Monday, September 24, 2012
MOScout Poll: State of the Statewide Elections
We polled late last week (September 20). Here are top lines from 817 registered voters, likely to vote in November. Margin of error +/- 3.4%. I found a few things surprising, which is why you poll I suppose. Highest among those surprises is the still tight McCaskill-Akin race.
1. What is the most important problem facing the State of Missouri right now, unemployment and jobs, government spending, education or health care?
Unemployment and Jobs 47.2%
Government Spending 18.4%
Education 17.2%
Health Care 17.2%
Jobs still dominant issue of the election cycle.
2. If the election for President was today, would you vote for Barack Obama, the Democrat or Mitt Romney the Republican?
Obama 44.3%
Romney 50.2%
Undecided 5.5%
Romney opening nice lead compared to our last poll six weeks ago. Our 6-point Romney lead is slightly less than Real Clear Politics 7.3 average of other polls.
3. And for U.S. Senator, if the election was today, would you vote for Todd Akin, the Republican or Claire McCaskill, the Democrat?
Akin 47.5%
McCaskill 46.5%
Undecided 6.0%
Last time we had McCaskill up one point. That means that despite all of Akin’s missteps and unforced errors we’re still neck-and-neck here. I do suspect that McCaskill has been pulling some punches. But with the passing of tomorrow’s deadline for Akin to drop that may change.
Furthermore, back in November 2011 where respondents were asked whether or not they would return Claire McCaskill to office. 29% said they would re-elect her, 26% said they would consider another candidate and 45% said they would vote to replace her. That number may be firmer that I’d believed. Regardless of Akin’s flaws, it appears that a significant number of Missouri voters still find reasons to support him.
4. And for Governor, if the election was today, would you vote for Jay Nixon, the Democrat or Dave Spence, the Republican?
Nixon 54.9%
Spence 38.3%
Undecided 6.8%
Spence needs his new attacks to move the dial in this race if he’s going to have a shot.
5. And for Lieutenant Governor if the election was today, would you vote for Peter Kinder, the Republican or Susan Montee, the Democrat?
Kinder 48.8%
Montee 40.8%
Undecided 10.4%
Lager’s negative attacks in the primary seem to have left no permanent damage to Kinder.
6. And for Attorney General if the election was today, would you vote for Chris Koster, the Democrat or Ed Martin, the Republican?
Koster 51.1%
Martin 39.2%
Undecided 9.7%
Koster has opened up a wide lead. His cash advantage will make it hard for Martin to overtake him. Koster and Nixon are the only two in this survey over 50%.
7. And for Secretary of State if the election was today, would you vote for Shane Schoeller, the Republican or Jason Kander, the Democrat?
Schoeller 44.3%
Kander 36.9%
Undecided 18.8%
The lower profile of the secretary of state’s race is resulting in a lot more undecided even as we enter final stretch. Top of the ticket undecided in 5-6% range. These lesser races are 17-19% undecided.
8. And for State Treasurer if the election was today, would you vote for Clint Zweifel, the Democrat or Cole McNary, the Republican?
Zweifel 41.6%
McNary 41.7%
Undecided 16.7%
McNary holding tough in this poll. But with far greater resources for the final push, one assumes that Zweifel converts more undecided.
9. For statistical purposes only, are you a man or woman?
MALE 43.2%
FEMALE 56.8%
10. What is your age?
Age 18-49 41.7%
Age 50-64 26.3%
Age 65+ 32.0%
11. Do you consider yourself a Republican, Democrat or Independent?
Republican 34.9%
Democrat 33.6%
Independent 31.5%
Full Poll Report
See the full poll report (nifty bar charts etc) here.
Stokes Hearts Carlson
Today is the “redo” of the death-match between Reps. Susan Carlson and Stacey Newman. Newman won the August primary by a single vote. After it was discovered that some precincts distributed faulty ballots, a court ordered a do over. Hence today.
Late Saturday night, Carlson picked up an improbable endorsement from Republican committeeman David Stokes. (Stokes is also an analyst at the Rex Sinquefield funded Show Me Institute). There’s nothing to stop Republicans from voting in today’s election.
From Stokes’ twitter-feed:
“Winner of Monday's Dem primay special election will b our next state rep in 87th distict. Join me in voting for Susan Carlson 4 state rep.”
“I don't agree with Susan Carlson on anything, but @ least she tries 2 b a serious legislator. Her opponent is all about stunts & gimmicks.”
Rumorville: Jones 2016
Speaker Tim Jones may well have half a mill on-hand when the September quarter ends. That’s after his large checks to HRCC and other Republican candidates.
For those who have started a 2016 file (it’s never too early right?), put Jones in mix. Crystal ball imaginations would have him serving the next two years as speaker, then announcing for a statewide office in 2016. That’d give him two years to campaign statewide on his own pace and schedule unencumbered by legislative demands and distractions.
Bits
Aaron Washburn says via Facebook that he’s heading to Texas… “The Washburn's are moving to Austin. I accepted a position as Executive Director of the Texas Dental Association today. We are excited, but are going really miss everyone in Missouri.”
NYTimes article today reports on about states that are or aren’t setting up exchanges for the federal healthcare law. Read it here.
The left-wing is working to build their alternative to ALEC. It’s called ALICE. See it here.
Lobbyist Registrations
From the Pelopidas website:
Brad Bauer added Novartis Vaccines and Diagnostics.
Tracey Gasperi added UCB Inc.
Connie B Hamacher and Jerome Offord Jr. added Lincoln University.
Erin M Cobb deleted The Boeing Company.
$5K+ Contributions
Citizens for Casey Clark - $7,200 from Missouri House Democratic Campaign Committee.
Friends to Elect Cole McNary - $15,000 from Lewis and Clark Council Ozarks Mountain Forum.
Missourians for Responsible Lending - $6,500 from Missouri Progressive Vote Coalition.
Give Missourians for a Raise - $6,500 from Missouri Progressive Vote Coalition.
Missourians for Ed Martin - $25,000 from Hunter Engineering Company.
Missourians for Fair and Impartial Courts Committee - $20,000 from Shook Hardy & Bacon LLP.
Missourians for Fair and Impartial Courts Committee - $10,000 from Stinson Morrison Hecker LLP.
Montee for Missouri - $10,000 from Hoisting Engineers Local 513 Political & Educational Fund.
Kander for Missouri - $5,012 from Jeffrey Fort.
Kander for Missouri - $10,000 from Hoisting Engineers Local 513.
Jay Nixon for Missouri – $7,500 from Greater Kansas City Building & Construction Trades Council.
Jay Nixon for Missouri – $15,000 from Sheet Metal Workers Local No. 2 Legislative Action Committee.
Jay Nixon for Missouri – $10,000 from Pipefitters Local Union 533 Volunteer Political Fund.
Jay Nixon for Missouri – $10,000 from Shaffer Lombardo Shurin.
Missourians for Fair and Impartial Courts Committee - $45,000 from Missouri Institute for Justice.
Friends of Mitch Richards - $5,001 from Garry Johnson.
Friends of Lincoln Hough - $7,500 from Lewis and Clark Council Ozarks Mountain Forum.
Jay Nixon for Missouri - $10,000 from Callahan for Missouri.
Jay Nixon for Missouri - $11,533 from Jeffrey Fort.
Putting Kids First in Boone County - $20,000 from Children’s Foundation of Mid-America.
Scott Sifton for Senate - $7,500 from Missouri Democratic State Committee State Account.
Scott Sifton for Senate - $25,000 from Democratic Senatorial Committee.
Mary Still for Senate - $25,000 from MO Senate Democratic Campaign Committee.
Citizens for Swinger - $25,000 from Democratic Senatorial Committee.
Missourians for Koster - $10,000 from Hoisting Engineers Local 513 Political & Educational Fund.
Missourians for Koster - $10,000 from Cenpatico Behavioral Health LLC.
Missourians for Koster - $10,000 from Advantage by Bridgeway Health Sollutions.
Jay Nixon for Missouri - $10,000 from Hoisting Engineers Local 513 Political & Educational Fund.
Friends of Peter Kinder - $7,500 from August Busch III.
Friends of Peter Kinder - $10,000 from Drury Southwest Corporation.
Birthdays
Happy birthdays to former Reps. Kevin Wilson (54) and Terry Witte (60).