Friday, February 15, 2013

Eight Questions for Lincoln Days

When Republicans gather this weekend in St. Louis for their Lincoln Days celebration, here are the top questions for observers….

8. What’s the vibe on Monarch Fire District? 

As former Rep. Cole McNary and former Sen. Jane Cunningham duke it out to join the fire district board, is there a favorite among the faithful?   Do people view McNary as the union shill that Cunningham is portraying him as, or do they resent the disparagement of the former statewide candidate?  Or… is there no talk about it all?  Do they recoil from considering that their one-time champion in the Senate is now knee-deep in a hyper local race?

7. Who Uses This as a Coming Out Party for Senate 2014?

Is Rep. Jeanie Riddle ramping up in a hope to be unopposed for the new Senate 10 district?  Rep. Chuck Gatschenberger in Senate 2? Casey Guernsey in Senate 12?  Who are circulating with an eye to disrupt these plans?  And where are we on rumors of senators not running for a second term?  Does Sen. John Lamping sound like he wants a second term?  What about Sen. Dan Brown?

6. Is Akin Still the Scapegoat?

The political consensus in the days and weeks after the November elections seemed to coalesce that Todd Akin was the source and scourge of statewide Republican candidates.  H alienated moderates and undermined Republican attempts to keep their message on “ObamaCare” and the economy.  But then something very odd happened… Ed Martin – the statewide candidate who seemed most sympathetic to the Akin brand of politics – was elected Party Chair.  Suddenly the Akin refutation was cast into doubt.  Where are Republicans now on the Akin-ization of their Missouri Party?

5. Where are Last Cycle’s Losers Headed?

As noted in questions 6 and 8, a few are already on their way.  McNary is trying to join a fire district board, and Martin has taken a party post.  But what’s Shane Schoeller talking about?  Is Scott Rupp really on track to run for St. Charles County Executive?  Is there a role for John Brunner?  Dave Spence?  Are they looking at 2016?

4. Where is Last Cycle’s Survivor Headed?

What’s Peter Kinder’s next move?  Will Camp Kinder be winking when people bring up a possible CD-8 primary in 2014?  Will they assert that Kinder is the rightfully back at the front of the line to be gubernatorial candidate in 2016?  Will they just say that he’s focused on being lieutenant governor?  And is that just code for yet another term come 2016?

3. Who Are the New Statewide Comers?

Who are next field of contenders?  Sen. Kurt Schaefer and Eric Schmitt are mentioned as statewide material in 2016 when their senate tenures come to an end.  Speaker Tim Jones isn’t coy about his larger ambitions?  Who else will make a play for a grander stage?

2. Any Palace Intrigue With Jason Smith?

This weekend should be victory lap time for future Congressman Jason Smith.  But will it be, or will there be 2014 challengers already sprinkling poison in the mix. See Question 4 with regard to Kinder, but he’s only one of the possible spoilers.  Will Jason Crowell be making the rounds reminding people of his three point plan (Stop the spending! Stop the spending! Stop the spending!)?

1. Can Schweich Really Carry the 2016 Banner?

Most Republicans assume that Chris Koster will be the Democratic gubernatorial candidate.  They’ve watched him over maneuver life-long Democrats in a primary in 2008 and then vanquish Mike Gibbons, and then flatten Ed Martin in 2012 with seeming ease.  They fear Koster.  Is Tom Schweich up to the challenge of Koster?  Sure he will release some critical audits of the attorney general’s office between now and then, but that’s pretty weak ammunition.  Are Republicans looking elsewhere?

And

The Combest Bingo Card for Lincoln Days.  See it here.

Bits

The House budget doesn’t include Medicaid expansion money from the feds.  See it here.

Monsanto seed patent lawsuit, aka the Wes Shoemyer issue. Read it here.

Not politics, but seriously.  A meteor strike.  See it here.

Lobbyist Registrations

From the Pelopidas website:

Sarah Felts added Office of State Treasurer.

Victor R Scott II added Ameristar Casinos Inc.

Trent Watson added  US Travel Insurance Association.

Thomas J Campbell deleted The Doe Run Company.

$5K+ Contributions

Unite Here Tip Missouri State and Local Fund - $10,000 from Unite Here.

Bob Mainieri for Fire Board - $16,500 from Wentzville Professional Firefighters.

MO Democratic State Committee – $10,000 Anheuser Busch Companies.

Birthdays

Happy birthdays to former Rep. Tim Flook (46).

Saturday: Bob Parker (56).

Sunday: Pat Jakopchek (the big 3-0) and HRCC’s Jon Ratliff.

Congratulations

To Brian Grace on the birth of a daughter – Sylvia Mae Grace. 6 lbs 6 oz, born at 6:09am this morning.  See her here.