

Greg N Johnston deleted Advantage Capital Partners.

Peggy Nalls deleted Credit Union Partnership, CUNA Mutual Group, Missouri Credit Union Association, and Missouri Corporate Credit Union.

Harry Gallagher and Heath C Clarkston added Tracfone Wireless Inc; and deleted Diamond Game.

Jeff W Glenn added Fleishman-Hillard.

John E Bardgett Jr and John Parris deleted John Britton Associates.

John Bardgett, Erika Leonard, Brian Millner, John Parris, Kimberly Tuttle, Brent Hemphill, and Kristian Starner deleted Major Brands Premium Beverage Distributors.

Birthdays

Happy birthday to former Reps. Ray Weter (68) and Ward Franz (the big 5-0), Abe Rakov, and Lynda Brotherton.