Monday, July 30, 2012

Post Poll

Over the weekend the Post-Dispatch announced poll results. (See it here.)  Almost no surprises:


US Senate

Brunner 33%

Steelman 27%

Akin 17%



John Brunner retains superior fire-power.  Sarah Steelman needs a last week surge.   If there’s any chance to gets Sarah Palin in state for an endorsement swing, that’s the sort of stunt that could do it.


McCaskill all three…



Governor GOP

Spence 41%

Randles 15%

John Weiler (anyone?) 3%

Sauer 1%



The poll first asked favorabilities.  And it asked about Bill Randles but not Fred Sauer, perhaps giving Randles that bump a few questions later.




Nixon 48%

Spence 39%



Tighter than I would have guessed.




Dem LG

Montee 28%

Lampe 13%

Haas 9%

Baker 5%



Susan Montee leading as expected, but Judy Baker running 4th? Behind Bill Hass!  The explanation is either a quirk in the poll or the fact that Baker actually has very little name ID and hasn’t done much to change that.



Kinder 47%

Lager 21%



The poll shows Brad Lager in deep trouble: down 25+ and the campaign conversation hasn’t amazingly been turned by the Kinder campaign, away from questions about Peter Kinder’s own personal behavior to questions about Lager’s trustworthiness.



Latest on Lager

Sunday, Columbia Daily Tribune’s Rudi Keller wrote about a business relationship between Sen. Brad Lager, KCPL’s Chuck Caisley and consultant Jared Craighead, raising questions about appropriate disclosures and conflicts of interest. Read it here.


According to the article, the three started an LLC – Triad Asset Management LLC – in 2007 to run a Maid-Rite sandwich shop.  It was jointly owned by Lager Enterprises LLC, Stonewall Holdings LLC (Caisley’s entity) and Highland Consulting LLC (Craighead’s entity).


The shop failed in 2008.  However the LLC does remain active according to the secretary of state’s website.


For good government folks, whether the letter of the law has been followed or not, it’s an arrangement which reeks of Jefferson City’s incestuous culture, and creates conflicts of interest which shouldn’t exist.


Lager chairs the Commerce Committee which passes and kills legislation impacting the utilities industry every session.  Caisley works for one of the largest utilities.


And Craighead as a lobbyist, creates similar possible conflicts.  For example, his client Centurylink could have benefited from any number of actions by the Commerce Committee or Lager himself on the Senate floor.


Multiple sources say more there are follow-on articles coming on this.  That’s because once you have three plugged in individuals in a business arrangement, they all have multiple other relationships that necessarily create lots of potential conflicts of interest.




“If any donors bail from Lager, it won't be his Big Three: Sinquefield-Humphreys-Herzog. They bought in big and they are stuck. They may lose big on their obscene six-figure investments in Lager. Funny how rich guys can make such bad investment decisions when it comes to investing in candidates.”



If You Own a Radio

Lacy Clay and Russ Carnahan on KMOX in St. Louis at 10 a.m.  Peter Kinder and Brad Lager on KCUR in Kansas City at 11 a.m.




Via the peerless Combest, SEMO Times interview the ever-fascinating Jason CrowellRead it here.



Via Axiom Morning’s News, Politico says that Voter ID laws will help Republicans in swing states.  Read it here.



Missouri Association for Career and Technical Education awarded Rep. Tom Shively with its Legislative Recognition Award.

St. Louis American sitting out Senate 5 on their endorsements.



$5K+ Contributions

Citizens for Largent - $11,247 from Realtors Political Action Committee.

Lavender for State Rep - $7,650 from Missouri House Democratic Campaign Committee.

Citizens for Timothy Jones - $10,000 from Pyramid Home Health Services.

McGhee for Senate - $19,766 from Club for Gowth PAC.

RGA Missouri PAC - $250,000 from Republican Governors Association.

MO Petroleum Marketers + Convenience Store Assoc PAC - $6,000 from JD Street & Company.

Schoeller for Missouri - $5,005 from Citizens for Timothy Jones.

Montee for Missouri - $505,000 from Susan Montee.

Montee for Auditor - $505,000 from Montee for Missouri.

Citizens for Largent - $12,000 from Supporters of Health Research & Treatments.

Friends of Peter Kinder - $10,000 from Gary Rust.

MO Society of Anesthesiologists Political Action Committee - $30,000 from Anesthesia Associates of Kansas City.

Citizens to Elect John Wright - $9,000 from John Wright.

Doug Libla for Senate - $5,025 from Dempsey for Senate.

Progress KC Committee - $35,000 from Heavy Constructor Industry Advancement Fund.

Missouri Senate Campaign Committee - $7,000 from Parson for State Senate.

Sandra Reeves for Senate - $10,000 from Hawthorne House.

Citizens to Elect Kurt Schaefer - $10,000 from Dempsey for Senate.

Citizens for Ryan Silvey - $5,025 from Dempsey for Senate.

Citizens to Elect Kurt Schaefer - $10,000 from Friends of Munzlinger.

MO House Democratic Campaign Committee - $10,000 from AT&T

Citizens for Bordwell - $6,5000 from Forest Hills Properties.

CWA District 6 – Political Education Committee - $12,780 from CWA COPE.

Pearce for Senate - $11,186 from Realtors Political Action Comm.

McGhee for Senate - $69,665 from Missouri Club for Growth PAC.




Happy birthday to former Rep. Bruce Darrough (59).