Friday, September 14, 2012

Will Akin Bring Down the Whole MO GOP This Cycle?

Some thoughts of one Republican insider on Todd Akin:

“The aftershocks from Todd Akin’s nomination and subsequent collapse are only starting to be felt, but they will continue to reverberate throughout the United States and, especially Missouri, for years to come.  How so?

“In Washington, D.C., Akin has effectively ended Texas Senator John Cornyn’s dream of taking the Pro-Tem slot away from Harry Reid.  Akin’s decision could be especially pivotal for President Obama and the U.S. Supreme Court if, during the next four years, any of the Republican justices decide to hang it up and allow President Obama to appoint and Harry Reid to confirm a left-leaning justice that will shift the balance of power on the court back to the left. Then, Everything that Todd Akin and his fellow conservatives hold dear could be wiped away with the stroke of a pen.

“Millions of dollars that was earmarked for Missouri’s Senatorial race by American Crossroads and the national RSCC is now flowing to other states and helping other candidates all across the country.

“In Missouri, the constant carpet-bombing by American Crossroads was taking a heavy toll on all Democrats.  Now that American Crossroads is dark the negative sentiments that voters have towards Democrats are starting to soften.  This is beginning to creep into the tracking polls.

“Who wins and who loses?  Dave Spence is the biggest loser because what was an outside shot at best has now become impossible.  Ed Martin who was within the margin of error against Chris Koster will now likely find his race out of reach. Every other statewide Republican candidate will likely be affected and that’s before we get to the House and Senate.

“The Republicans are already down one senate seat because of redistricting.  Lembke and Romine had tough draws and those races just got a lot tougher.  Everyone knows that Lembke has made a career out of winning close races, but people forget that Kevin Engler won the Senate seat in '04 by only a handful of votes over Dan Ward.  Akin’s antics and the loss of outside funding could cost the Republicans their two Senate seats and trickle down to the House where Republicans have gotten used to winning close races.

“The election of the Democratic candidates in these districts could have a profound impact on Missouri politics for years to come.  Akin will blame the party, but in the end he has nobody to blame but himself.”

Rasmussen: Romney Leads in Missouri

The latest Rasmussen poll puts Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney just slightly ahead of President Barack Obama, 48% to 45%.  The September survey of 500 likely Missouri voters has a margin of error of +/- of 4.5%.

This is just one of a couple of polls which show a close presidential race in Missouri.  One wonders if there’s any scenario in the next six weeks where the either side re-engages and Missouri comes back into play.

Gep Gives to Koster

In the $5K+ Contributions below, former Congressman Dick Gephardt sent $10,000 to Attorney General Chris Koster.  Oh, also, Koster reeled in a fresh $250,000 from the Democratic Attorneys General Association.

Workman on the Job

Trish Workman registered to lobby for the Missouri Whitetail Deer Association on 9/5/2012.  One week later (Wednesday) she appeared with them at the Joint Committee on Administrative Rules wherein the Committee rejected a Department of Agriculture rule that would have required a new and somewhat expensive test for chronic wasting disease.  It’s relatively rare for the legislature to reject a regulation put forward by an agency.

Both Departments of Agriculture and Conservation have some rules out there on chronic wasting disease which is firing up the Ag community.  Read more here.

Endorsement Parade

Dave Spence picked up Missouri Chamber of Commerce’s PAC endorsement.  MO Chamber prez Dan Mehan said that the PAC’s board made the endorsement “not without some debate” referencing the organization’s attempt to work with Governor Jay Nixon.  But he pointed to gubernatorial vetoes of “business-friendly” legislation as the crucial determinant.

Sen. Kurt Schaefer also took the MO Chamber endorsement.  But his real trick was to win that endorsement and also AFSCME’s.  Those two don’t often go together.

Sen. Claire McCaskill pulled down endorsements from firefighters and police unions.  Read it here.

Applicants for Southern District Appeal Court Vacancy

The Appellate Judicial Commission announced the following demographic information relating to applicants for the vacancy on the Missouri Court of Appeals, Southern District, created by the August 2012 retirement of Judge Robert S. Barney.

“There are 21 applicants for the vacancy. Six are women; there are no minority applicants. Eight are from outside Springfield.  Nine applicants work in the public sector, nine work in the   private sector and three work in both. Of those in the private sector, seven work in solo or small-firm practices. Of those in the public sector, five are state trial court judges. The applicants’ mean age is 52.”

The applicants are: Rob J. Aiken, Chantel L. Alberhasky, Douglas C. Bunch, Dale L. Davis, Deborah K. Dodge, Hon. David A. Dolan, James C. Egan, Kevin M. FitzGerald, Wendy E. Garrison, Hon. Douglas D. Gaston, Laura Jo Johnson, Victorine R. Mahon, James E. Meadows, Michael A. Moroni, Hon. Kelly W. Parker, John E. Price, James R. Sharp, Hon. Mary W. Sheffield, Stephen H. Snead, Stephen P. Sokoloff, Scott E. Thomsen.

eMailbag

Surprises on Contraceptive Vote

“Ward Franz and Scott Largent skipped town to thumb their noses at Missouri Right to Life. And it looked for a long minute like we weren't going to get to 109 as a result.”

Lobbyist Registrations

From the Pelopidas website:

Lyndi Munro added Novartis Vaccines and Diagnostics.

Scott L Simon added MODOT & Patrol Employees’ Retirement System.

$5K+ Contributions

Jay Nixon for Missouri - $10,000 from Unite Here TIP Missouri State & Local Fund.

MO Democratic State Committee - $40,000 from Democratic Senatorial Committee.

MO Democratic State Committee - $42,600 from Friends for Fallert.

MO Democratic State Committee - $19,000 from Komo for Missouri.

MO Senate Democratic Campaign Committee - $45,000 from United Food and Commercial Workers Active Ballot Club.

Missourians for Ed Martin - $5,100 from Stephen Notestine.

Missourians for Koster - $10,000 from Richard Gephardt.

Missourians for Koster - $250,000 from Democratic Attorneys General Association – Missouri.

House Republican Campaign Committee Inc - $10,700 from Citizens To Elect Susan Allen.

House Republican Campaign Committee Inc - $10,000 from MOSFA PAC Inc.

House Republican Campaign Committee Inc - $11,400 from Missouri Leadership Committee.

House Republican Campaign Committee Inc - $5,500 from Kansas City Power & Light.

Missouri Senate Campaign Committee - $10,000 from MOSFA PAC Inc.

Missouri Senate Campaign Committee - $10,000 from Parson for State Senate.